Flash Flood Warning 3, NWS Wichita, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
853 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2009

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
LINE OF STRONG TSRA CAPABLE OF PRODUCING 40-50 MPH WINDS CONTINUES
TO SURGE E/NE ACROSS BUTLER COUNTY THIS EVENING. THE APEX OF THE
SLIGHTLY BOWING LINE WILL TARGET BUTLER...SRN CHASE & GREENWOOD
COUNTIES THROUGH 930 PM CDT. OVERALL...THIS LINE OF STRONG TSRA
EXTENDS SW TO THROUGH HARPER COUNTY TO ALFALFA COUNTY OK. THE SWRN
MOST SEGMENT...MOVING THROUGH SUMNER COUNTY...MAY ALSO PRODUCE 1/2
INCH DIAMETER HAIL AND TORRENTIAL RAINS OF THE ORDER OF 1 TO 1 1/2
INCHES PER HOUR. MOVEMENT CONTINUES TOWARD THE NE 40 MPH.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 806 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2009/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 804 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2009/

MESOSCALE UPDATE...CORRECTED
THE BOW ECHO THAT UNLEASHED 60-70 MPH WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF SC KS IS
SURGING NE ACROSS NE KS EARLY THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...ANOTHER LINE
OF STRONG TSRA IS SURGING NE40 TOWARD THE SC KS SEGMENT OF THE KS
TURNPIKE AT 8 PM CDT. THIS LINE OF CONVECTION LIKELY CONTAINS 40-50
MPH WINDS SO THOSE TRAVELING ON THE KS TURNPIKE NEED TO BE ALERT TO
STRONG WLY CROSS WINDS...ESPECIALLY FROM 815 TO 830 PM CDT.

SHORT TERM...
THE WIND ADVISORY THAT HAD BEEN IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF SC & SE KS
HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 655 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2009/

MESOSCALE UPDATE...
BOW ECHO CONTINUES TO RACE NE40 TOWARD KS TURNPIKE WITH APEX OF BOW
PARALLELING AREAS ALONG & JUST NW OF TURNPIKE THRU 730 PM CDT. WINDS
OF 60-70 MPH HAVE BEEN REPORTED WITH THE BOW ECHO IN VALLEY CENTER &
NEAR PARK CITY. TORRENTIAL RAINFALLS AT RATES OF 1 INCH/HR ARE LIKELY
AS THE LINE OF SEVERE TSRA SURGES NE WITH LOCALIZED VSBYS LESS THAN
1 MILE LIKELY AS WELL.

AVIATION...00Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
LINE OF STRONG/SEVERE TSRA TO IMPACT ALL BUT KRSL TONIGHT WITH VSBYS
LOCALLY REDUCED TO 1SM +TSRA WITH 40-50KT GUSTS LIKELY AS WELL.
OTHERWISE...MVFR CIGS & VSBYS TO PREVAIL FOR MOST OF VALID TAF CYCLE
WITH IFR CIGS LIKELY AT KSLN LATE TONIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2009/

SYNOPSIS...
THIS AFTERNOON...A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT WAS DRAPED IN A NE-SW MANNER
FROM CNTRL NEBRASKA TO SE CO. A STRONG DRY LINE EXTENDED S/SW FROM THE
FRONT BETWEEEN KDDC & KGCK ACROSS ERN SECTIONS OF THE TX PANHANDLE. THE
BEHAVIOR OF THE FRONT WILL BE A MAJOR CONCERN FROM TONIGHT THROUGH MON
EVENING AS IT WILL NO DOUBT BE THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR NUMEROUS STRONG TO
SEVERE TSRA CAPABLE OF ALSO PRODUCING +RA THROUGH MON MORNING.

DISCUSSION...
TONIGHT-MON NIGHT:
WITH STRONG() HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER FAR SE CONUS EACH SHORT-WAVE
EJECTING FROM MAIN UPR-DECK TROF POSITIONED OVER PACIFIC NW WILL LIKELY
BE FORCED NE ACROSS CNTRL/NRN PLAINS. IN RESPONSE...THE AFORE-MENTIONED
STATIONARY FRONT WOULD TRANSITION INTO COLD FRONT & MOVE SLOWLY SE
ACROSS KICT COUNTRY TONIGHT & MON MORNING. ENCOUNTERING RICHER & DEEPER
MOISTURE AS IT MOVES SE THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO TRIGGER NUMEROUS
+TSRA ACROSS THE REGION...MANY OF WHICH WILL LIKELY BE SEVERE WITH +RA
AN INCREASING THREAT AS TONIGHT PROGRESSES. A FLOOD WATCH WILL THEREFORE
REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR MOST AREAS ALONG & E OF I-135 THROUGH 1 PM MON. A
2ND MID-UPR SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE MEAN WRN U.S. UPR TROF IS
A BIT STRONGER THAN ITS PREDECSSOR & SHOULD PROVIDE A SUFFICIENT KICKER
TO FORCE THE COLD FRONT ACROSS SE KS MON AFTERNOON. AS SUCH THE FLOOD
WATCH EXPIRATION TIME OF 1 PM LOOKS QUITE GOOD. SCT POST-FRONTAL SHRA
MAY LINGER OVER SE KS MON EVENING.

TUE:
A BRIEF INTERMISSION FROM CONVECTION STILL SLATED FOR ALL AREAS AS WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES SE FROM THE NRN PLAINS.

TUE NIGHT-THU NIGHT:
MORE TSRA ARE SCHEDULED TO ARRIVE TUE NIGHT AS A SFC TROF DEVELOPS ALONG
THE FRONT RANGE. THE PROBABILITIES SHOULD INCREASE WED & WED NIGHT AS A
SFC LOW...STRENGTHENING OVER SW KS WED AFTERNOON...SCOOTS NE ACROSS KICT
COUNTRY ALLOWING A POTENT COLD FRONT TO SURGE SE ACROSS KS WED NIGHT. AS
SUCH THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG...& POSSIBLY SEVERE...TSRA WILL LIKEWISE
INCREASE DURING MID-WEEK. STAY TUNED.

NEXT WEEKEND:
SHOULD START UNSEASONABLY COOL AS A WEAK SEMI-INVERTED HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE SPREADS SE ACROSS KS FRI & FRI NIGHT. VERY GRADUAL WARMUP THEN
ENSUES SAT AFTERNOON AS WEAK SFC TROFFING DEVELOPS ALONG FRONT RANGE.
TSRA SHOULD DEVELOP OVER WRN PLAINS SAT EVENING AS MID-UPR SHORT-WAVE
SCOOTS E OVER NM...THEN SPREAD E ACROSS MUCH OF KICT COUNTRY LATE SAT
NIGHT. ANY CHANCES FOR TSRA WOULD SHIFT E OVER PRIMARILY SE KS ON SUN.

AVIATION...18Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
THUNDERSTORMS ARE THE MAIN FOCUS OF THIS FORECAST. WITH
THUNDERSTORM AND SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA TODAY AND INTO
TONIGHT...MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE EXPECTED ACROSS ALL TAF
SITES. VISIBILITIES WILL LIKELY DROP TO 2 TO 3SM AS THUNDERSTORMS
MOVE THROUGH TAF SITES...BUT HARD TO TIME. THE SURFACE FRONT IS
THROUGH KRSL AS OF THIS TAF ISSUANCE...BUT TIMING OF HOW QUICKLY
IT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST IS DIFFICULT AT THIS TIME. THE FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH KSLN...KHUT AND KICT THROUGHOUT
THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS...BEFORE PUSHING OFF SOUTHEAST THROUGH
KCNU SOMETIME MONDAY.

BILLINGS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    60  63  39  68 /  80  50  10   0
HUTCHINSON      55  59  38  66 /  90  50   0   0
NEWTON          57  60  38  67 /  90  60  10   0
ELDORADO        60  63  40  68 /  90  60  20   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   63  68  42  70 /  80  60  20   0
RUSSELL         47  57  38  66 /  80  30   0   0
GREAT BEND      50  58  38  66 /  80  30   0   0
SALINA          50  57  38  66 /  90  40   0   0
MCPHERSON       53  58  38  66 /  90  50   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     65  71  45  72 /  80  60  30   0
CHANUTE         63  67  43  69 /  80  60  30   0
IOLA            62  66  42  68 /  90  70  30   0
PARSONS-KPPF    65  70  45  70 /  80  60  30   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR KSZ048>053-067>071-082-
083-091>095-098.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
415 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2009

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-272115-
RUSSELL-LINCOLN-BARTON-ELLSWORTH-SALINE-RICE-MCPHERSON-MARION-CHASE-
RENO-HARVEY-BUTLER-GREENWOOD-WOODSON-ALLEN-KINGMAN-SEDGWICK-HARPER-
SUMNER-COWLEY-ELK-WILSON-NEOSHO-CHAUTAUQUA-MONTGOMERY-LABETTE-
415 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL...SOUTH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY OVER MOST AREAS AS A SECOND...AND
STRONGER...COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS
TONIGHT. WHILE LARGE HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF GOLFBALLS AND DAMAGING
70 MPH WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS...A FEW TORNADOES ARE ALSO
LIKELY AND MAY BE RAIN WRAPPED...ESPECIALLY EARLY THIS EVENING.
LATER TONIGHT...THE PRIMARY THREATS WILL BE DAMAGING 60 TO 70 MPH
WINDS AND VERY HEAVY RAINS THAT ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE FLOODING.
PLEASE SEE THE LATEST FLOOD WATCH FOR DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

A FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES INTO MONDAY MORNING. IN ADDITION...STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER AREAS GENERALLY ALONG...AND
SOUTHEAST...OF THE TURNPIKE...ESPECIALLY MONDAY MORNING.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT AND LINGER THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK. THE BEST CHANCES FOR STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS TICKETED FOR THE AREA WEDESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS A POTENT COLD FRONT SURGES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO
TONIGHT.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION...SEE OUR WEBPAGE AT
(LOWERCASE) HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/WICHITA/HWO/HWO.PHP

ES

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
950 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0946 PM     HAIL             2 S MILAN               37.23N 97.67W
04/26/2009  E0.88 INCH       SUMNER             KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

BDK

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
959 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2009

KSZ083-270330-
SEDGWICK-
959 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2009

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WICHITA HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ALERT FOR SEDGWICK COUNTY...

AT 958 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE TRACKING
A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR VIOLA...OR 19 MILES NORTHWEST OF
WELLINGTON...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

PENNY TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH
THIS STORM.

BE PREPARED TO TAKE SHELTER IN THE EVENT THESE STORMS INTENSIFY AND
BECOME SEVERE, OR A WARNING IS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

LAWSON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1000 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0935 PM     FLASH FLOOD      2 E DOWNTOWN WICHITA    37.69N 97.31W
04/26/2009                   SEDGWICK           KS   NWS EMPLOYEE

            WATER FLOWING OVER THE CURBS BETWEEN DOUGLAS AVENUE AND
            CENTRAL AVENUE NEAR HILLSIDE STREET.

&&

SCHRECK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1006 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1000 PM     HAIL             4 E CONWAY SPRINGS      37.39N 97.57W
04/26/2009  E0.88 INCH       SUMNER             KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            AT 90TH AVENUE AND SUMNER ROAD.

&&

BDK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1020 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1019 PM     HEAVY RAIN       3 NW MID CONTINENT AIRP 37.69N 97.48W
04/26/2009  M4.00 INCH       SEDGWICK           KS   NWS EMPLOYEE

&&

KED

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1022 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2009

KSZ069-093-270345-
BUTLER-COWLEY-
1022 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2009

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WICHITA HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ALERT FOR BUTLER AND COWLEY COUNTIES...

AT 1022 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE
TRACKING STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM ANDOVER TO
MULVANE TO 5 MILES SOUTHWEST OF OXFORD...AND MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

BE PREPARED TO TAKE SHELTER IN THE EVENT THESE STORMS INTENSIFY AND
BECOME SEVERE, OR A WARNING IS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

LAWSON