River Flood Warning 53, NWS Wichita, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
655 AM CDT FRI MAY 8 2009

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
LINE OF STRONG-SEVERE TSRA CONTINUES SE SURGE ACROSS FAR SE KS. AT
7 AM CDT...GREATEST THREAT FOR TSRA CAPABLE OF DAMAGING 60 MPH
WINDS TARGETED LABETTE COUNTY. AS SUCH HAVE BEGUN TO CLEAR PART OF
SE KS FROM SVR #264. AT CURRENT TRENDS REMAINDER OF SVR #264
SHOULD EXPIRE ON SCHEDULE. POPS...WX & QPF GRIDS HAVE BEEN UPDATED
TO REFLECT LATEST TRENDS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 611 AM CDT FRI MAY 8 2009/

UPDATE...

CLEARED SVR #264 FROM ALL OF CNTRL KS AS WELL AS MOST OF SC KS
WITH EXCEPTIONS BEING SUMNER...COWLEY & BUTLER COUNTIES.

AVIATION...12Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
GREATEST CONCERN IS KCNU WHERE STRONG-SEVERE TSRA MOVING THRU SE
KS WILL PRODUCE 50-60KT WINDS & +RA THRU 14Z. CIGS TO IMPROVE TO
MVFR STATUS AS MORNING PROGRESSES WITH CIGS 1,500FT LIKELY BY
08/17Z. VFR CIGS & VSBYS ANTICIPATED FOR EACH OF THE REMAINING 4
TERMINALS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 324 AM CDT FRI MAY 8 2009/

SYNOPSIS...
EVOLVING LINE OF STRONG/SEVERE TSRA OVER WRN KS SPREADING SE TOWARD WRN
PERIPHERY OF KICT COUNTRY EARLY THIS MORNING ALONG SE-MOVING COLD FRONT.
AT 3 AM CDT THE EXPANDING LINE OF CONVECTION CURVED FROM NEAR KDDC TO
JUST N OF KHUT. THE EXPANDING LINE OF CONVECTION WILL GREATLY INTENSIFY
AS IT VENTURES TOWARD REGION OF GREATEST INSTABILITY RESIDING OVER SW KS
& NW OK WHERE MUCAPES OF 3,000-5,000 J/KG & ULTRA HIGH OCTANE SFC-850MB
MOISTURE EXISTS.

DISCUSSION...
TODAY & TONIGHT:
NO DOUBT PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN IS SIGNIFICANT SEVERE CONVECTIVE TSRA
.ESPECIALLY EARLY THIS MORNING OVER SC KS WHERE CLOSER PROXIMITY TO
AFORE-MENTIONED INSTABILITY & WHERE BETTER ALIGNED TO STRENGTHENING LOW
LEVEL JET. THE LATTER FEATURE...WHICH HAD REACHED 60-70 KTS OVER WRN OK
PER VICI OK PROFILER...WILL CONTINUE TO INJECT ULTRA-HIGH OCTANE SFC TO
850MB FUEL NE OVER SC KS THROUGH DAYBREAK. AS SUCH MAGNITUDE OF
SEVERITY TO INCREASE CONSIDERABLY WITH BOTH VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS OF 70-80 MPH POSSIBLE. AS PARENT MID-UPR SHORTWAVE SPRINTS E
ACROSS NEBRASKA/SD...THE COLD FRONT WILL SURGE SE ACROSS SE KS WHERE
FLASH FLOODING BECOMES AN INCREASING CONCERN IN ADDITION TO DAMAGING
WINDS AS MCS EVOLVES. PRECIPITABLE WATERS SOME 150-200% OF NORMAL ARE
PROGGED OVER SE KS THIS MORNING & AS SUCH WILL KEEP FLASH FLOOD WATCH
IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF SE KS TIL 12N. AS THE AFORE-MENTIONED MID-LEVEL
SHORT WAVE SPRINTS E ACROSS MID-UPR MS VALLEY...THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE
FORCED SUFFICIENTLY S/SE ACROSS OK TO ALLOW TSRA TO END IN NW-SE MANNER
OVER SC & SE KS EARLY THIS EVENING.

THIS WEEKEND:
GENERALLY UNSEASONABLY COOL WEATHER SLATED FOR ALL AREAS AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE SPREADS SE ACROSS KS. A FEW SHRA/ISOLATED TSRA MAY REDEVELOP
OVER NW KS AS ISENTROPIC ASCENT INCREASES & DEEPENS IN RESPONSE TO
NEXT BUT FAIRLY BROAD MID-LEVEL TROF VENTURES SE OVER CO. THESE SHRA
WILL SPREAD E ACROSS PRIMARILY CENTRAL KS LATE SAT NIGHT & EARLY SUN.

AVIATION...06Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION WILL ALSO DEVELOP BETWEEN 06Z-09Z
ACROSS WEST CENTRAL INTO PARTS OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS. SCATTERED SUPERCELL STORMS ARE INITIALLY EXPECTED WITH
VERY LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. THE
CONVECTION IS THEN EXPECTED TO EXPAND INTO A LARGER MESOSCALE
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX TOWARD 12Z...AS IT MOVES FROM SOUTH CENTRAL
INTO PARTS OF SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. PERIODS OF
IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. WILL
CONTINUE TO SHOW A TEMPO GROUP WITH HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS AT
KICT/KHUT AND KCNU WHEN WE BELIEVE THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF THE
CONVECTION WILL AFFECT THE AREA. RELATIVELY SMALLER CHANCES FOR
STORMS ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS...HOWEVER WILL SHOW A BRIEF TEMPO
PERIOD AS WELL. A GENERAL IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IS EXPECTED ACROSS
MOST AREAS EXCEPT SOUTHEAST KANSAS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WITH VFR
ALL AREAS BY FRIDAY EVENING.

KED

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    75  53  70  49 /  40  20   0  20
HUTCHINSON      74  51  69  49 /  30  10   0  20
NEWTON          74  52  70  49 /  30  20   0  20
ELDORADO        75  53  70  49 /  50  20   0  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   76  54  70  49 /  60  30  10  10
RUSSELL         73  48  69  48 /  10   0   0  20
GREAT BEND      74  49  69  49 /  20  10   0  20
SALINA          73  50  69  48 /  20   0   0  20
MCPHERSON       74  51  69  49 /  30  10   0  20
COFFEYVILLE     76  55  70  48 /  80  40  10  10
CHANUTE         74  54  70  48 /  80  30  10  10
IOLA            74  54  69  48 /  70  30   0  10
PARSONS-KPPF    75  55  70  48 /  80  40  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON CDT TODAY FOR KSZ093>096-098>100.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
418 AM CDT FRI MAY 8 2009

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-090930-
RUSSELL-LINCOLN-BARTON-ELLSWORTH-SALINE-RICE-MCPHERSON-MARION-CHASE-
RENO-HARVEY-BUTLER-GREENWOOD-WOODSON-ALLEN-KINGMAN-SEDGWICK-HARPER-
SUMNER-COWLEY-ELK-WILSON-NEOSHO-CHAUTAUQUA-MONTGOMERY-LABETTE-
418 AM CDT FRI MAY 8 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL...SOUTH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A COMPLEX OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING 2 INCH
DIAMETER HAIL...60 TO 70 MPH WINDS...AND VERY HEAVY RAINS...WILL
CONTINUE OVER PRIMARILY SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS THIS
MORNING. FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE OVER MOST OF SOUTHEAST KANSAS
THROUGH 12 NOON WHERE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT. SOME
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS
TONIGHT...IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
OKLAHOMA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

AFTER A BRIEF INTERMISSION ON SATURDAY...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL RETURN TO MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SPREAD OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER...NONE
OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BE STRONG OR SEVERE.

A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY
NIGHT...AS WELL AS FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS ACTIVITY
SHOULD BE NEITHER STRONG NOR SEVERE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THIS MORNING IN
SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION...SEE OUR WEBPAGE AT
(LOWERCASE) HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/WICHITA/HWO/HWO.PHP

ES

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