River Flood Warning 76, NWS Wichita, KS

000 
WGUS83 KICT 160824
FLSICT
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS 
324 AM CDT TUE JUN 16 2009

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVER IN KANSAS...

  COTTONWOOD RIVER NEAR FLORENCE AFFECTING MARION COUNTY.

  COTTONWOOD RIVER AT COTTONWOOD FALLS AFFECTING CHASE COUNTY.

  COTTONWOOD RIVER NEAR PLYMOUTH AFFECTING CHASE AND LYON COUNTIES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE...DO NOT DRIVE INTO FLOODED AREAS OR GO AROUND 
BARRICADES. NEARLY HALF OF ALL FLOOD FATALITIES ARE VEHICLE RELATED.

&&

KSC115-162024-
/O.CON.KICT.FL.W.0075.090616T2240Z-090617T1525Z/
/FLRK1.1.ER.090616T2240Z.090617T0000Z.090617T0325Z.NO/
324 AM CDT TUE JUN 16 2009

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE COTTONWOOD RIVER NEAR FLORENCE.
* FROM THIS AFTERNOON TO WEDNESDAY MORNING...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS 
  CANCELLED.
* AT  3:00 AM TUESDAY THE STAGE WAS 5.5 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 22.0 FEET. 
* FORECAST...FLOOD STAGE WILL BE REACHED BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE 
  RIVER WILL CREST NEAR 22.4 FEET BY THIS EVENING. THE RIVER WILL 
  FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY TONIGHT.
* IMPACT...AT 22.0 FEET...MINOR FLOODING OF THE LEFT BANK AND ROADS 
  ALONG THE NORTH BANK WILL BEGIN.

&&


                  FLD    OBSERVED           FORECAST 7 AM
LOCATION          STG    STG  DAY TIME    WED    THU    FRI
  FLORENCE        22.0   5.5 TUE 03 AM   17.9    4.0    3.7

$$

KSC017-162023-
/O.CON.KICT.FL.W.0076.090617T0600Z-090618T1000Z/
/CTWK1.1.ER.090617T0600Z.090617T1200Z.090617T1600Z.NO/
324 AM CDT TUE JUN 16 2009

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE COTTONWOOD RIVER AT COTTONWOOD FALLS.
* FROM LATE TONIGHT TO LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS
  CANCELLED.
* THERE IS NO CURRENT OBSERVED DATA.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 9.0 FEET. 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER IS FORECAST TO HAVE A MAXIMUM VALUE OF 9.6 FEET
  WEDNESDAY MORNING.
* IMPACT...AT 10.0 FEET...WATER COVERS FIELDS AND SOME RURAL ROADS 
  ALONG THE RIVER. LOW AREAS ALONG THE SOUTH BANK AT THE GAGE SITE 
  BEGIN TO FLOOD.

&&


                  FLD    OBSERVED           FORECAST 7 AM
LOCATION          STG    STG  DAY TIME    WED    THU    FRI
  COTTONWOOD FAL  9.0       MSG          9.6    6.2    4.2

$$

KSC017-111-162023-
/O.CON.KICT.FL.W.0077.090616T2040Z-090618T1443Z/
/PLYK1.1.ER.090616T2040Z.090617T0600Z.090618T0243Z.NO/
324 AM CDT TUE JUN 16 2009

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE COTTONWOOD RIVER NEAR PLYMOUTH.
* FROM THIS AFTERNOON TO THURSDAY MORNING...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS 
  CANCELLED.
* AT  3:00 AM TUESDAY THE STAGE WAS 22.1 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 32.0 FEET. 
* FORECAST...FLOOD STAGE WILL BE REACHED BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE 
  RIVER WILL CREST NEAR 33.6 FEET BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE 
  RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING.
* IMPACT...AT 34.0 FEET...ROAD A BECOMES COMPLETELY INUNDATED NEAR THE
  RIVER GAGE SITE...SOUTH OF HWY 50.

&&


                  FLD    OBSERVED           FORECAST 7 AM
LOCATION          STG    STG  DAY TIME    WED    THU    FRI
  PLYMOUTH        32.0  22.1 TUE 03 AM   33.0   29.5   23.2

$$

000 
WGUS83 KICT 161024
FLSICT
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS 
524 AM CDT TUE JUN 16 2009

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVER IN KANSAS...
 
  COTTONWOOD RIVER NEAR PLYMOUTH AFFECTING CHASE AND LYON COUNTIES.

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVER IN KANSAS...

  COTTONWOOD RIVER NEAR FLORENCE AFFECTING MARION COUNTY.

  COTTONWOOD RIVER AT COTTONWOOD FALLS AFFECTING CHASE COUNTY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE...DO NOT DRIVE INTO FLOODED AREAS OR GO AROUND 
BARRICADES. NEARLY HALF OF ALL FLOOD FATALITIES ARE VEHICLE RELATED.

&&

KSC115-162224-
/O.CON.KICT.FL.W.0075.090616T2240Z-090617T1525Z/
/FLRK1.1.ER.090616T2240Z.090617T0000Z.090617T0325Z.NO/
524 AM CDT TUE JUN 16 2009

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE COTTONWOOD RIVER NEAR FLORENCE.
* FROM THIS AFTERNOON TO WEDNESDAY MORNING...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS 
  CANCELLED.
* AT  5:00 AM TUESDAY THE STAGE WAS 5.7 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 22.0 FEET. 
* FORECAST...FLOOD STAGE WILL BE REACHED BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE 
  RIVER WILL CREST NEAR 22.4 FEET BY THIS EVENING. THE RIVER WILL 
  FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY TONIGHT.
* IMPACT...AT 22.0 FEET...MINOR FLOODING OF THE LEFT BANK AND ROADS 
  ALONG THE NORTH BANK WILL BEGIN.

&&


                  FLD    OBSERVED           FORECAST 7 AM
LOCATION          STG    STG  DAY TIME    WED    THU    FRI
  FLORENCE        22.0   5.7 TUE 05 AM   17.9    4.0    3.7

$$

KSC017-162223-
/O.CON.KICT.FL.W.0076.090617T0600Z-090618T1000Z/
/CTWK1.1.ER.090617T0600Z.090617T1200Z.090617T1600Z.NO/
524 AM CDT TUE JUN 16 2009

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE COTTONWOOD RIVER AT COTTONWOOD FALLS.
* FROM LATE TONIGHT TO LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS
  CANCELLED.
* THERE IS NO CURRENT OBSERVED DATA.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 9.0 FEET. 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER IS FORECAST TO HAVE A MAXIMUM VALUE OF 9.6 FEET
  WEDNESDAY MORNING.
* IMPACT...AT 10.0 FEET...WATER COVERS FIELDS AND SOME RURAL ROADS 
  ALONG THE RIVER. LOW AREAS ALONG THE SOUTH BANK AT THE GAGE SITE 
  BEGIN TO FLOOD.

&&


                  FLD    OBSERVED           FORECAST 7 AM
LOCATION          STG    STG  DAY TIME    WED    THU    FRI
  COTTONWOOD FAL  9.0       MSG          9.6    6.2    4.2

$$

KSC017-111-162223-
/O.EXT.KICT.FL.W.0077.090616T1720Z-090618T1443Z/
/PLYK1.1.ER.090616T1720Z.090617T0000Z.090618T0243Z.NO/
524 AM CDT TUE JUN 16 2009

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE COTTONWOOD RIVER NEAR PLYMOUTH.
* FROM THIS AFTERNOON TO THURSDAY MORNING...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS 
  CANCELLED.
* AT  5:00 AM TUESDAY THE STAGE WAS 27.5 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 32.0 FEET. 
* FORECAST...FLOOD STAGE WILL BE REACHED BY THIS AFTERNOON. THE RIVER
  WILL CREST NEAR 33.6 FEET BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE RIVER 
  WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING.
* IMPACT...AT 34.0 FEET...ROAD A BECOMES COMPLETELY INUNDATED NEAR THE
  RIVER GAGE SITE...SOUTH OF HWY 50.

&&


                  FLD    OBSERVED           FORECAST 7 AM
LOCATION          STG    STG  DAY TIME    WED    THU    FRI
  PLYMOUTH        32.0  27.5 TUE 05 AM   33.0   29.5   23.2

$$

KRC

000 
WGUS83 KICT 161322
FLSICT
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS 
822 AM CDT TUE JUN 16 2009

...THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVER IN 
KANSAS...
 
  COTTONWOOD RIVER NEAR FLORENCE AFFECTING MARION COUNTY.
 
...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVER IN KANSAS...
 
  COTTONWOOD RIVER AT COTTONWOOD FALLS AFFECTING CHASE COUNTY.
  COTTONWOOD RIVER NEAR PLYMOUTH AFFECTING CHASE AND LYON COUNTIES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE...DO NOT DRIVE INTO FLOODED AREAS OR GO AROUND 
BARRICADES. NEARLY HALF OF ALL FLOOD FATALITIES ARE VEHICLE RELATED.

&&

KSC115-161352-
/O.CAN.KICT.FL.W.0075.000000T0000Z-090617T1525Z/
/FLRK1.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
822 AM CDT TUE JUN 16 2009

THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR
  THE COTTONWOOD RIVER NEAR FLORENCE.
* AT 8:00 AM TUESDAY THE STAGE WAS 7.5 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 22.0 FEET.
* THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST FOR THIS POINT FOR THIS EVENT. 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CREST BELOW FLOOD STAGE AT 17.7 FEET THIS
  EVENING.


&&


                  FLD    OBSERVED           FORECAST 7 AM
LOCATION          STG    STG  DAY TIME    WED    THU    FRI
  FLORENCE        22.0   7.5 TUE 08 AM   13.8    4.0    3.7

$$

KSC017-170122-
/O.EXT.KICT.FL.W.0076.090616T2043Z-090618T0105Z/
/CTWK1.1.ER.090616T2043Z.090617T0000Z.090617T0705Z.NO/
822 AM CDT TUE JUN 16 2009

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE COTTONWOOD RIVER AT COTTONWOOD FALLS.
* FROM THIS AFTERNOON TO WEDNESDAY EVENING...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS 
  CANCELLED.
* AT 6:30 AM TUESDAY THE STAGE WAS 7.3 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 9.0 FEET. 
* FORECAST...FLOOD STAGE WILL BE REACHED BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE 
  RIVER WILL CREST NEAR 9.6 FEET BY THIS EVENING. 
* IMPACT...AT 10.0 FEET...WATER COVERS FIELDS AND SOME RURAL ROADS 
  ALONG THE RIVER. LOW AREAS ALONG THE SOUTH BANK AT THE GAGE SITE 
  BEGIN TO FLOOD.

&&


                  FLD    OBSERVED           FORECAST 7 AM
LOCATION          STG    STG  DAY TIME    WED    THU    FRI
  COTTONWOOD FAL  9.0   7.3 TUE 06 AM    8.1    5.2    3.5

$$

KSC017-111-170122-
/O.EXT.KICT.FL.W.0077.090616T1920Z-090617T2230Z/
/PLYK1.1.ER.090616T1920Z.090617T0000Z.090617T1030Z.NO/
822 AM CDT TUE JUN 16 2009

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE COTTONWOOD RIVER NEAR PLYMOUTH.
* FROM THIS AFTERNOON TO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...OR UNTIL THE WARNING 
  IS CANCELLED.
* AT 8:00 AM TUESDAY THE STAGE WAS 31.7 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 32.0 FEET. 
* FORECAST...FLOOD STAGE WILL BE REACHED BY THIS AFTERNOON. THE RIVER
  WILL CREST NEAR 32.7 FEET BY THIS EVENING. 
* IMPACT...AT 32.0 FEET...MINOR FLOODING CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG BOTH 
  BANKS. A ROAD NEAR THE GAGE SITE BECOMES FLOODED ESPECIALLY SOUTH 
  OF THE RIVER.

&&


                  FLD    OBSERVED           FORECAST 7 AM
LOCATION          STG    STG  DAY TIME    WED    THU    FRI
  PLYMOUTH        32.0  31.7 TUE 08 AM   31.8   25.0   18.6

$$

DUNTEN

000 
WGUS83 KICT 162019
FLSICT
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS 
319 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2009

...THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVER IN 
KANSAS...
 
  COTTONWOOD RIVER AT COTTONWOOD FALLS AFFECTING CHASE COUNTY.
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE...DO NOT DRIVE INTO FLOODED AREAS OR GO AROUND 
BARRICADES. NEARLY HALF OF ALL FLOOD FATALITIES ARE VEHICLE RELATED.

&&

KSC017-162049-
/O.CAN.KICT.FL.W.0076.000000T0000Z-090618T0105Z/
/CTWK1.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
319 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2009

THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR
  THE COTTONWOOD RIVER AT COTTONWOOD FALLS.
* AT  1:00 PM TUESDAY THE STAGE WAS 7.5 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 9.0 FEET. 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CREST BELOW FLOOD STAGE AT 8.0 FEET EARLY
  WEDNESDAY MORNING.
* IMPACT...AT 9.0 FEET...FLOODING OF LOW-LYING AREAS AND CROP LAND CAN
  BE EXPECTED.

&&
                  FLD    OBSERVED           FORECAST 7 AM
LOCATION          STG    STG  DAY TIME    WED    THU    FRI
  COTTONWOOD FAL  9.0    7.5  TUE 1 PM    8.0    5.4    3.2

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1210 AM CDT TUE JUN 16 2009

.UPDATE...

ZONES HAVE BEEN UPDATED TO REFLECT THE ISSUANCE OF SVR#429 WHICH IS
IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF CNTRL...SC KS & SE KS TIL 5AM CDT.

&&

.AVIATION...06Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
STRONG-SEVERE TSRA TO NO DOUBT POSE GREATEST THREAT TO THE AVIATION
COMMUNITY THE REST OF THE NIGHT. THESE TSRA ARE CAPABLE OF GOLFBALL
SIZED HAIL...DAMAGING 52-60KT WINDS & +RA THAT LIKELY RESULTING IN
LOCALIZED VSBYS <=1SM. AFTER CONVECTION VACATES KS CONCERN SHIFTS
TOWARD POTENTIAL FOR 1,500-2,000FT CIGS...ESPECIALLY OVER CNTRL KS.
POSSESS SUFFICIENT CONFIDENCE TO ASSIGN BKN015 TO KRSL & KSLN &
MAY DO LIKEWISE AT KHUT...PRIMARILY FOR 16/09-16/14Z PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1021 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2009/

UPDATE...
CLEARED TOR #426 FROM ALL OF CNTRL KS AS WELL AS THAT PART OF SC KS
GENERALLY ALONG...& W...OF THE KS TURNPIKE. SIGNIFICANT CHANGES
HAVE BEEN MADE TO POPS/WX/QPF TO REFLECT THE WATCH CANCELLATION AS
WELL MOST RECENT RADAR TRENDS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 935 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2009/

MESOSCALE UPDATE...
LINE OF SVR TSTRMS CONTINUES SURGING E40MPH ACROSS SC KS LATE THIS
EVENING. MOST INTENSE CELLS...CAPABLE OF 70-80MPH WINDS...GOLFBALL-
SIZED HAIL & TORRENTIAL RAINS HAD JUST CROSSED THE KS TURNPIKE FROM
ANDOVER TO NEAR BELLE PLAINE 925PM CDT. MUCH OF SE KS (ESPECIALLY
AREAS GENERALLY ALONG & N OF A LINE FROM MOLINE (SW ELK COUNTY) TO
NEODESHA) SHOULD BE READY FOR PRIMARILY DAMAGING 70-80MPH WINDS AND
TORRENTIAL RAINS THRU THE MID-NIGHT HOUR.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 843 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2009/

MESOSCALE UPDATE...
SVR TSTRMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GOLFBALL-SIZED HAIL AND DAMAGING
70-80MPH WINDS CONTINUE TO SURGE E THROUGH THE HEART OF KICT
COUNTRY THIS EVENING. AT 835 PM CDT...SVR TSTRMS WERE CROSSING
I-135 WITH THE MOST INTENSE CELLS CROSSING THE KS TURNPIKE BETWEEN
KICT & THE OK BORDER. ANOTHER SVR TSTRM IS MOVG E35MPH ALONG THE
KINGMAN/HARPER COUNTY LINE & SHOULD CROSS THE KS TURNPIKE BETWEEN
900PM & 915 PM CDT. DAMAGING 2-INCH DIAMETER HAIL IS LIKELY WITH
THIS LATTER CELL. POPS/WX/QPF GRIDS HAVE BEEN UPPATED TO REFLECT
THE MOST RECENT TRENDS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 704 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2009/

AVIATION...00Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS TAF ISSUANCE IS THE TIMING OF WHEN THE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA. LATEST RADAR LOOP WAS
SHOWING NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL AND SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS. THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST AND
AFFECT THE MAJORITY OF THE TAF SITES THIS EVENING. THIS COMPLEX
MAY STILL ORGANIZE INTO AN MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM AS THE
EVENING PROGRESSES AND INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR WIND DAMAGE.
AFTER THIS COMPLEX OF STORMS MOVES THROUGH WE ARE LOOKING AT
CLEARING SKIES WITH SOME SCATTERED 1500FT STRATUS POSSIBLE TOWARDS
DAYBREAK.

COX

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 316 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2009/

DISCUSSION...

THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WILL BE THE SEVERE STORM
POTENTIAL THIS EVENING...THEN AGAIN ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

TONIGHT:
LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY WAS SHOWING A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER WESTERN OKLAHOMA. THIS ACTIVITY LOOKS
TO BE RATHER CAPPED AND ELEVATED AT THIS TIME...AND MAY REMAIN THAT
WAY THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...LOOKING AT THE LATEST
LAPS ANALYSIS IT APPEARS LIKE THE MIXED LAYER CONVECTIVE INHIBITION
IS LESS ACROSS AREAS EAST OF THE TURNPIKE. IF THIS CLUSTER CAN HOLD
TOGETHER...THEN IT MAY BE ABLE TO BECOME SEVERE ONCE IT MOVES INTO
AREAS OF THE TURNPIKE. ALTHOUGH...WE ARE NOT REAL CONFIDENT IN THIS
OCCURRING.  THE MAIN FOCUS APPEARS TO BE IN SOUTHWEST KANSAS
STRETCHING INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE WHERE QUITE A BIT OF CUMULUS
DEVELOPMENT IS TAKING PLACE IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
POTENTIAL VORTICITY ANOMALY. THIS POTENTIAL VORTICITY ANOMALY SHOULD
STIR UP QUITE A BIT CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON IN WESTERN KANSAS AND
THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON. PUTTING ALL OF THIS TOGETHER
IT APPEARS LIKE WE COULD SEE A FEW ISOLATED STORMS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...EARLY THIS EVENING. IF THESE STORMS DEVELOP...THEY WILL
MOST LIKELY BE SUPERCELLULAR WITH EVEN AN ISOLATED TORNADO
THREAT...ESPECIALLY IF THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BACKS AHEAD OF THE CELLS.
LATER TONIGHT IS A TOUGH CALL ON THE TRACK OF THE MESOSCALE
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM (MCS). AT THIS POINT...WE DO NOT FEEL COMFORTABLE
ENOUGH TO FOCUS ON ANY PARTICULAR AREA. ALTHOUGH...THE BEST CHANCE
FOR A LONG LIVED MCS APPEARS TO BE IN CENTRAL KANSAS ON THE SOUTHERN
EDGE OF WESTERLIES. SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS ON THE OTHER
HAND IS NOT OUT OF THE WOODS ESPECIALLY WITH SUCH HIGH INSTABILITY
IN PLACE...GOOD 850MB STORM RELATIVE FLOW. A STRONG COLD POOL COULD
ALSO DEVELOP WHICH MAY CAUSE A PROLONGED WIND EVENT. WE ALSO WENT
AHEAD AND ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE ENTIRE AREA
TONIGHT...DUE TO HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN PLACE.

TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT:
THE BULK OF THE CONVECTION SHOULD MOVE OUT OF THE PICTURE MAINLY
BEFORE DAYBREAK ON TUESDAY...BUT THERE MAY BE A FEW LINGERING
SHOWERS AND STORMS IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS. THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA
WILL SEE A FAIRLY NICE DAY WITH COOLER CONDITIONS. THERE IS A SMALL
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AS SOME
ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPS ALONG A BAROCLINIC ZONE BETWEEN 310-315K.
HOWEVER... THERE IS NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. WITH
SOME INSTABILITY IN PLACE...WE PLAN ON KEEPING SMALL CHANCES OF
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

WEDNESDAY-MONDAY:
THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM APPEARS TO MOVE OUT OF THE ROCKIES THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING. THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL PUSH THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA. AS A RESULT...MORE STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. BEYOND THIS
PERIOD...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER THE AREA
AND BRING BACK HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND.

COX

AVIATION...18Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
A STATIONARY BOUNDARY SPANS MUCH OF THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THIS AREA WILL BE THE FOCUS OF A DECENT CUMULUS
FIELD. ELSEWHERE...WARM TEMPERATURES AND AN APPROACHING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PROVIDE THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL
KANSAS. THESE STORMS COULD BE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND POSSIBLY
A TORNADO. LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...THE SURFACE LOW
CURRENTLY IN SW KANSAS WILL MOVE EASTWARD A KICK OFF ANOTHER ROUND
OF NOCTURNAL STORMS. ONCE AGAIN...LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY CULPRIT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    67  92  69  98 /  90  10  20  10
HUTCHINSON      65  91  68  98 /  80  10  20  10
NEWTON          66  91  68  95 /  90  20  20  20
ELDORADO        66  91  69  95 /  90  20  20  20
WINFIELD-KWLD   69  92  70  98 /  90  10  20  10
RUSSELL         64  88  66  98 /  80  10  20  10
GREAT BEND      64  89  67  99 /  80  10  20  10
SALINA          65  89  67  97 /  80  10  20  20
MCPHERSON       65  90  68  97 /  90  10  20  10
COFFEYVILLE     70  90  70  97 /  90  20  20  20
CHANUTE         68  89  69  94 /  90  20  20  20
IOLA            66  89  69  93 /  90  20  20  20
PARSONS-KPPF    69  90  70  95 /  90  20  20  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR KSZ032-033-047>053-
067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1204 AM CDT TUE JUN 16 2009

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-170515-
RUSSELL-LINCOLN-BARTON-ELLSWORTH-SALINE-RICE-MCPHERSON-MARION-CHASE-
RENO-HARVEY-BUTLER-GREENWOOD-WOODSON-ALLEN-KINGMAN-SEDGWICK-HARPER-
SUMNER-COWLEY-ELK-WILSON-NEOSHO-CHAUTAUQUA-MONTGOMERY-LABETTE-
1204 AM CDT TUE JUN 16 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS...
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL...SOUTH CENTRAL...AND
SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE HAIL UP TO GOLFBALL
SIZE AND A FEW WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY
LEAD TO FLOODING PROBLEMS WHERE STORMS ARE ABLE TO MOVE REPEATEDLY
OVER THE SAME AREAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT. THE MAIN THREAT FROM THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DIME SIZED
HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS UP TO 50 MPH.

THE CHANCES ARE INCREASING THAT STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
RETURN TO KANSAS THURSDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT SURGES SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE STATE. THEREFORE...ONE SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS
FOR FURTHER UPDATES.

HOT & VERY HUMID WEATHER WILL PESTER THE REGION THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK...ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WHEN AFTERNOON HEAT
INDICES ARE LIKELY TO REACH 100 TO 105.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

A FEW STORM SPOTTERS MAY BE NEEDED OVERNIGHT.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION...SEE OUR
WEBPAGE AT (LOWERCASE) HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/WICHITA/HWO/HWO.PHP

JMC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1227 AM CDT TUE JUN 16 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1224 AM     HAIL             BUHLER                  38.14N 97.77W
06/16/2009  E0.75 INCH       RENO               KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

CDJ

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1235 AM CDT TUE JUN 16 2009

KSZ070-160615-
GREENWOOD-
1235 AM CDT TUE JUN 16 2009

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WICHITA HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ALERT FOR GREENWOOD COUNTY...

AT 1235 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE
TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 12 MILES SOUTHEAST OF MATFIELD
GREEN...OR 17 MILES NORTH OF EUREKA...AND MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

PENNY TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH
THIS STORM.

BILLINGS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1250 AM CDT TUE JUN 16 2009

KSZ072-160615-
ALLEN-
1250 AM CDT TUE JUN 16 2009

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WICHITA HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ALERT FOR ALLEN COUNTY...

AT 1250 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE
TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 6 MILES NORTHEAST OF LA HARPE...OR 10
MILES NORTHEAST OF IOLA...AND MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

BE PREPARED TO TAKE SHELTER IN THE EVENT THESE STORMS INTENSIFY AND
BECOME SEVERE, OR A WARNING IS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

BILLINGS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1258 AM CDT TUE JUN 16 2009

KSZ047-050-051-160630-
BARTON-MCPHERSON-RICE-
1258 AM CDT TUE JUN 16 2009

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WICHITA HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ALERT FOR BARTON...MCPHERSON AND RICE COUNTIES...

AT 1257 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE
TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR CHASE...OR 26 MILES EAST OF GREAT
BEND...AND MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.

PENNY TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH
THIS STORM.

BE PREPARED TO TAKE SHELTER IN THE EVENT THESE STORMS INTENSIFY AND
BECOME SEVERE, OR A WARNING IS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

BILLINGS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
137 AM CDT TUE JUN 16 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0132 AM     FLOOD            MCPHERSON               38.37N 97.66W
06/16/2009                   MCPHERSON          KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            A SPOTTER REPORTED YARD AND STREET FLOODING IN MCPHERSON.

&&

JMC

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
210 AM CDT TUE JUN 16 2009

KSZ052-160745-
MARION-
210 AM CDT TUE JUN 16 2009

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WICHITA HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ALERT FOR MARION COUNTY...

AT 206 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
THUNDERSTORM WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL NEAR MARION...AND MOVING
EAST AT 30 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL IS EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

THESE STORMS MAY PRODUCE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS. LISTEN FOR
LATER STATEMENTS OR POSSIBLE FLOODING WARNINGS...SHOULD THE RISK FOR
MINOR LOW-LAND FLOODING BECOME MORE IMMINENT.

BILLINGS