Severe Thunderstorm Warning 212, NWS Wichita, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1021 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2009

.UPDATE...
CLEARED TOR #426 FROM ALL OF CNTRL KS AS WELL AS THAT PART OF SC KS
GENERALLY ALONG...& W...OF THE KS TURNPIKE. SIGNIFICANT CHANGES
HAVE BEEN MADE TO POPS/WX/QPF TO REFLECT THE WATCH CANCELLATION AS
WELL MOST RECENT RADAR TRENDS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 935 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2009/

MESOSCALE UPDATE...
LINE OF SVR TSTRMS CONTINUES SURGING E40MPH ACROSS SC KS LATE THIS
EVENING. MOST INTENSE CELLS...CAPABLE OF 70-80MPH WINDS...GOLFBALL-
SIZED HAIL & TORRENTIAL RAINS HAD JUST CROSSED THE KS TURNPIKE FROM
ANDOVER TO NEAR BELLE PLAINE 925PM CDT. MUCH OF SE KS (ESPECIALLY
AREAS GENERALLY ALONG & N OF A LINE FROM MOLINE (SW ELK COUNTY) TO
NEODESHA) SHOULD BE READY FOR PRIMARILY DAMAGING 70-80MPH WINDS AND
TORRENTIAL RAINS THRU THE MID-NIGHT HOUR.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 843 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2009/

MESOSCALE UPDATE...
SVR TSTRMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GOLFBALL-SIZED HAIL AND DAMAGING
70-80MPH WINDS CONTINUE TO SURGE E THROUGH THE HEART OF KICT
COUNTRY THIS EVENING. AT 835 PM CDT...SVR TSTRMS WERE CROSSING
I-135 WITH THE MOST INTENSE CELLS CROSSING THE KS TURNPIKE BETWEEN
KICT & THE OK BORDER. ANOTHER SVR TSTRM IS MOVG E35MPH ALONG THE
KINGMAN/HARPER COUNTY LINE & SHOULD CROSS THE KS TURNPIKE BETWEEN
900PM & 915 PM CDT. DAMAGING 2-INCH DIAMETER HAIL IS LIKELY WITH
THIS LATTER CELL. POPS/WX/QPF GRIDS HAVE BEEN UPPATED TO REFLECT
THE MOST RECENT TRENDS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 704 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2009/

AVIATION...00Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS TAF ISSUANCE IS THE TIMING OF WHEN THE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA. LATEST RADAR LOOP WAS
SHOWING NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL AND SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS. THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST AND
AFFECT THE MAJORITY OF THE TAF SITES THIS EVENING. THIS COMPLEX
MAY STILL ORGANIZE INTO AN MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM AS THE
EVENING PROGRESSES AND INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR WIND DAMAGE.
AFTER THIS COMPLEX OF STORMS MOVES THROUGH WE ARE LOOKING AT
CLEARING SKIES WITH SOME SCATTERED 1500FT STRATUS POSSIBLE TOWARDS
DAYBREAK.

COX

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 316 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2009/

DISCUSSION...

THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WILL BE THE SEVERE STORM
POTENTIAL THIS EVENING...THEN AGAIN ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

TONIGHT:
LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY WAS SHOWING A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER WESTERN OKLAHOMA. THIS ACTIVITY LOOKS
TO BE RATHER CAPPED AND ELEVATED AT THIS TIME...AND MAY REMAIN THAT
WAY THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...LOOKING AT THE LATEST
LAPS ANALYSIS IT APPEARS LIKE THE MIXED LAYER CONVECTIVE INHIBITION
IS LESS ACROSS AREAS EAST OF THE TURNPIKE. IF THIS CLUSTER CAN HOLD
TOGETHER...THEN IT MAY BE ABLE TO BECOME SEVERE ONCE IT MOVES INTO
AREAS OF THE TURNPIKE. ALTHOUGH...WE ARE NOT REAL CONFIDENT IN THIS
OCCURRING.  THE MAIN FOCUS APPEARS TO BE IN SOUTHWEST KANSAS
STRETCHING INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE WHERE QUITE A BIT OF CUMULUS
DEVELOPMENT IS TAKING PLACE IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
POTENTIAL VORTICITY ANOMALY. THIS POTENTIAL VORTICITY ANOMALY SHOULD
STIR UP QUITE A BIT CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON IN WESTERN KANSAS AND
THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON. PUTTING ALL OF THIS TOGETHER
IT APPEARS LIKE WE COULD SEE A FEW ISOLATED STORMS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...EARLY THIS EVENING. IF THESE STORMS DEVELOP...THEY WILL
MOST LIKELY BE SUPERCELLULAR WITH EVEN AN ISOLATED TORNADO
THREAT...ESPECIALLY IF THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BACKS AHEAD OF THE CELLS.
LATER TONIGHT IS A TOUGH CALL ON THE TRACK OF THE MESOSCALE
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM (MCS). AT THIS POINT...WE DO NOT FEEL COMFORTABLE
ENOUGH TO FOCUS ON ANY PARTICULAR AREA. ALTHOUGH...THE BEST CHANCE
FOR A LONG LIVED MCS APPEARS TO BE IN CENTRAL KANSAS ON THE SOUTHERN
EDGE OF WESTERLIES. SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS ON THE OTHER
HAND IS NOT OUT OF THE WOODS ESPECIALLY WITH SUCH HIGH INSTABILITY
IN PLACE...GOOD 850MB STORM RELATIVE FLOW. A STRONG COLD POOL COULD
ALSO DEVELOP WHICH MAY CAUSE A PROLONGED WIND EVENT. WE ALSO WENT
AHEAD AND ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE ENTIRE AREA
TONIGHT...DUE TO HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN PLACE.

TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT:
THE BULK OF THE CONVECTION SHOULD MOVE OUT OF THE PICTURE MAINLY
BEFORE DAYBREAK ON TUESDAY...BUT THERE MAY BE A FEW LINGERING
SHOWERS AND STORMS IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS. THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA
WILL SEE A FAIRLY NICE DAY WITH COOLER CONDITIONS. THERE IS A SMALL
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AS SOME
ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPS ALONG A BAROCLINIC ZONE BETWEEN 310-315K.
HOWEVER... THERE IS NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. WITH
SOME INSTABILITY IN PLACE...WE PLAN ON KEEPING SMALL CHANCES OF
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

WEDNESDAY-MONDAY:
THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM APPEARS TO MOVE OUT OF THE ROCKIES THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING. THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL PUSH THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA. AS A RESULT...MORE STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. BEYOND THIS
PERIOD...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER THE AREA
AND BRING BACK HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND.

COX

AVIATION...18Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
A STATIONARY BOUNDARY SPANS MUCH OF THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THIS AREA WILL BE THE FOCUS OF A DECENT CUMULUS
FIELD. ELSEWHERE...WARM TEMPERATURES AND AN APPROACHING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PROVIDE THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL
KANSAS. THESE STORMS COULD BE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND POSSIBLY
A TORNADO. LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...THE SURFACE LOW
CURRENTLY IN SW KANSAS WILL MOVE EASTWARD A KICK OFF ANOTHER ROUND
OF NOCTURNAL STORMS. ONCE AGAIN...LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY CULPRIT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    67  92  69  98 /  90  10  20  10
HUTCHINSON      65  91  68  98 /  80  10  20  10
NEWTON          66  91  68  95 /  90  20  20  20
ELDORADO        66  91  69  95 /  90  20  20  20
WINFIELD-KWLD   69  92  70  98 /  90  10  20  10
RUSSELL         64  88  66  98 /  80  10  20  10
GREAT BEND      64  89  67  99 /  80  10  20  10
SALINA          65  89  67  97 /  80  10  20  20
MCPHERSON       65  90  68  97 /  90  10  20  10
COFFEYVILLE     70  90  70  97 /  90  20  20  20
CHANUTE         68  89  69  94 /  90  20  20  20
IOLA            66  89  69  93 /  90  20  20  20
PARSONS-KPPF    69  90  70  95 /  90  20  20  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR KSZ032-033-047>053-
067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.

&&

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1020 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2009

KSZ052-068-069-160400-
BUTLER-HARVEY-MARION-
1020 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2009

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WICHITA HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ALERT FOR BUTLER...HARVEY AND MARION COUNTIES...

AT 1019 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE
TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR SEDGWICK...OR 7 MILES SOUTHWEST
OF NEWTON...AND MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

PENNY TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL IS EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

BE PREPARED TO TAKE SHELTER IN THE EVENT THESE STORMS INTENSIFY AND
BECOME SEVERE, OR A WARNING IS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

CARUSO

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1028 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1024 PM     TSTM WND GST     EUREKA AIRPORT          37.85N 96.29W
06/15/2009  M55.00 MPH       GREENWOOD          KS   AWOS

&&

HOWERTON

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