Severe Thunderstorm Warning 251, NWS Wichita, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1114 PM CDT WED JUL 8 2009

.AVIATION...06Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE
FLINT HILLS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...AND POSSIBLY
SOUTHEAST KANSAS TOWARD DAWN. EXPECT ADDITIONAL CONVECTION TO
STAY EAST OF THE KICT-KSLN TAF SITES...BUT WILL LIKELY AFFECT
THE KCNU TAF EITHER SIDE OF 12Z...SO OPTED FOR TEMPO GROUP THERE.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION ACROSS
THE REST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE FORECAST VALID PERIOD. GUSTY
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL AFTER DAWN AND LIKELY
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING ON THURSDAY.

KED

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 638 PM CDT WED JUL 8 2009/

AVIATION...00Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ACROSS PARTS OF
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS AFTER MIDNIGHT. EXPECT THAT
CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL KANSAS AND MOVE
SOUTHEASTWARD...AND WOULD MAINLY AFFECT KSLN AND KCNU. FOR NOW
WILL JUST MENTION SOME CB AT THESE TWO TAF SITES...AS CONFIDENCE
IS STORMS DEVELOPING IS FAIRLY HIGH BUT WHETHER OR NOT THEY WILL
AFFECT AIRPORTS SPECIFICALLY IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT.
OTHERWISE...GUSTY WINDS ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAY THURSDAY...AND
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

SCHRECK

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 324 PM CDT WED JUL 8 2009/

DISCUSSION...
FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS WILL BE SLIGHT THUNDERSTORM CHANCES OVER THE
NEXT 7 DAYS...ALONG WITH THE HEAT.

LONE STRONG/SEVERE SUPERCELL CURRENTLY MOVING SOUTH ALONG
INSTABILITY AXIS/MID-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS FAR EASTERN KS MAY
CLIP PORTIONS OF WOODSON AND ALLEN COUNTY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
HOURS. HOWEVER...THINKING THAT THIS ISOLATED ACTIVITY MAY TEND TO
EVENTUALLY WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO A MORE STABLE AIRMASS.
ADDITIONALLY...A STRAY ISOLATED STORM MAY DEVELOP ACROSS
NORTHERN/NORTHEAST KS...ALONG A REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. THIS
ACTIVITY COULD CLIP NORTHERN/NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE AREA LATE
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. THERE IS GREATER CONFIDENCE IN AN MCS
DEVELOPING AFTER MIDNIGHT...AS LOW-LEVEL JET VEERS...INCREASING LIFT
ALONG THE LOW-MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE CURRENTLY IN PLACE. THINKING
BEST CHANCES WILL BE EAST OF I-135...ALTHOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT
ISOLATED ACTIVITY WEST OF I-135. DESPITE ONLY MODEST
INSTABILITY...STRONG DIRECTIONAL DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND GOOD
STORM-RELATIVE INFLOW COULD PROMOTE A FEW SEVERE STORMS...CAPABLE OF
LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...ALTHOUGH NOT
ANTICIPATING A HIGH-END EVENT BY ANY MEANS. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD
PERSIST INTO THURSDAY MORNING OVER EAST-CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST KS.

A SUBTLY ACTIVE PATTERN EXPECTED THE NEXT 5-7 DAYS. THE BUILDING
MID/UPPER RIDGE CENTER IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS/SOUTHERN ROCKIES...KEEPING THE FORECAST AREA IN A
WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT REGIME. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR VARIOUS WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARIES TO WOBBLE IN THE VICINITY OF THE FORECAST
AREA...AS SUBTLE MID/UPPER DISTURBANCES RACE EAST/SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SLIGHT CHANCES OF
THUNDERSTORMS JUST ABOUT EACH DAY AND NIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA CLOSEST TO THE STRONGER
WEST/NORTHWESTERLIES. FOR THE MOST PART...AM NOT ANTICIPATING ANY
WIDESPREAD AND/OR HIGH-END SEVERE EVENTS...MAINLY DUE TO VERY WARM
MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND RELATIVELY WEAK FLOW ALOFT. HOWEVER...A
FEW MAINLY NOCTURNAL THROUGH MORNING STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
COMPLEXES CANNOT BE RULED OUT...ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.

HEAT WILL BE ANOTHER ISSUE. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
SUGGEST ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS...WITH
850MB TEMPERATURES APPROACHING AND EVEN EXCEEDING 30C. NORMAL HIGHS
THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE LOW 90S. PENDING MORNING CONVECTION HAMPERING
HIGHS...THINKING THURSDAY-FRIDAY HIGHS WILL REACH 90S-100S...WARMEST
ON FRIDAY. IN FACT...SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA COULD
VERY WELL EXCEED 105F ON FRIDAY...GIVEN THE EXPECTED AMOUNT OF
MIXING OCCURS. HEAT INDICES WILL BE MARGINAL FOR A HEAT ADVISORY DUE
TO DEWPOINTS MIXING OUT FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST...SO WILL HOLD
OFF ON ISSUING ANY HEADLINES AT THIS TIME. SATURDAY TEMPERATURES
WILL BE TRICKY AS A COLD FRONT OOZES SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. LATEST
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO TREND FARTHER SOUTH WITH THIS FRONT...SO THE
EXTREME TEMPERATURES MAY BE CONFINED TO FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

KLEINSASSER

AVIATION...18Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
COMPLEX OF CONVECTION QUICKLY MOVED SOUTH OF THE AREA INTO OK EARLY
TODAY...WITH JUST LINGERING MID CLOUDS ACROSS THE KICT AND KHUT TAF
SITES. FOR THE REST OF THE DAY EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FOR ALL THE TAF
SITES AS CAPPING INVERSION ALOFT KEEPS PRECIP CHANCES NIL.

CONCERN THEN SHIFTS TO ANOTHER ROUND OF NOCTURNAL CONVECTION
EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KS LATE TONIGHT.
MID LEVEL LIFT AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY LOOKS TO INCREASE ACROSS
THIS AREA BETWEEN 06-09Z/THU WITH A COUPLE AREAS OF CONVECTION
POSSIBLE TO THE EAST OF INTERSTATE 135 AFTER 09Z/THU. THIS WILL
POSSIBLY AFFECT THE KSLN AND EVENTUALLY THE KCNU TAF SITES AS THIS
AREA OF STORMS AGAIN SLIDES TO THE SOUTH DURING THE 09-15Z/THU TIME
FRAME.  SO HAVE INSERTED A VCTS FOR THIS CHANCE.  NOT TOO CONFIDENT
ENOUGH IN PLACEMENT OF THE CONVECTION TO GO WITH A TEMPO GROUP JUST
YET.

ALSO NOT CONFIDENT IN KICT AND KHUT STAYING DRY AS WELL...EARLY ON
THU...BUT WILL KEEP MENTION OF TSRA OUT OF THESE SITES AND WAIT TILL
LATER TAF ISSUANCES TO INSERT IF NEEDED.

KETCHAM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    74 101  76 103 /  30  10  10  10
HUTCHINSON      74 101  75 102 /  30  10  10  20
NEWTON          73  99  76 102 /  30  10  10  20
ELDORADO        73  98  76 102 /  30  10  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   74 101  76 103 /  30  10  10  10
RUSSELL         74 101  74  99 /  10  10  20  20
GREAT BEND      74 102  74 100 /  10  10  20  20
SALINA          74  99  75  99 /  30  10  20  20
MCPHERSON       74 100  75 101 /  30  10  20  20
COFFEYVILLE     73  96  75 101 /  30  30  10  10
CHANUTE         72  96  75  99 /  30  30  10  10
IOLA            71  95  75  98 /  30  30  20  10
PARSONS-KPPF    72  96  75 100 /  30  30  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1134 PM CDT WED JUL 08 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1112 PM     HAIL             GALVA                   38.38N 97.54W
07/08/2009  E1.00 INCH       MCPHERSON          KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

SCHRECK