Severe Thunderstorm Warning 289, NWS Wichita, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
642 PM CDT MON JUL 20 2009

.AVIATION...00Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT MUCH OF THE AREA THIS
EVENING...AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTHWEST INTERACTS WITH A FEW FRONTAL BOUNDARIES ACROSS THE AREA.
STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. LATER THIS
EVENING/OVERNIGHT...STORMS OVER NORTHWEST KS AND/OR NE MAY
CONSOLIDATE INTO A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX OR TWO AND SURGE SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA...INCREASING THE DAMAGING WIND THREAT. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR RADAR TRENDS AND ADD TEMPO GROUPS FOR
THUNDERSTORMS AS NEEDED. STOUT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL LATE
TONIGHT-TOMORROW...ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CIGS
SPREADING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA.

KLEINSASSER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 252 PM CDT MON JUL 20 2009/

DISCUSSION...
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES WILL FOCUS ON AN ACTIVE NORTHWEST FLOW
REGIME AND TIMING OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST KANSAS THROUGH THE WORK WEEK.

TONIGHT
CURRENT SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A COUPLE SHORT WAVES
MOVING SOUTHEAST VIA UPPER NORTHWEST FLOW WITH ONE WAVE NOW OVER
NEBRASKA...AND A SECOND MORE ROBUST WAVE APPROACHING THE WESTERN
DAKOTAS. THE FIRST WAVE WAS SPARKING OFF SOME ACTIVITY THIS
AFTERNOON OVER EASTERN SECTIONS OF KANSAS/NEBRASKA...AND COULD
HELP INITIATE MORE STORMS THIS EVENING FURTHER TO THE WEST.
MEANWHILE...THE SECOND MORE ROBUST WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO RACE
SOUTHEAST AND SHOULD GENERATE MORE ACTIVITY TO THE NORTH WHICH WILL
THEN SPREAD SOUTHWARD INTO KANSAS TONIGHT. THE STRENGTH OF THE
MID-UPPER LEVEL WINDS IN COMBINATION WITH STRONG LOW LEVEL STORM
RELATIVE INFLOW WINDS COULD RESULT IN A SEVERE FORWARD PROPAGATING
MCS LATE TONIGHT...WITH THE EASTERN HALF OF KANSAS GREATEST AT
RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS. SOME AREAS COULD ALSO SEE SOME HEAVY
RAINFALL TONIGHT BUT DUE TO EXPECTED FORWARD SPEED OF THE MCS THIS
WOULD MAKE HEAVY RAINFALL MORE ISOLATED.

TUE-THUR
PRECIPITATION ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST AND SOUTH OF AREA
TUESDAY MORNING WITH A COOLER SUMMER DAY IN STORE FOR KANSAS.
WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO START OFF WITH PLEASANT WEATHER CONDITIONS
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS BEFORE THE NEXT WEATHER IMPULSE TRACKS
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WAVE
COULD GENERATE ANOTHER ROUND OF NORTHWEST FLOW PRECIPITATION FOR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING...AS MODELS SHOW ISENTROPIC
LIFT INCREASING WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE 310-315K LAYER. THE ACTIVE
PATTERN WILL CONTINUE FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AS YET ANOTHER WAVE
PROGGED BY THE MODELS TRACKS SOUTHEAST VIA NORTHWEST FLOW.

EXTEND: FRI-MON
LATEST MODEL TRENDS IN GFS ENSEMBLES/ECMWF MODEL SHOW PRONOUNCED
UPPER TROUGH AXIS REMAINING ANCHORED OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...THUS KEEPING THE CENTRAL PLAINS IN A NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME
ALOFT WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE OF TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW
CLIMATOLOGICAL JULY VALUES. A COLD FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES TO FOLLOW FOR THE
WEEKEND. BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE ON FRIDAY/FRIDAY
NIGHT WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES LOOK LESS
FAVORABLE FOR THE WEEKEND...BUT ANY WEAK IMPULSE DROPPING SOUTHEAST
IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME(WHICH MODELS WOULD HAVE A DIFFICULT
TIME PICKING UP THIS FAR OUT IN TIME) COULD BACK THE MID-LEVEL WINDS
AND CREATE ENOUGH ISENTROPIC LIFT TO SPARK OFF SOME ACTIVITY. WE
WILL HOLD ONTO SMALL PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR SATURDAY BUT KEEP
THINGS DRY FOR SUNDAY-MONDAY.

JAKUB

AVIATION...18Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX ACROSS ERN KS CONTINUES TO WANE AT THIS TIME
..BUT CONVECTION NORTHWEST OF KCNU HAS INTENSIFIED SOME.  SO WILL
KEEP A TEMPO GROUP FOR TSRA IN THIS TAF FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS
SOME MORE CONVECTION WILL DRIFT SOUTHEAST.  THE REST OF THE TAF
SITES WILL SEE VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.

AS SUNSET APPROACHES...FOCUS BEGINS TO SHIFT TO THE NORTH OR NW OF
THE KRSL/KSLN TAF SITES.  CONVECTION LOOKS TO REDEVELOP IN THIS AREA
AND DIVE SOUTH TOWARDS CENTRAL KS AFTER 00Z/TUE.  THIS CONVECTION
LOOKS TO PROPAGATE SOUTH DURING THE 04-09Z/TUE TIME FRAME...BUT
TIMING IS UNCERTAIN. WILL CERTAINLY GO WITH A TEMPO GROUP FOR TSRA
IN KRSL/KSLN FOR NOW...BUT WILL GO WITH A VCTS IN KHUT/KICT FOR LATE
THIS EVENING TO COVER THIS CHANCE...BUT NOT CERTAIN ENOUGH IN TIMING
TO INCLUDE A TEMPO GROUP FOR KICT/KHUT JUST YET.  WILL EVENTUALLY
SEE CONVECTION DRIFT SOUTH AND EAST INTO THE KCNU TAF AFTER
06Z/TUE...SO WILL INCLUDE A VCTS IN THIS LOCATION LATE TONIGHT.
MODEL SOUNDINGS HINT AT SOME MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLY HANGING
AROUND CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KS TAF SITES EARLY ON TUE AFTER
CONVECTION MOVES OUT. NOT ALOT OF CONFIDENCE IN THIS
DEVELOPING...BUT WILL AT LEAST INCLUDE A SCATTERED CLOUD MENTION
AROUND 2500 FEET FOR NOW.

KETCHAM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    66  83  63  87 /  70  20  10  10
HUTCHINSON      65  82  62  87 /  60  10  10  10
NEWTON          65  82  62  86 /  80  20  10  10
ELDORADO        66  81  60  86 /  90  30  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   68  83  63  88 /  70  20  10  10
RUSSELL         64  83  60  88 /  60  10  10  10
GREAT BEND      64  83  61  88 /  60  10  10  10
SALINA          64  82  61  87 /  80  10   0  10
MCPHERSON       65  82  61  87 /  70  20  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     68  82  62  87 /  90  60  10  10
CHANUTE         67  81  61  85 /  90  60  10  10
IOLA            66  81  60  85 /  90  60  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    67  81  62  86 /  90  60  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
413 PM CDT MON JUL 20 2009

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-212115-
RUSSELL-LINCOLN-BARTON-ELLSWORTH-SALINE-RICE-MCPHERSON-MARION-CHASE-
RENO-HARVEY-BUTLER-GREENWOOD-WOODSON-ALLEN-KINGMAN-SEDGWICK-HARPER-
SUMNER-COWLEY-ELK-WILSON-NEOSHO-CHAUTAUQUA-MONTGOMERY-LABETTE-
413 PM CDT MON JUL 20 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS...
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER NEBRASKA AND SPREAD SOUTHWARD TOWARDS
CENTRAL KANSAS THIS EVENING...AS A COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH ACROSS
THE REGION. THE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE NUMEROUS
OVERNIGHT...AND COULD MERGE INTO LARGE COMPLEX OF STORMS WHICH
WOULD THEN MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS KANSAS. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE LATE EVENING HOURS...HOWEVER
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL WITH
LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL BECOME THE MAIN HAZARDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
BE POSSIBLE DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON TUESDAY...MAINLY
ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY ACROSS THE REGION...AS UPPER LEVEL WEATHER
DISTURBANCES SLIDE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. STRONG
TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE BE NEEDED ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN KANSAS TONIGHT.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION...SEE OUR
WEBPAGE AT (LOWERCASE) HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/WICHITA/HWO/HWO.PHP

CJ

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