Severe Thunderstorm Warning 28, NWS Wichita, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
625 PM CDT MON MAR 9 2009

.AVIATION...00Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
LATEST RADAR LOOP WAS SHOWING SEVERAL STORMS CONTINUING TO DEVELOP
EAST OF THE KANSAS TURNPIKE. THE STRONGEST STORM APPEARS TO BE
NEAR THE KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA BORDER WITH THIS STORM FOLLOWING
CLOSER TO THE SURFACE BASED WARM FRONT. THIS STORM AND THE STORMS
DEVELOPING NEAR THE DRY LINE WILL CERTAINLY NEED TO BE WATCHED AS
THE EVENING PROGRESSES. THESE STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL OF BECOME
SUPERCELLULAR WITH EVEN A THREAT FOR SOME TORNADOES BASED ON VERY
FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES AND GOOD DESTABILIZATION MOVING IN FROM
OKLAHOMA. MEANWHILE...THE COLD FRONT JUST MOVED THROUGH RUSSELL
DURING THE LAST HOUR. THIS COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO DIVE SOUTH
THROUGH THE SLN(02Z)/HUT(07Z)/ICT(09Z) TAF SITES TONIGHT. CEILINGS
MAY NOT DROP RIGHT AWAY BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT THEY HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO LOWER INTO THE IFR CATEGORY A COUPLE OF HOURS AFTER
THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH. THE COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO PASS
THROUGH CNU TAF SITE TOMORROW MORNING AROUND 17Z WITH CEILINGS
LOWERING ACROSS THAT SITE SHORTLY AFTERWARDS.

COX
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 PM CDT MON MAR 9 2009/

DISCUSSION...
FORECAST CONCERNS...CONVECTIVE TRENDS/SEVERE POTENTIAL THIS
EVENING...AND CHANCE OF FREEZING PRECIP LATE TONIGHT.

CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH INITIAL ELEVATED MOISTURE FLUX AND
SHORTWAVE MOVING OUT ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL SHIFT MAINLY
NORTHEAST OF THE AREA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...AIRMASS
CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE SOUTH OF THE BORDER...WHERE ML CAPE
VALUES HAVE EXCEEDED 1000J/KG IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. ADDITIONAL
HEATING IN THE WAKE OF THE CURRENT CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS WILL FURTHER DESTABILIZE THE AIRMASS
ACROSS THE AREA...WITH RENEWED SURFACE BASED STORMS BECOMING MORE
LIKELY BY EARLY THIS EVENING. STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND MODERATE
INSTABILITY WILL RESULT IN ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS WITH SUPERCELLS
POSSIBLE. LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN
RISK...THOUGH ANY STORMS THAT CAN REMAIN MORE DISCRETE WILL HAVE
A CONDITIONAL RISK FOR TORNADOES...MAINLY EAST OF THE KANSAS
TURNPIKE. MEANWHILE...MUCH COLDER AIR IS POISED NORTH OF THE
STRONG FRONT/BAROCLINIC ZONE FROM NORTHWEST KANSAS INTO EASTERN
NEBRASKA. A SHALLOW SEGMENT OF THIS COLD AIR WILL OOZE SOUTH INTO
NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS LATE TONIGHT BEHIND THE INITIAL SURFACE LOW
WHICH MIGRATES EAST-NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT. THERE IS A MODEST
CONCERN THAT TEMPERATURES COULD DROP BELOW FREEZING NORTH OF
I-70...WITH CHANCES FOR DRIZZLE TURNING TO SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE.
ONLY LIGHT AMOUNTS OF ICE...IF ANY...ARE EXPECTED...THOUGH THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT SHIFTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR TRENDS WITH
COLD AIR AND ANY LIGHT PRECIP ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS.

THE MAIN UPPER TROF WILL LIFT BODILY NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS ON TUESDAY...WITH MUCH COLDER AIR
OVERSPREADING THE ENTIRE AREA BY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WILL
CONTINUE TO CARRY SOME LINGERING PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS
SOUTHEAST KANSAS BEFORE ENDING IN THE AFTERNOON. THE FRONTAL
POSITION AND SOUTHWARD ADVANCE ACROSS THE AREA WILL BE KEY IN
HOW WARM SOME AREAS GET...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50...AND
WILL SHOW A VERY TIGHT MAX TEMPERATURE GRADIENT FROM NORTHWEST
TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY. THE MODIFIED
CANADIAN/ARCTIC AIR WILL SETTLE SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
MID-WEEK...SENDING TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW CLIMO THROUGH AT
LEAST THURSDAY.

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAVE NOT SHOWN MUCH CONSISTENCY IN
HANDLING ENERGY WITHIN THE DEVELOPING SOUTHERN STREAM THRU
NEXT WEEKEND...RESULTING IN LOW TO MODEST CONFIDENCE IN THE
OUTER PERIODS OF THE FORECAST. HAVE KEPT FORECAST DRY WITH
A GRADUAL MODERATING TREND...THOUGH THE LATEST ECMWF WOULD
GIVE A BIT MORE SUPPORT TO THE GFS BY SUNDAY OR MONDAY FOR
AT LEAST SLIGHT PRECIP CHANCES. WILL LET NIGHT SHIFT TAKE
A LOOK AT 00Z RUNS AND ADD CHANCES IF CONTINUITY CONTINUES
TO IMPROVE.

DARMOFAL

AVIATION...18Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS TAF ISSUANCE. WATER VAPOR SHOWING
UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL PLAINS AT THIS TIME. DEW
POINTS HAVE INCREASED CLOSE TO 20 DEGREES OVER THE PAST 3 HOURS
OVER EXTREME SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KS. ALL OF THIS AIDING IN
KICKING OFF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS IN THESE
AREAS. STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS A POSSIBILITY AT TAF SITES
ICT AND CNU LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. EXPECT CEILINGS TO
DROP BELOW IFR NEAR THE 00Z TIME FRAME AT ALL TAF SITES.

SPURGEON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    46  60  24  42 /  50  10   0   0
HUTCHINSON      39  52  21  40 /  40  10   0   0
NEWTON          44  56  22  39 /  50  10   0   0
ELDORADO        51  64  23  40 /  60  10   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   52  68  26  45 /  70  10   0   0
RUSSELL         30  42  16  35 /  30  10   0   0
GREAT BEND      32  45  18  39 /  20  10   0   0
SALINA          36  48  20  37 /  40  10   0   0
MCPHERSON       39  51  20  39 /  40  10   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     57  72  28  44 /  80  20  10   0
CHANUTE         56  69  25  41 /  80  30  10   0
IOLA            55  68  24  39 /  80  30  10   0
PARSONS-KPPF    57  72  27  43 /  80  30  10   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
419 PM CDT MON MAR 9 2009

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-102130-
RUSSELL-LINCOLN-BARTON-ELLSWORTH-SALINE-RICE-MCPHERSON-MARION-CHASE-
RENO-HARVEY-BUTLER-GREENWOOD-WOODSON-ALLEN-KINGMAN-SEDGWICK-HARPER-
SUMNER-COWLEY-ELK-WILSON-NEOSHO-CHAUTAUQUA-MONTGOMERY-LABETTE-
419 PM CDT MON MAR 9 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS...
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS
EVENING...MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE KANSAS TURNPIKE. LARGE HAIL
UP TO GOLF BALL SIZE...DAMAGING WINDS TO 70 MPH AND TORNADOES ARE
POSSIBLE.

SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE AND FOG IS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT ACROSS A
PORTION OF CENTRAL KANSAS. A TRACE OF ICE OR GLAZE IS POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER IS POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA ON
TUESDAY. HIGH FIRE DANGER IS POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
ON WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS...MAINLY EAST OF
THE KANSAS TURNPIKE.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION...SEE OUR
WEBPAGE AT (LOWERCASE) HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/WICHITA/HWO/HWO.PHP

KED

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
926 PM CDT MON MAR 09 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0858 PM     TSTM WND GST     BURDEN                  37.31N 96.75W
03/09/2009  E60 MPH          COWLEY             KS   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

&&

LFW