Severe Thunderstorm Warning 102, NWS Wichita, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
324 AM CDT FRI MAY 8 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
EVOLVING LINE OF STRONG/SEVERE TSRA OVER WRN KS SPREADING SE TOWARD WRN
PERIPHERY OF KICT COUNTRY EARLY THIS MORNING ALONG SE-MOVING COLD FRONT.
AT 3 AM CDT THE EXPANDING LINE OF CONVECTION CURVED FROM NEAR KDDC TO
JUST N OF KHUT. THE EXPANDING LINE OF CONVECTION WILL GREATLY INTENSIFY
AS IT VENTURES TOWARD REGION OF GREATEST INSTABILITY RESIDING OVER SW KS
& NW OK WHERE MUCAPES OF 3,000-5,000 J/KG & ULTRA HIGH OCTANE SFC-850MB
MOISTURE EXISTS.

.DISCUSSION...
TODAY & TONIGHT:
NO DOUBT PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN IS SIGNIFICANT SEVERE CONVECTIVE TSRA
...ESPECIALLY EARLY THIS MORNING OVER SC KS WHERE CLOSER PROXIMITY TO
AFORE-MENTIONED INSTABILITY & WHERE BETTER ALIGNED TO STRENGTHENING LOW
LEVEL JET. THE LATTER FEATURE...WHICH HAD REACHED 60-70 KTS OVER WRN OK
PER VICI OK PROFILER...WILL CONTINUE TO INJECT ULTRA-HIGH OCTANE SFC TO
850MB FUEL NE OVER SC KS THROUGH DAYBREAK. AS SUCH MAGNITUDE OF
SEVERITY TO INCREASE CONSIDERABLY WITH BOTH VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS OF 70-80 MPH POSSIBLE. AS PARENT MID-UPR SHORTWAVE SPRINTS E
ACROSS NEBRASKA/SD...THE COLD FRONT WILL SURGE SE ACROSS SE KS WHERE
FLASH FLOODING BECOMES AN INCREASING CONCERN IN ADDITION TO DAMAGING
WINDS AS MCS EVOLVES. PRECIPITABLE WATERS SOME 150-200% OF NORMAL ARE
PROGGED OVER SE KS THIS MORNING & AS SUCH WILL KEEP FLASH FLOOD WATCH
IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF SE KS TIL 12N. AS THE AFORE-MENTIONED MID-LEVEL
SHORT WAVE SPRINTS E ACROSS MID-UPR MS VALLEY...THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE
FORCED SUFFICIENTLY S/SE ACROSS OK TO ALLOW TSRA TO END IN NW-SE MANNER
OVER SC & SE KS EARLY THIS EVENING.

THIS WEEKEND:
GENERALLY UNSEASONABLY COOL WEATHER SLATED FOR ALL AREAS AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE SPREADS SE ACROSS KS. A FEW SHRA/ISOLATED TSRA MAY REDEVELOP
OVER NW KS AS ISENTROPIC ASCENT INCREASES & DEEPENS IN RESPONSE TO
NEXT BUT FAIRLY BROAD MID-LEVEL TROF VENTURES SE OVER CO. THESE SHRA
WILL SPREAD E ACROSS PRIMARILY CENTRAL KS LATE SAT NIGHT & EARLY SUN.

.AVIATION...06Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION WILL ALSO DEVELOP BETWEEN 06Z-09Z
ACROSS WEST CENTRAL INTO PARTS OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS. SCATTERED SUPERCELL STORMS ARE INITIALLY EXPECTED WITH
VERY LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. THE
CONVECTION IS THEN EXPECTED TO EXPAND INTO A LARGER MESOSCALE
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX TOWARD 12Z...AS IT MOVES FROM SOUTH CENTRAL
INTO PARTS OF SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. PERIODS OF
IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. WILL
CONTINUE TO SHOW A TEMPO GROUP WITH HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS AT
KICT/KHUT AND KCNU WHEN WE BELIEVE THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF THE
CONVECTION WILL AFFECT THE AREA. RELATIVELY SMALLER CHANCES FOR
STORMS ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS...HOWEVER WILL SHOW A BRIEF TEMPO
PERIOD AS WELL. A GENERAL IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IS EXPECTED ACROSS
MOST AREAS EXCEPT SOUTHEAST KANSAS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WITH VFR
ALL AREAS BY FRIDAY EVENING.

KED

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    75  53  70  49 /  70  20   0  20
HUTCHINSON      74  51  69  49 /  70  10   0  20
NEWTON          74  52  70  49 /  70  20   0  20
ELDORADO        75  53  70  49 /  70  20   0  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   76  54  70  49 /  70  30  10  10
RUSSELL         73  48  69  48 /  60   0   0  20
GREAT BEND      74  49  69  49 /  60  10   0  20
SALINA          73  50  69  48 /  70   0   0  20
MCPHERSON       74  51  69  49 /  70  10   0  20
COFFEYVILLE     76  55  70  48 /  80  40  10  10
CHANUTE         74  54  70  48 /  80  30  10  10
IOLA            74  54  69  48 /  80  30   0  10
PARSONS-KPPF    75  55  70  48 /  80  40  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON CDT TODAY FOR KSZ093>096-098>100.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
931 PM CDT THU MAY 7 2009

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-090245-
RUSSELL-LINCOLN-BARTON-ELLSWORTH-SALINE-RICE-MCPHERSON-MARION-CHASE-
RENO-HARVEY-BUTLER-GREENWOOD-WOODSON-ALLEN-KINGMAN-SEDGWICK-HARPER-
SUMNER-COWLEY-ELK-WILSON-NEOSHO-CHAUTAUQUA-MONTGOMERY-LABETTE-
931 PM CDT THU MAY 7 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS...
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER
MIDNIGHT ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING VERY LARGE HAIL UP TO BASEBALL SIZE AND POSSIBLY
DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS. THE STORMS WILL MOVE EASTWARD INTO
SOUTHEAST KANSAS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS FRIDAY WHILE
MERGING INTO A COMPLEX OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE MAIN THREATS
FROM THIS STORM COMPLEX WILL BE LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS...AND LOCALLY VERY HEAVY RAINFALL. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN
EFFECT FOR EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE ONGOING FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS...AND ARE
EXPECTED TO PUSH EAST AS THE NOON HOUR APPROACHES. LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE MAIN
THREATS.

THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR STORMS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA AND THEN AGAIN ON
WEDNESDAY. THESE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE STRONG OR SEVERE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATE TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING...ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
KANSAS.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION...SEE OUR
WEBPAGE AT (LOWERCASE) HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/WICHITA/HWO/HWO.PHP

KED/JMC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
330 AM CDT FRI MAY 08 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0320 AM     HAIL             ELLINWOOD               38.36N 98.58W
05/08/2009  E0.75 INCH       BARTON             KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

LFW

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
335 AM CDT FRI MAY 8 2009

KSZ067-080900-
RENO-
335 AM CDT FRI MAY 8 2009

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WICHITA HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ALERT FOR RENO COUNTY...

AT 333 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 5 MILES NORTH OF
SYLVIA TO 5 MILES NORTHWEST OF PRETTY PRAIRIE...AND MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 45 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

BE PREPARED TO TAKE SHELTER IN THE EVENT THESE STORMS INTENSIFY AND
BECOME SEVERE, OR A WARNING IS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE. THESE STORMS MAY PRODUCE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.
LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS OR POSSIBLE FLOODING WARNINGS...SHOULD
THE RISK FOR MINOR LOW-LAND FLOODING BECOME MORE IMMINENT.

HOWERTON

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
336 AM CDT FRI MAY 8 2009

KSZ051-080930-
MCPHERSON-
336 AM CDT FRI MAY 8 2009

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WICHITA HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ALERT FOR MCPHERSON COUNTY...

AT 334 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE TRACKING
A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 5 MILES SOUTHEAST OF WINDOM...OR 10 MILES WEST
OF MCPHERSON...AND MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

BE PREPARED TO TAKE SHELTER IN THE EVENT THESE STORMS INTENSIFY AND
BECOME SEVERE, OR A WARNING IS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

KRC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
355 AM CDT FRI MAY 08 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0355 AM     FLOOD            LYONS                   38.35N 98.20W
05/08/2009                   RICE               KS   AMATEUR RADIO

            STREET FLOODING IN LYONS

&&

LFW

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
401 AM CDT FRI MAY 08 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0354 AM     HAIL             2 N WEST WICHITA        37.72N 97.46W
05/08/2009  E0.88 INCH       SEDGWICK           KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

LFW