Severe Thunderstorm Warning 71, NWS Huntsville, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
630 PM CDT MON APR 13 2009

.UPDATE...FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION
&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE SHORT TERM...MAIN ISSUES CENTER AROUND CONVECTION MOVING
THROUGH NORTH ALABAMA. WILL HANDLE THIS WITH A VCTS FOR RIGHT
NOW...BUT HAIL/GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY TS MOVING DIRECTLY
OVER EITHER TERMINAL. DECK OF MVFR BKN/OVC CIGS IS BEHIND THE MAIN
COLD FRONT...AND WILL ARRIVE INTO BOTH TERMINALS THIS EVENING. LOW
CIGS WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE NIGHT...BEFORE GRADUALLY LIFTING
TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
&&

.DISCUSSION.../ISSUED AT 308 PM CDT MON APR 13 2009/
BROKEN LINE OF CONVECTION IS NOW UNDERWAY ALONG PRE-FRONTAL TROF
FROM MIDDLE KY/TN INTO NW AL. ACTIVITY REMAINS MORE WELL-ORGANIZED
TO OUR N. CELLS ARE TRYING TO REMAIN DISCRETE GIVEN PLENTY OF DEEP
LAYER BULK SHEAR. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE REMAINS WEAK AND IS A
LIMITING FACTOR SO FAR ACROSS NW AL...ALTHOUGH CU FIELD REMAINS
RATHER SOLID INTO ERN MS. CURRENT HODOGRAPH HAS BECOME MORE LINEAR
AT KGWX/OKOLONA BEHIND THE SFC TROF. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS
HIGHER E OF I-65 PER KHTX HODOGRAPH WHICH HAS A 0-1KM BULK SHEAR
VALUE OF 38KT AND 0-2KM SRH OF 123 M2S2. PRIMARY THREATS REMAIN
LARGE HAIL...BUT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR CELL TRENDS AS THEY MOVE
INTO BETTER LOW LEVEL SHEAR ENVIRONMENT.

IN GENERAL...THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL WANE FROM WEST TO EAST THIS
EVENING AS COOLER/MORE STABLE AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION. THAT BEING
SAID...NAM/NSSL-WRF BOTH SUGGEST TSRA REGENERATION ALONG THE MAIN
COLD FRONT TONIGHT ALONG PLUME OF 60+ DEWPOINTS ADVECTING INTO
NORTHEAST ALABAMA. NAM IS PROBABLY TOO BULLISH WITH THIS MOISTURE
RETURN...BUT WILL STILL RETAIN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH
THE NIGHT ELSEWHERE AS UPSTREAM OBS /IN PLACES LIKE MISSOURI/ SHOW
LIGHT RAIN BEHIND THE MAIN FRONT.

TUESDAY WILL BE A DREARY DAY ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING
SURFACE LOW...WITH EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND HIGHS ONLY TOPPING OUT
AROUND 60. ALTHOUGH PWATS WILL BE FAIRLY PALTRY /AROUND .5
INCHES/...CAPE VALUES AROUND 50 J/KG SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SQUEEZE OUT
A LIGHT RAIN SHOWER OR TWO...ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING.

AFTER AN UNSEASONABLY COOL NIGHT ON TUESDAY /LOWS AROUND
40/...TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK WILL
SLOWLY MODERATE AS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST.
MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY RETURN TO THE AREA ON SATURDAY AS LOW LEVEL
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHERLY...WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM
PROGGED TO IMPACT THE CWFA ARRIVING ON THE WEEKEND. STILL IN THE
WARM SECTOR...TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY SHOULD BE JUST ABOVE NORMAL
DESPITE THE CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVERAGE...AND DEPENDING ON THE
TIMING OF THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT...SUNDAY MAY BE WARM AS WELL. FOR
NOW...HAVE GONE WITH THE HIGHEST SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR THE
WEEKEND ON SUNDAY...IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SLIGHTLY FOR THE START OF THE NEXT WORK
WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    49  60  40  64  43 /  50  20  10   0   0
SHOALS        48  59  40  66  43 /  30  20  10   0   0
CULLMAN       51  58  39  65  42 /  50  20  10   0   0
FAYETTEVILLE  48  56  39  62  43 /  40  20  10  10   0
ALBERTVILLE   51  60  38  63  42 /  70  20  10   0   0
FORT PAYNE    53  62  39  63  43 /  70  20  10   0   0

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

JLL

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK..UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
655 PM CDT MON APR 13 2009

ALZ001>010-016-TNZ076-096-097-141000-
LAUDERDALE-COLBERT-FRANKLIN AL-LAWRENCE-LIMESTONE-MADISON-MORGAN-
MARSHALL-JACKSON-DEKALB-CULLMAN-MOORE-LINCOLN-FRANKLIN TN-
655 PM CDT MON APR 13 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH ALABAMA AND PORTIONS
OF SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT...

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING AHEAD OF A
NEARLY STATIONARY COLD FRONT. SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE
SEVERE...WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE
UNLIKELY...BUT CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

THE GREATEST SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE WEST OF INTERSTATE 65
EARLY THIS EVENING...BEFORE SLOWLY SHIFTING EAST...AND EVENTUALLY
ENDING OVER NORTHEAST ALABAMA BY MIDNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED NEXT WEEKEND.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IS
REQUESTED THIS EVENING.

JLL

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
605 PM CDT MON APR 13 2009

TNZ096-132345-
LINCOLN-
605 PM CDT MON APR 13 2009

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR LINCOLN COUNTY UNTIL 645 PM CDT...

AT 604 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR TONEY...OR 11 MILES NORTHWEST OF
MERIDIANVILLE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WINDS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.
THIS STORM HAS A HISTORY OF PRODUCING DIME SIZE HAIL.

* LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH INCLUDE...
  CASH POINT.
  TAFT...BLANCHE.
  COLDWATER.
  CARMARGO...BELLEVIEW.
  SKINEM.
  MOLINO...HARMS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...COMMERCIAL RADIO...OR YOUR LOCAL
TELEVISION STATIONS FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS
CONCERNING THIS WEATHER SITUATION.

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
636 PM CDT MON APR 13 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0630 PM     HAIL             1 N FRENCH MILL         34.78N 86.88W
04/13/2009  E1.00 INCH       LIMESTONE          AL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            QUARTER SIZED HAIL REPORTED ON MCCULLY MILL RD.

&&

AMP

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
713 PM CDT MON APR 13 2009

ALZ001-005-140045-
LAUDERDALE-LIMESTONE-
713 PM CDT MON APR 13 2009

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR LAUDERDALE AND LIMESTONE COUNTIES
UNTIL 745 PM CDT...

AT 712 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR WHITEHEAD...OR 20 MILES EAST OF FLORENCE...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL...WINDS UP TO 40 MPH...AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

* LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH INCLUDE...
  ANDERSON.
  GOOD SPRINGS...CAIRO.
  LESTER...MT ROZELL.
  LEGGTOWN.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM CDT MONDAY EVENING FOR
NORTHERN ALABAMA AND CENTRAL TENNESSEE.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...COMMERCIAL RADIO...OR YOUR LOCAL
TELEVISION STATIONS FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS
CONCERNING THIS WEATHER SITUATION.

RSB