Severe Thunderstorm Warning 34, NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
328 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2009

.DISCUSSION...
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS THIS
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING DRYLINE AND COLD FRONT. THIS
ACTIVITY IS IN RESPONSE TO A STRONG UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM
TRANSITING ACROSS THE RED RIVER TODAY AND TOMORROW. AT 3PM DRYLINE
WAS APPROACHING OUR WESTERN COUNTIES AND WILL RAPIDLY MOVE EAST
ACROSS THE REGION. SKIES WILL CLEAR RAPIDLY BEHIND THE DRYLINE AND
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL LATER TONIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA. LOW TEMPS TONIGHT STILL LOOK TO DROP INTO THE 40S
WITH UPPER 30S IN OUR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES. WINDS TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW WILL BE BRISK BUT AT THE MOMENT APPEAR TO REMAIN BELOW
WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA.

AFTER TODAYS ACTIVE WEATHER THE REST OF THE WEEK LOOKS RELATIVELY
BENIGN. RETURN FLOW WILL SET UP AGAIN LATE SUNDAY AND TEMPERATURES
WILL MODERATE AS MOISTURE LEVELS INCREASE. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS
ARE ADVERTISING ANOTHER MOVING ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY. IT
LOOKS LIKE THERE MAY BE ENOUGH MOISTURE TO PRODUCE SOME
PRECIPITATION WITH THIS FRONT BUT WILL LEAVE THE CURRENT 20 POPS
IN PLACE FOR NOW. ALL IN ALL A PLEASANT FEW DAYS IN STORE AFTER
TODAYS UNSETTLED WEATHER. 38

&&

.MARINE...
AS PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED...STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHING ACROSS MARINE
WATERS THIS EVENING WITH VERY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND BOUNDARY.
WAVE HEIGHTS WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE ESPECIALLY FOR THE OFFSHORE
WATERS LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH REST OF NIGHT. SCA FOR MARINE
WATERS TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY WITH WINDS GRADUALLY WEAKENING LATE
SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER REGION. WEAK ONSHORE FLOW
WILL BE EVIDENT LATE IN THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING EAST
OF REGION. ONSHORE FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN EARLY NEXT WEEK IN RESPONSE
TO FALLING PRESSURES OVER THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. 37

&&

.AVIATION...
STRONG STORMS CONTINUING TO DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
CWFA. WILL CONTINUE WITH TEMPO FOR CXO/UTS AND CLL WITH TSGR
FOR REST OF AFTERNOON. WEAKER CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE
SOUTHERN PORTIONS. WINDS SHOULD BECOME MORE WESTERLY IN DIRECTION
PRIOR TO FRONTAL PASSAGE. FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH CLL LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND APPROACH CENTRAL PORTIONS OF CWFA INCLUDING IAH BY
MID EVENING. CEILINGS RAPIDLY BREAKING UP ONCE FRONT PASSES THROUGH.
37

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      38  62  34  70  50 /  10   0   0   0   0
HOUSTON (IAH)              42  61  40  69  52 /  20   0   0   0   0
GALVESTON (GLS)            49  62  47  68  61 /  20   0   0   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM CDT SATURDAY
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY.

     SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO
     MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON
     BAY...MATAGORDA BAY.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM CDT SATURDAY
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
     FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS
     FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH
     ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

&&

DISCUSSION...38

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
433 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2009

GMZ330-335-350-355-370-375-TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-
227-235>238-281200-
AUSTIN-BRAZORIA-BRAZOS-BURLESON-CHAMBERS-COLORADO-FORT BEND-
GALVESTON-GALVESTON BAY-GRIMES-HARRIS-HOUSTON-JACKSON-LIBERTY-
MADISON-MATAGORDA-MATAGORDA BAY-MONTGOMERY-POLK-SAN JACINTO-
TRINITY-WALKER-WALLER-WASHINGTON-
WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM-WHARTON-
433 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

...SLIGHT CHANCE OF SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON...

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
TODAY AND TONIGHT AND WILL DRAG A DRYLINE AND COLD FRONT INTO THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THESE FEATURES WILL TRIGGER
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EAST OF A
BRENHAM TO FREEPORT LINE THIS AFTERNOON.

BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT THIS
EVENING AND TONIGHT. A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE REQUIRED FOR THE
COASTAL COUNTIES. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED FOR THE
COASTAL WATERS WHERE GUSTS TO GALE FORCE ARE POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
438 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0339 PM     HAIL             LAKE CONROE DAM         30.36N 95.56W
03/27/2009  M0.88 INCH       MONTGOMERY         TX   PUBLIC

            NICKEL SIZED HAIL AT LAKE CONROE.

0406 PM     HAIL             CONROE                  30.32N 95.47W
03/27/2009  M1.75 INCH       MONTGOMERY         TX   AMATEUR RADIO

            GOLFBALL SIZED HAIL IN CENTER OF CONROE.

0407 PM     HAIL             4 E CONROE              30.32N 95.40W
03/27/2009  M1.00 INCH       MONTGOMERY         TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

            QUARTER SIZED HAIL JUST EAST OF CONROE AT SOUTH LOOP 336
            AND FM 3083.

0415 PM     HAIL             CONROE                  30.32N 95.47W
03/27/2009  M0.50 INCH       MONTGOMERY         TX   BROADCAST MEDIA

            MARBLE SIZED HAIL IN NORTH SIDE OF CONROE

0422 PM     HAIL             5 W CONROE              30.32N 95.56W
03/27/2009  M2.75 INCH       MONTGOMERY         TX   AMATEUR RADIO

            BASEBALL SIZED HAIL ON FM 105...5 MILES WEST OF CONROE.

&&

DHELVY

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