Severe Thunderstorm Warning 253, NWS Wichita, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1114 PM CDT WED JUL 8 2009

.AVIATION...06Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE
FLINT HILLS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...AND POSSIBLY
SOUTHEAST KANSAS TOWARD DAWN. EXPECT ADDITIONAL CONVECTION TO
STAY EAST OF THE KICT-KSLN TAF SITES...BUT WILL LIKELY AFFECT
THE KCNU TAF EITHER SIDE OF 12Z...SO OPTED FOR TEMPO GROUP THERE.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION ACROSS
THE REST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE FORECAST VALID PERIOD. GUSTY
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL AFTER DAWN AND LIKELY
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING ON THURSDAY.

KED

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 638 PM CDT WED JUL 8 2009/

AVIATION...00Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ACROSS PARTS OF
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS AFTER MIDNIGHT. EXPECT THAT
CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL KANSAS AND MOVE
SOUTHEASTWARD...AND WOULD MAINLY AFFECT KSLN AND KCNU. FOR NOW
WILL JUST MENTION SOME CB AT THESE TWO TAF SITES...AS CONFIDENCE
IS STORMS DEVELOPING IS FAIRLY HIGH BUT WHETHER OR NOT THEY WILL
AFFECT AIRPORTS SPECIFICALLY IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT.
OTHERWISE...GUSTY WINDS ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAY THURSDAY...AND
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

SCHRECK

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 324 PM CDT WED JUL 8 2009/

DISCUSSION...
FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS WILL BE SLIGHT THUNDERSTORM CHANCES OVER THE
NEXT 7 DAYS...ALONG WITH THE HEAT.

LONE STRONG/SEVERE SUPERCELL CURRENTLY MOVING SOUTH ALONG
INSTABILITY AXIS/MID-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS FAR EASTERN KS MAY
CLIP PORTIONS OF WOODSON AND ALLEN COUNTY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
HOURS. HOWEVER...THINKING THAT THIS ISOLATED ACTIVITY MAY TEND TO
EVENTUALLY WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO A MORE STABLE AIRMASS.
ADDITIONALLY...A STRAY ISOLATED STORM MAY DEVELOP ACROSS
NORTHERN/NORTHEAST KS...ALONG A REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. THIS
ACTIVITY COULD CLIP NORTHERN/NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE AREA LATE
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. THERE IS GREATER CONFIDENCE IN AN MCS
DEVELOPING AFTER MIDNIGHT...AS LOW-LEVEL JET VEERS...INCREASING LIFT
ALONG THE LOW-MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE CURRENTLY IN PLACE. THINKING
BEST CHANCES WILL BE EAST OF I-135...ALTHOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT
ISOLATED ACTIVITY WEST OF I-135. DESPITE ONLY MODEST
INSTABILITY...STRONG DIRECTIONAL DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND GOOD
STORM-RELATIVE INFLOW COULD PROMOTE A FEW SEVERE STORMS...CAPABLE OF
LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...ALTHOUGH NOT
ANTICIPATING A HIGH-END EVENT BY ANY MEANS. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD
PERSIST INTO THURSDAY MORNING OVER EAST-CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST KS.

A SUBTLY ACTIVE PATTERN EXPECTED THE NEXT 5-7 DAYS. THE BUILDING
MID/UPPER RIDGE CENTER IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS/SOUTHERN ROCKIES...KEEPING THE FORECAST AREA IN A
WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT REGIME. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR VARIOUS WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARIES TO WOBBLE IN THE VICINITY OF THE FORECAST
AREA...AS SUBTLE MID/UPPER DISTURBANCES RACE EAST/SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SLIGHT CHANCES OF
THUNDERSTORMS JUST ABOUT EACH DAY AND NIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA CLOSEST TO THE STRONGER
WEST/NORTHWESTERLIES. FOR THE MOST PART...AM NOT ANTICIPATING ANY
WIDESPREAD AND/OR HIGH-END SEVERE EVENTS...MAINLY DUE TO VERY WARM
MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND RELATIVELY WEAK FLOW ALOFT. HOWEVER...A
FEW MAINLY NOCTURNAL THROUGH MORNING STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
COMPLEXES CANNOT BE RULED OUT...ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.

HEAT WILL BE ANOTHER ISSUE. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
SUGGEST ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS...WITH
850MB TEMPERATURES APPROACHING AND EVEN EXCEEDING 30C. NORMAL HIGHS
THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE LOW 90S. PENDING MORNING CONVECTION HAMPERING
HIGHS...THINKING THURSDAY-FRIDAY HIGHS WILL REACH 90S-100S...WARMEST
ON FRIDAY. IN FACT...SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA COULD
VERY WELL EXCEED 105F ON FRIDAY...GIVEN THE EXPECTED AMOUNT OF
MIXING OCCURS. HEAT INDICES WILL BE MARGINAL FOR A HEAT ADVISORY DUE
TO DEWPOINTS MIXING OUT FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST...SO WILL HOLD
OFF ON ISSUING ANY HEADLINES AT THIS TIME. SATURDAY TEMPERATURES
WILL BE TRICKY AS A COLD FRONT OOZES SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. LATEST
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO TREND FARTHER SOUTH WITH THIS FRONT...SO THE
EXTREME TEMPERATURES MAY BE CONFINED TO FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

KLEINSASSER

AVIATION...18Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
COMPLEX OF CONVECTION QUICKLY MOVED SOUTH OF THE AREA INTO OK EARLY
TODAY...WITH JUST LINGERING MID CLOUDS ACROSS THE KICT AND KHUT TAF
SITES. FOR THE REST OF THE DAY EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FOR ALL THE TAF
SITES AS CAPPING INVERSION ALOFT KEEPS PRECIP CHANCES NIL.

CONCERN THEN SHIFTS TO ANOTHER ROUND OF NOCTURNAL CONVECTION
EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KS LATE TONIGHT.
MID LEVEL LIFT AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY LOOKS TO INCREASE ACROSS
THIS AREA BETWEEN 06-09Z/THU WITH A COUPLE AREAS OF CONVECTION
POSSIBLE TO THE EAST OF INTERSTATE 135 AFTER 09Z/THU. THIS WILL
POSSIBLY AFFECT THE KSLN AND EVENTUALLY THE KCNU TAF SITES AS THIS
AREA OF STORMS AGAIN SLIDES TO THE SOUTH DURING THE 09-15Z/THU TIME
FRAME.  SO HAVE INSERTED A VCTS FOR THIS CHANCE.  NOT TOO CONFIDENT
ENOUGH IN PLACEMENT OF THE CONVECTION TO GO WITH A TEMPO GROUP JUST
YET.

ALSO NOT CONFIDENT IN KICT AND KHUT STAYING DRY AS WELL...EARLY ON
THU...BUT WILL KEEP MENTION OF TSRA OUT OF THESE SITES AND WAIT TILL
LATER TAF ISSUANCES TO INSERT IF NEEDED.

KETCHAM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    74 101  76 103 /  30  10  10  10
HUTCHINSON      74 101  75 102 /  30  10  10  20
NEWTON          73  99  76 102 /  30  10  10  20
ELDORADO        73  98  76 102 /  30  10  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   74 101  76 103 /  30  10  10  10
RUSSELL         74 101  74  99 /  10  10  20  20
GREAT BEND      74 102  74 100 /  10  10  20  20
SALINA          74  99  75  99 /  30  10  20  20
MCPHERSON       74 100  75 101 /  30  10  20  20
COFFEYVILLE     73  96  75 101 /  30  30  10  10
CHANUTE         72  96  75  99 /  30  30  10  10
IOLA            71  95  75  98 /  30  30  20  10
PARSONS-KPPF    72  96  75 100 /  30  30  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
943 PM CDT WED JUL 8 2009

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-100245-
RUSSELL-LINCOLN-BARTON-ELLSWORTH-SALINE-RICE-MCPHERSON-MARION-CHASE-
RENO-HARVEY-BUTLER-GREENWOOD-WOODSON-ALLEN-KINGMAN-SEDGWICK-HARPER-
SUMNER-COWLEY-ELK-WILSON-NEOSHO-CHAUTAUQUA-MONTGOMERY-LABETTE-
943 PM CDT WED JUL 8 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS...
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT FOR AREAS
GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 135. QUARTER SIZE TO GOLF
BALL HAIL AND WINDS OF 50 TO 60 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE...ALONG WITH
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
INTO THURSDAY MORNING MAINLY ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
KANSAS.

PERIODIC THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE FROM THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND INTO NEXT WEEK...MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF TO NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF KANSAS...AS VARIOUS
FRONTAL BOUNDARIES STALL ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WHILE
WIDESPREAD OR SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EPISODES ARE NOT
ANTICIPATED...A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

FINALLY...AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING HEAT INDICES WILL CLIMB
INTO THE 100 TO 105 DEGREE RANGE ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA ON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...AND MAINLY ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST KANSAS ON SATURDAY. HEAT INDICES IN THE 100 TO 105
DEGREE RANGE MAY CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA INTO AT LEAST
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TONIGHT MAINLY EAST OF
INTERSTATE 135.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION...SEE OUR
WEBPAGE AT (LOWERCASE) HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/WICHITA/HWO/HWO.PHP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1112 PM CDT WED JUL 08 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1111 PM     HAIL             GALVA                   38.38N 97.54W
07/08/2009  E0.75 INCH       MCPHERSON          KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

SCHRECK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1134 PM CDT WED JUL 08 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1112 PM     HAIL             GALVA                   38.38N 97.54W
07/08/2009  E1.00 INCH       MCPHERSON          KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

SCHRECK

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1144 PM CDT WED JUL 8 2009

KSZ069-083-090515-
BUTLER-SEDGWICK-
1144 PM CDT WED JUL 8 2009

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WICHITA HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ALERT FOR BUTLER AND SEDGWICK COUNTIES...

AT 1144 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE
TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 6 MILES NORTHEAST OF NORTHEAST
WICHITA...OR 14 MILES NORTHEAST OF DOWNTOWN WICHITA...AND MOVING
SOUTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

PENNY TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL IS EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

BE PREPARED TO TAKE SHELTER IN THE EVENT THESE STORMS INTENSIFY AND
BECOME SEVERE, OR A WARNING IS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

CARUSO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1147 PM CDT WED JUL 08 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1131 PM     FLOOD            1 SE ANDOVER            37.68N 97.13W
07/08/2009                   BUTLER             KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            A TRAINED SPOTTER REPORTS 6 TO 8 INCHES OF WATER FLOWING
            OVER THE ROAD AT 110TH AND PRAIRIE CREEK.

&&

SCHRECK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1149 PM CDT WED JUL 08 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1143 PM     HAIL             3 E ROSE HILL           37.57N 97.08W
07/08/2009  E1.50 INCH       BUTLER             KS   AMATEUR RADIO

&&

SCHRECK

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