Severe Thunderstorm Warning 69, NWS Huntsville, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
308 PM CDT MON APR 13 2009

.DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM.../REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON/
BROKEN LINE OF CONVECTION IS NOW UNDERWAY ALONG PRE-FRONTAL TROF
FROM MIDDLE KY/TN INTO NW AL. ACTIVITY REMAINS MORE WELL-ORGANIZED
TO OUR N. CELLS ARE TRYING TO REMAIN DISCRETE GIVEN PLENTY OF DEEP
LAYER BULK SHEAR. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE REMAINS WEAK AND IS A
LIMITING FACTOR SO FAR ACROSS NW AL...ALTHOUGH CU FIELD REMAINS
RATHER SOLID INTO ERN MS. CURRENT HODOGRAPH HAS BECOME MORE LINEAR
AT KGWX/OKOLONA BEHIND THE SFC TROF. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS
HIGHER E OF I-65 PER KHTX HODOGRAPH WHICH HAS A 0-1KM BULK SHEAR
VALUE OF 38KT AND 0-2KM SRH OF 123 M2S2. PRIMARY THREATS REMAIN
LARGE HAIL...BUT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR CELL TRENDS AS THEY MOVE
INTO BETTER LOW LEVEL SHEAR ENVIRONMENT.

.LONG TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
IN GENERAL...THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL WANE FROM WEST TO EAST THIS
EVENING AS COOLER/MORE STABLE AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION. THAT BEING
SAID...NAM/NSSL-WRF BOTH SUGGEST TSRA REGENERATION ALONG THE MAIN
COLD FRONT TONIGHT ALONG PLUME OF 60+ DEWPOINTS ADVECTING INTO
NORTHEAST ALABAMA. NAM IS PROBABLY TOO BULLISH WITH THIS MOISTURE
RETURN...BUT WILL STILL RETAIN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH
THE NIGHT ELSEWHERE AS UPSTREAM OBS /IN PLACES LIKE MISSOURI/ SHOW
LIGHT RAIN BEHIND THE MAIN FRONT.

TUESDAY WILL BE A DREARY DAY ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING
SURFACE LOW...WITH EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND HIGHS ONLY TOPPING OUT
AROUND 60. ALTHOUGH PWATS WILL BE FAIRLY PALTRY /AROUND .5
INCHES/...CAPE VALUES AROUND 50 J/KG SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SQUEEZE OUT
A LIGHT RAIN SHOWER OR TWO...ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING.

AFTER AN UNSEASONABLY COOL NIGHT ON TUESDAY /LOWS AROUND
40/...TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK WILL
SLOWLY MODERATE AS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS ARCROSS THE SOUTHEAST.
MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY RETURN TO THE AREA ON SATURDAY AS LOW LEVEL
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHERLY...WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM
PROGGED TO IMPACT THE CWFA ARRIVING ON THE WEEKEND. STILL IN THE
WARM SECTOR...TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY SHOULD BE JUST ABOVE NORMAL
DESPITE THE CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVERAGE...AND DEPENDING ON THE
TIMING OF THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT...SUNDAY MAY BE WARM AS WELL. FOR
NOW...HAVE GONE WITH THE HIGHEST SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR THE
WEEKEND ON SUNDAY...IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SLIGHTLY FOR THE START OF THE NEXT WORK
WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    49  60  40  64  43 /  50  20  10   0   0
SHOALS        48  59  40  66  43 /  30  20  10   0   0
CULLMAN       51  58  39  65  42 /  50  20  10   0   0
FAYETTEVILLE  48  56  39  62  43 /  40  20  10  10   0
ALBERTVILLE   51  60  38  63  42 /  70  20  10   0   0
FORT PAYNE    53  62  39  63  43 /  70  20  10   0   0

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...KULA
LONG TERM...JLL

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1230 PM CDT MON APR 13 2009

ALZ001>010-016-TNZ076-096-097-140200-
LAUDERDALE-COLBERT-FRANKLIN AL-LAWRENCE-LIMESTONE-MADISON-MORGAN-
MARSHALL-JACKSON-DEKALB-CULLMAN-MOORE-LINCOLN-FRANKLIN TN-
1230 PM CDT MON APR 13 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH ALABAMA AND PORTIONS
OF SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG A COLD FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON.  SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE...CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE
UNLIKELY...BUT CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL EXIST WEST OF INTERSTATE 65
BETWEEN 2 PM AND 5 PM AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 65 BETWEEN 5 PM AND 9
PM THIS EVENING. IN GENERAL...CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AS LAST FRIDAY...BUT
MAY STILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SOME SEVERE WEATHER.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED NEXT WEEKEND.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL
MAY BE REQUESTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

KULA

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
549 PM CDT MON APR 13 2009

ALZ006-132330-
MADISON-
549 PM CDT MON APR 13 2009

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR NORTHERN MADISON COUNTY UNTIL 630
PM CDT...

AT 547 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR FRENCH MILL...OR 5 MILES EAST OF ATHENS...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

ONE HALF INCH HAIL AND BRIEF WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED
WITH THIS STORM.

* LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH INCLUDE...
  HARVEST.
  TONEY.
  GLADSTONE...ELKWOOD.
  MERIDIANVILLE.
  FISK...HAZEL GREEN.
  PLEVNA...NEW MARKET.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM CDT MONDAY EVENING FOR
NORTHERN ALABAMA AND CENTRAL TENNESSEE.

CBD

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
602 PM CDT MON APR 13 2009

ALZ003-132330-
FRANKLIN-
602 PM CDT MON APR 13 2009

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR FRANKLIN COUNTY UNTIL 630 PM CDT...

AT 601 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR ATWOOD...OR 9 MILES SOUTHEAST OF RED BAY...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL...WINDS UP TO 40 MPH...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING...AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

* LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH INCLUDE...
  DEMPSEY.
  BELGREEN.
  ROCKWOOD...ISBELL.

THIS THUNDERSTORM COULD INTENSIFY QUICKLY...SO BE READY TO ACT IF A
WARNING IS ISSUED.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM CDT MONDAY EVENING FOR
NORTHERN ALABAMA AND CENTRAL TENNESSEE.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...COMMERCIAL RADIO...OR YOUR LOCAL
TELEVISION STATIONS FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS
CONCERNING THIS WEATHER SITUATION.

RSB

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
605 PM CDT MON APR 13 2009

TNZ096-132345-
LINCOLN-
605 PM CDT MON APR 13 2009

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR LINCOLN COUNTY UNTIL 645 PM CDT...

AT 604 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR TONEY...OR 11 MILES NORTHWEST OF
MERIDIANVILLE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WINDS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.
THIS STORM HAS A HISTORY OF PRODUCING DIME SIZE HAIL.

* LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH INCLUDE...
  CASH POINT.
  TAFT...BLANCHE.
  COLDWATER.
  CARMARGO...BELLEVIEW.
  SKINEM.
  MOLINO...HARMS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...COMMERCIAL RADIO...OR YOUR LOCAL
TELEVISION STATIONS FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS
CONCERNING THIS WEATHER SITUATION.

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