Severe Thunderstorm Warning 237, NWS Huntsville, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
320 PM CDT FRI OCT 9 2009

.DISCUSSION...
BUSY WEATHER IS IN PROGRESS AS A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. MORE DISCRETE STORM AHEAD OF THIS LINE WERE SHOWING
MORE STRUCTURE AND ROTATION...WITH ACTIVE CONVECTIVE WARNINGS FOR
PARTS OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.

BIG PICTURE WISE...A DEEP TROUGH CONTINUED TO DIG ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PORTION OF THE LOWER-48...AS STRONG UPPER HIGH PRESSURE OVER FLORIDA
GRADUALLY SUBSIDES AND MOVES OUT TO SEA. THE FIRST FRONT AND LINE OF
SHOWERS/STORMS EXTENDED FROM NASHVILLE TO NE MISSISSIPPI...WITH A
SECOND BOUNDARY NOTED FROM NW PENNSYLVANIA TO CENTRAL ARKANSAS. THE
MAIN AREA OF CONVECTION SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE COUNTY WARNING AREA
FROM NW-SE THROUGH THE COURSE OF THIS EVENING. WITH PRECIP WATER
AMOUNTS IN THE 1.7 TO 2.1 INCHES OR SO...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN RATES OF
1-2 INCHES PER HOUR ARE EXPECTED. THIS WILL RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING
ACROSS THE AREA. GIVEN THE RISK OF MODERATE/HEAVY RAINFALL HAVE
EXTENDED THE WATCH UNTIL 1 AM CDT FOR THE AREA.

SHOWERS WITH LESS THUNDER WILL CONTINUE ON SATURDAY AS THE FRONT
PUSHES FURTHER SOUTH. HAVE TRENDED RAIN CHANCES DOWN DURING THE
AFTERNOON...WITH DRY WEATHER FOR SATURDAY EVENING. SUNDAY LOOKS TO
BE THE ONLY TRULY DRY DAYS THIS WEEKEND. SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN
AVERAGE TEMPS ARE EXPECTED...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S.

RAIN AGAIN WILL RETURN...AS MOISTURE FROM THE STALLED OUT FRONT
SOUTH OF THE AREA CREEPS BACK TO THE NORTH. MODEL OUTPUT...
ESPECIALLY FROM THE ECMWF SUGGESTS AN UNSETTLED WEEK FOR THE AREA.
GIVEN THE VARIOUS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEMS TRAVERSING THE AREA AND A
LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY...HAVE KEPT SOME RAIN CHANCES GOING FOR
ALL OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...      /ISSUED 18Z/
LINE OF SHRA WITH A FEW EMBEDDED TSRA CONTINUES TO WORK ITS WAY
ACROSS WRN TN/NRN MS. SWLY GRADIENT WIND IS ALREADY GUSTING OVER 25
KT AND SFC WINDS COULD RUN SLIGHTLY HIGHER IN AND NEAR THE
APPROACHING LINE. CEILINGS SHOULD ALSO HOVER NEAR MVFR LEVELS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HRS BEFORE LOWERING BELOW 3K FT AFTER 01Z SAT.
SOME LIGHT TO MOD RESIDUAL RAINFALL IS ALSO XPCTED THROUGH THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HRS HELPING TO SOLIDIFY MVFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    58  67  51  72  57 / 100  90  10  10  30
SHOALS        57  65  51  71  55 / 100  70  10  10  30
VINEMONT      57  68  52  70  57 / 100  90  10  10  30
FAYETTEVILLE  56  64  50  71  56 / 100  70  10  10  30
ALBERTVILLE   59  68  52  71  58 / 100  90  10  10  30
FORT PAYNE    60  69  53  72  57 / 100  90  10  10  30

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: CULLMAN...DEKALB...JACKSON...MARSHALL.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COLBERT...FRANKLIN AL...LAUDERDALE...LAWRENCE...LIMESTONE...
     MADISON...MORGAN.

TN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     FRANKLIN TN...LINCOLN...MOORE.

&&

DISCUSSION...RSB
AVIATION...09

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1200 PM CDT FRI OCT 9 2009

ALZ001>010-016-TNZ076-096-097-101000-
LAUDERDALE-COLBERT-FRANKLIN AL-LAWRENCE-LIMESTONE-MADISON-MORGAN-
MARSHALL-JACKSON-DEKALB-CULLMAN-MOORE-LINCOLN-FRANKLIN TN-
1200 PM CDT FRI OCT 9 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH ALABAMA AND PORTIONS
OF SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING DAMAGING
WINDS THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.

A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL TRACK
EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL TENNESSEE VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS MAY ALSO DEVELOP ALONG OR AHEAD OF THIS LINE.

ALONG WITH THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER...VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AROUND
1 TO 3 INCHES PER HOUR WILL INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOODING. AS SUCH...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL ALONG WITH AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS
EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING INTO SATURDAY. THE RAINFALL THOUGH IS
EXPECTED TO COME TO AN END LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IS
NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME...ALTHOUGH ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUESTED
IF THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD. FIRST
RESPONSE AGENCIES ARE ALSO REQUESTED TO RELAY ANY REPORTS OF FLASH
FLOODING TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HUNTSVILLE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
213 PM CDT FRI OCT 9 2009

ALZ005-091945-
LIMESTONE-
213 PM CDT FRI OCT 9 2009

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR LIMESTONE COUNTY UNTIL 245 PM CDT...

AT 213 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR ATHENS...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

WINDS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

* LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH INCLUDE...
  ATHENS.
  ELKMONT...LEGGTOWN.
  HOLLAND GIN.
  BETHEL...ARDMORE.

THIS THUNDERSTORM COULD INTENSIFY QUICKLY...SO BE READY TO ACT IF A
WARNING IS ISSUED.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 500 PM CDT FRIDAY AFTERNOON
FOR NORTHWESTERN ALABAMA AND CENTRAL TENNESSEE.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...COMMERCIAL RADIO...OR YOUR LOCAL
TELEVISION STATIONS FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS
CONCERNING THIS WEATHER SITUATION.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
227 PM CDT FRI OCT 9 2009

ALZ001-002-092015-
COLBERT-LAUDERDALE-
227 PM CDT FRI OCT 9 2009

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR COLBERT AND LAUDERDALE COUNTIES
UNTIL 315 PM CDT...

AT 225 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR ALLSBORO...OR 9 MILES SOUTHEAST OF IUKA...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

WINDS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

* LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH INCLUDE...
  MT HESTER.
  CHEROKEE.
  BARTON...RED ROCK.
  PRIDE LANDING.
  OAKLAND...TUSCUMBIA.
  FLORENCE...SHEFFIELD.

THIS THUNDERSTORM COULD INTENSIFY QUICKLY...SO BE READY TO ACT IF A
WARNING IS ISSUED.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 500 PM CDT FRIDAY AFTERNOON
FOR NORTHWESTERN ALABAMA AND CENTRAL TENNESSEE.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...COMMERCIAL RADIO...OR YOUR LOCAL
TELEVISION STATIONS FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS
CONCERNING THIS WEATHER SITUATION.