Wind Advisory 17, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

000 
WWUS72 KGSP 081931
NPWGSP

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
231 PM EST TUE DEC 8 2009

...STRONG WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...

.A BELT OF STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF A POTENT STORM SYSTEM
WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE TODAY AND OVERSPREAD MOUNTAINS
THROUGH TONIGHT. MOUNTAIN PEAKS AND RIDGETOPS ACROSS WESTERN NORTH
CAROLINA WILL EXPERIENCE VERY STRONG WIND GUSTS AFTER MIDNIGHT. A
COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY MORNING.
BEHIND THE FRONT...WIND GUSTS WILL BE EVEN STRONGER ACROSS THE
HIGH ELEVATIONS. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SOME OF THE STRONG WIND
GUSTS TO MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT
ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

GAZ010-017-NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062>065-501-503-505-507-509-
090345-
/O.NEW.KGSP.HW.W.0004.091209T1100Z-091210T0000Z/
/O.CON.KGSP.WI.Y.0017.091208T2100Z-091209T1100Z/
RABUN-HABERSHAM-AVERY-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-
BUNCOMBE-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-
TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-BURKE MOUNTAINS-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-POLK MOUNTAINS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CLAYTON...CLARKESVILLE...NEWLAND...
SPRUCE PINE...CHEROKEE...WAYNESVILLE...ASHEVILLE...SYLVA...
FRANKLIN...BREVARD...HENDERSONVILLE...LAKE LURE
231 PM EST TUE DEC 8 2009

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY...
...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TO 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG HAS ISSUED
A HIGH WIND WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TO 7 PM EST
WEDNESDAY. A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST
WEDNESDAY. 

SOUTH WINDS WILL STEADILY INCREASE ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
OF THE NORTH CAROLINA AND NORTH GEORGIA MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING.
WIND GUSTS COULD INCREASE TO AS MUCH 40 TO 50 MPH ACROSS
ELEVATIONS ABOVE 4000 FEET AFTER MIDNIGHT. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT
GUSTS AS HIGH AS 60 MPH WILL OCCUR LATE TONIGHT. 

AFTER SUNRISE...THE STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL MIX DOWN INTO THE
VALLEYS AS WELL. OCCASIONAL WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH WILL BE
COMMON ACROSS ALL THE MOUNTAIN AREAS...WITH SEVERAL WIND GUSTS OF
60 MPH OR GREATER AT HIGH ELEVATIONS. WIND OF THIS MAGNITUDE IS
EXPECTED TO TOPPLE NUMEROUS TREES AND POWER LINES BECAUSE OF THE
WET SOIL FROM RECENT RAINFALL EVENTS.

THE STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET ON WEDNESDAY
EVENING. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS CAN MAKE DRIVING DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY FOR
HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES AND FOR ROADS THROUGH MOUNTAIN PASSES. USE
EXTRA CAUTION.

A HIGH WIND WARNING MEANS A HAZARDOUS HIGH WIND EVENT IS EXPECTED
OR OCCURRING. SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST 40 MPH OR GUSTS
OF 58 MPH OR MORE CAN LEAD TO PROPERTY DAMAGE.

&&

$$

GAZ018-026-028-029-NCZ035>037-056-057-068>072-082-502-504-506-508-
510-SCZ001>014-019-090345-
/O.NEW.KGSP.HW.A.0002.091209T1100Z-091210T0000Z/
STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-ALEXANDER-IREDELL-DAVIE-CATAWBA-
ROWAN-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-
GREATER CALDWELL-GREATER BURKE-EASTERN MCDOWELL-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-
GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-
ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...TOCCOA...HARTWELL...ELBERTON...
STATESVILLE...MOCKSVILLE...HICKORY...SALISBURY...SHELBY...
LINCOLNTON...GASTONIA...CHARLOTTE...CONCORD...MONROE...LENOIR...
MORGANTON...MARION...RUTHERFORD...COLUMBUS...GREENVILLE...
SPARTANBURG...GAFFNEY...ROCK HILL...ANDERSON...ABBEVILLE...
LAURENS...UNION...CHESTER...GREENWOOD
231 PM EST TUE DEC 8 2009

...HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG HAS ISSUED
A HIGH WIND WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING
THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING...ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT OF
WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA...UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA...AND EXTREME
NORTHEST GEORGIA. 

A STRONG COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION
WEDNESDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE...VERY STRONG WINDS ALOFT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION. IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT...WE SHOULD WARM UP
ENOUGH IN THE AFTERNOON TO BE ABLE TO MIX SOME OF THE STRONGER
WINDS DOWN TO THE SURFACE. WHILE SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED
TO REACH 40 MPH...A FEW GUSTS IN THE 50 TO 60 MPH ARE NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION. THE MAIN CONCERN IS THAT STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL
KNOCK DOWN NUMEROUS TREES THAT THE WET SOIL WILL NOT BE ABLE TO
HOLD IN THE GROUND. WIND GUSTS OF THIS MAGNITUDE COULD ALSO KNOCK
DOWN POWER LINES AND DAMAGE BUILDINGS UNDER CONSTRUCTION.

LATER GUIDANCE WILL DETERMINE IF THE WATCH IS UPGRADED TO A
WARNING OR REPLACED WITH AN ADVISORY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A HIGH WIND WATCH MEANS THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A HAZARDOUS
HIGH WIND EVENT. WIND GUSTS OF 58 MPH OR STRONGER MAY OCCUR.
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.

&&

$$

MOORE

000 
WWUS72 KGSP 090300
NPWGSP

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1000 PM EST TUE DEC 8 2009

...STRONG WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...

.A BELT OF STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF A POTENT STORM SYSTEM
WILL OVERSPREAD THE MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT. MOUNTAIN PEAKS AND
RIDGE TOPS ACROSS WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA WILL EXPERIENCE PERIODS OF 
VERY STRONG WIND GUSTS THROUGH SUNRISE. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP
ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY MORNING. BEHIND THE FRONT...WIND
GUSTS WILL BE EVEN STRONGER ACROSS THE HIGH ELEVATIONS. THE
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SOME OF THE STRONG WIND GUSTS TO MIX DOWN TO
THE SURFACE ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT ON WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.

GAZ010-017-NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062>065-501-503-505-507-509-
091100-
/O.CON.KGSP.HW.W.0004.091209T1100Z-091210T0000Z/
/O.CON.KGSP.WI.Y.0017.000000T0000Z-091209T1100Z/
RABUN-HABERSHAM-AVERY-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-
BUNCOMBE-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-
TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-BURKE MOUNTAINS-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-POLK MOUNTAINS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CLAYTON...CLARKESVILLE...NEWLAND...
SPRUCE PINE...CHEROKEE...WAYNESVILLE...ASHEVILLE...SYLVA...
FRANKLIN...BREVARD...HENDERSONVILLE...LAKE LURE
1000 PM EST TUE DEC 8 2009

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY...
...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TO 7 PM EST
WEDNESDAY...

A HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TO 7 PM EST
WEDNESDAY. A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST
WEDNESDAY. 

STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE HIGH
ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS. FREQUENT WIND GUSTS
OF 40 TO 50 MPH...WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS AS HIGH AS 60 MPH ARE
EXPECTED...MAINLY IN ELEVATIONS ABOVE 4000 FEET. ALTHOUGH WINDS ON
THE VALLEY FLOORS WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER...GENERALLY LESS THAN 15
MPH...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE AREA LATE TONIGHT
MAY BRIEFLY BRING LOCALIZED AREAS OF STRONG WINDS DOWN TO THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS.

AFTER SUNRISE...THE STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE MORE LIKELY TO MIX
DOWN INTO THE VALLEYS. OCCASIONAL WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH WILL
BE COMMON ACROSS ALL THE MOUNTAIN AREAS...WITH OCCASIONAL WIND
GUSTS OF 60 MPH OR GREATER CONTINUING AT HIGH ELEVATIONS. WINDS OF
THIS MAGNITUDE ARE EXPECTED TO TOPPLE NUMEROUS TREES AND POWER LINES
BECAUSE OF THE WET SOIL FROM RECENT RAINFALL EVENTS.

THE STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET ON WEDNESDAY
EVENING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS CAN MAKE DRIVING DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY FOR
HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES AND FOR ROADS THROUGH MOUNTAIN PASSES. USE
EXTRA CAUTION.

A HIGH WIND WARNING MEANS A HAZARDOUS HIGH WIND EVENT IS EXPECTED
OR OCCURRING. SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST 40 MPH OR GUSTS
OF 58 MPH OR MORE CAN LEAD TO PROPERTY DAMAGE AND POWER OUTAGES. 

&&

$$

GAZ018-026-028-029-NCZ035>037-056-057-068>072-082-502-504-506-508-
510-SCZ001>014-019-091100-
/O.CON.KGSP.HW.A.0002.091209T1100Z-091210T0000Z/
STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-ALEXANDER-IREDELL-DAVIE-CATAWBA-
ROWAN-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-
GREATER CALDWELL-GREATER BURKE-EASTERN MCDOWELL-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-
GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-
ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...TOCCOA...HARTWELL...ELBERTON...
STATESVILLE...MOCKSVILLE...HICKORY...SALISBURY...SHELBY...
LINCOLNTON...GASTONIA...CHARLOTTE...CONCORD...MONROE...LENOIR...
MORGANTON...MARION...RUTHERFORD...COLUMBUS...GREENVILLE...
SPARTANBURG...GAFFNEY...ROCK HILL...ANDERSON...ABBEVILLE...
LAURENS...UNION...CHESTER...GREENWOOD
1000 PM EST TUE DEC 8 2009

...HIGH WIND WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING...

A HIGH WIND WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. 

A STRONG COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION
WEDNESDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE...VERY STRONG WINDS ALOFT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION. IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT...WE SHOULD WARM UP
ENOUGH IN THE AFTERNOON TO BE ABLE TO MIX SOME OF THE STRONGER
WINDS DOWN TO THE SURFACE. WHILE SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED
TO REACH 40 MPH...A FEW GUSTS IN THE 50 TO 60 MPH ARE NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION. THE MAIN CONCERN IS THAT STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL
KNOCK DOWN NUMEROUS TREES DUE TO VERY MOIST SOIL FROM THE RECENT
WET WEATHER. 

LATER GUIDANCE WILL DETERMINE IF THE WATCH IS UPGRADED TO A
WARNING OR REPLACED WITH AN ADVISORY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A HIGH WIND WATCH MEANS THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A HAZARDOUS
HIGH WIND EVENT. WIND GUSTS OF 58 MPH OR STRONGER MAY OCCUR. WINDS
OF THIS MAGNITUDE CAN RESULT IN PROPERTY DAMAGE AND POWER OUTAGES. 
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.

&&

$$
LANE

000 
WWUS72 KGSP 090939
NPWGSP

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
439 AM EST WED DEC 9 2009

...STRONG WIND GUSTS LIKELY TODAY...

.VIRGOROUS WESTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT
TODAY...AND THE STRONG MOUNTAIN WIND GUSTS THIS MORNING WILL
DEVELOP EAST INTO THE PIEDMONT AS THE DAY WEARS ON. WINDS OF THIS
MAGNITUDE HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO UPROOT TREES...ESPECIALLY GIVEN
THE FACT THAT GROUND CONDITIONS ARE VERY MOIST. IN ADDITION...
POWER INTERRUPTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS GUSTY WINDS MAY TOPPLE
POWER POLES OR SNAP POWER LINES.

GAZ018-026-028-029-NCZ035>037-056-057-068>072-082-502-504-506-508-
510-SCZ001>014-019-091600-
/O.UPG.KGSP.HW.A.0002.091209T1100Z-091210T0000Z/
/O.EXB.KGSP.HW.W.0004.091209T0939Z-091210T0000Z/
STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-ALEXANDER-IREDELL-DAVIE-CATAWBA-
ROWAN-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-
GREATER CALDWELL-GREATER BURKE-EASTERN MCDOWELL-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-
GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-
ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...TOCCOA...HARTWELL...ELBERTON...
STATESVILLE...MOCKSVILLE...HICKORY...SALISBURY...SHELBY...
LINCOLNTON...GASTONIA...CHARLOTTE...CONCORD...MONROE...LENOIR...
MORGANTON...MARION...RUTHERFORD...COLUMBUS...GREENVILLE...
SPARTANBURG...GAFFNEY...ROCK HILL...ANDERSON...ABBEVILLE...
LAURENS...UNION...CHESTER...GREENWOOD
439 AM EST WED DEC 9 2009

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG HAS ISSUED
A HIGH WIND WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS
EVENING. 

INCREASINGLY WINDY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP THIS MORNING AS
SUSTAINED SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 MPH. AS THE DAY
WEARS ON SUSTAINED WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 30 MPH ARE LIKELY...
AND DURING THE AFTERNOON...GUSTS TO AROUND 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE.
TREES MAY BE UPROOTED AND POWER INTERRUPTIONS ARE POSSIBLE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A HIGH WIND WARNING MEANS A HAZARDOUS HIGH WIND EVENT IS EXPECTED
OR OCCURRING. SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST 40 MPH OR GUSTS
OF 58 MPH OR MORE CAN LEAD TO PROPERTY DAMAGE.

&&

$$

GAZ010-017-NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062>065-501-503-505-507-509-
091600-
/O.UPG.KGSP.WI.Y.0017.000000T0000Z-091209T1100Z/
/O.EXT.KGSP.HW.W.0004.091209T0939Z-091210T0000Z/
RABUN-HABERSHAM-AVERY-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-
BUNCOMBE-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-
TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-BURKE MOUNTAINS-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-POLK MOUNTAINS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CLAYTON...CLARKESVILLE...NEWLAND...
SPRUCE PINE...CHEROKEE...WAYNESVILLE...ASHEVILLE...SYLVA...
FRANKLIN...BREVARD...HENDERSONVILLE...LAKE LURE
439 AM EST WED DEC 9 2009

...HIGH WIND WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING...

THE HIGH WIND WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS
EVENING. 

GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST THIS MORNING. SUSTAINED
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 25 TO 35 MPH...WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 60 MPH.
TREES MAY BE UPROOTED AND POWER INTERRUPTIONS ARE POSSIBLE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A HIGH WIND WARNING MEANS A HAZARDOUS HIGH WIND EVENT IS EXPECTED
OR OCCURRING. SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST 40 MPH OR GUSTS
OF 58 MPH OR MORE CAN LEAD TO PROPERTY DAMAGE.

&&

$$

CSH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
250 AM EST TUE DEC 8 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
DEEP MOISTURE WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE WEST
TODAY AS A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ORGANIZES OVER THE PLAINS.
THIS LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT...
PUSHING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS ON WEDNESDAY.
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ON
THURSDAY AND REMAIN OVER THE MID ATLANTIC INTO THE WEEKEND AS A
WEAKER LOW PASSES JUST SOUTH OF OUR AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
OVERALL...THE MAGNITUDE AND TIMING OF THE STRENGTHENING WAA PATTERN
ATOP DEVELOPING SFC WEDGE REMAINS ON TRACK FOR TODAY. EXPECTING
STRATIFORM RAINFALL TO BLOSSOM REGIONWIDE...ESPECIALLY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED LLVL UPGLIDE FLOW. 21
UTC SREF DEPICTS 60+KT LLVL JET TO LIFT NORTH INTO THE TENN VALLEY
LATER TODAY AND STOUT WIND GUSTS COULD START TO AFFECT THE NC
HIGH TERRAIN BY LATE AFTERNOON. IT IS INTERESTING TO NOTE THE
COOLING IN RESPONSE TO THE UPSLOPE FLOW ALONG THE NW NC
ESCARPMENT...AND THE NAM/S FCST OF A POCKET OF 32 DEG F WET BULB
TEMPS. IT IS ALSO INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT THE 21 UTC SREF PLUME
DIAGRAMS FOR BOONE DEPICT NOT ONE FZRA MEMBER. THE NAM/S FCST OF
PARTIAL THICKNESS VALUES ARE HOVERING WITHIN THE WARM SIDE
OF THE FZRA BOX ON THE UNIVERSAL NOMOGRAM ANYWAY...SO THE
PROBABILITY ANY NOTABLE FZRA THREAT ACRS THIS AREA IS A VERY LOW
PROBABILITY SOLUTION.

AFOREMENTIONED 60+ KT LLVL JET WILL TRANSLATE ENE ACRS THE CWFA
TONIGHT. Q-VECTOR ANALYSIS INDICATES THE STRONGEST DEEP FORCING WILL
BYPASS THE CWFA TO OUR NW...BUT COINCIDENT WITH THE LIFT RESULTING
FROM THE STOUT LLVL WAA FLOW...PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP. MODEL CONSENSUS QPF...A BROAD MAXIMA ALONG AND EAST/SOUTH
OF THE BLUE RIDGE INDICATES THAT THE CHANCES FOR EXCESSIVE RAIN WILL
BE LIMITED. THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER ELEVATION 60 KT WIND GUSTS
IS INCREASING...BUT GIVEN OVERALL CROSS VALLEY FLOW...THERE EXISTS
JUST A LOW PROBABILITY OF STRONG GUSTS TRANSLATING TO THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS. THERE DOES EXIST THE POTENTIAL FOR DEEP CONVECTIVE
ELEMENTS TO AID IN DOWNWARD TRANSPORT OF STRONGER WIND GUSTS...
BUT AT THIS POINT...THIS THREAT IS UNCERTAIN. AT THIS JUNCTURE
WILL ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE NC/GA MTNS.

WILL PLAN ON CARRYING EMBEDDED TSTM CHANCE WHERE NAM IS PROGGING
WEAK DESTABILIZATION...AS PER 0-3KM MUCAPE FIELD...ENCROACHING
FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE EVENING...AND PERHAPS POOLING ALONG
NWWD MOVING WEDGE BOUNDARY ACRS THE LOWER PIEDMONT. A LOW END
SVR HAIL EXISTS FOR THE NC MTNS TONIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH ELEVATED
TSTMS...ALTHOUGH THE MTNS ARE INCREASINGLY REMOVED FROM THE
BETTER LAPSE RATES AND COOL MID-LVL TEMPS NEARER DEEP MID/UPPER
LVL CYCLONE. IT IS ALSO UNCERTAIN JUST HOW FAR NW WEAK SFC BASED
CAPE DEVELOPS TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF IMPRESSIVE VERTICAL SHEAR TO
PROMOTE AN ENHANCED CONVECTIVE WIND DAMAGE THREAT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 240 AM TUESDAY...BY 12 UTC WED THE HEART OF A 70KT LLVL JET IS
PROGGED BY THE NAM AND GFS TO HAVE SHIFTED EAST OF THE FA...WITH
LLVL COLD ADVECTION BEGINNING. THIS WILL PUT AN END TO PCPN BY THE
MID MORNING HOURS. THE NAM ACTUALLY HOLDS ON TO WEAK IN SITU COLD
AIR DAMMING MOST OF THE DAY IN A NARROW AXIS ALONG AND E OF
INTERSTATE 85. AS THE LLVL FLOW STAYS OUT OF THE SW...THERE IS
LIMITED DOWNSLOPE TO SCOUR THE CAD...SO THIS MAKES SOME SENSE. I
STILL THINK IT/S A LITTLE OVERDONE AND I HAVE ALL OF THE FOOTHILLS
AND PIEDMONT MIXING OUT BY EARLY AFTN. MODEL SOUNDINGS DON/T LOOK
GOOD AT ALL FOR CONVECTION AS A STRONG MID LEVEL INVERSION WILL
ALREADY BE SETTING UP AFTER 12 UTC. I KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
CONVECTION OVER THE EXTREME SOUTH...BUT WITH THE VEERING FLOW THERE
IS VERY LITTLE CHANCE OF ANY SEVERE STORMS THIS FAR WEST.

WHILE THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE NORTHEAST OF THE REGION...THE
MIXED LAYER WILL BECOME FAIRLY DEEP BY THE AFTN HOURS. GFS BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS SHOW 58 KTS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER AT GSP...AND
UPPER 40 KT WINDS MUCH LOWER IN THE SOUNDING. IF THIS WERE TO
VERIFY...WIND GUSTS OF 40 KTS OR MORE WOULD AFFECT A GOOD BIT OF THE
UPSTATE...NE GA AND THE SRN NC PIEDMONT. THE MTNS IN THESE
SITUATIONS ARE ACTUALLY LESS LIKELY TO SEE STRONG WINDS AS THE
MIXING ISN/T AS DEEP AND THE GRADIENT TENDS TO BE WEAKER WITH WSW
ORIENTED FLOW THAN IT IS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE HIGH TERRAIN. THE NAM
SOUNDINGS ARE NOT AS IMPRESSIVE...BUT SOME OF THIS HAS TO DO WITH
IT/S SHALLOWER MIXED LAYER. WITH WET GROUND...GFS-LIKE WINDS WOULD
TOPPLE NUMEROUS TREES ACROSS THE REGION...POSSIBLY RESULTING IN AN
EVENT WITH A HIGH ENOUGH IMPACT FOR A HIGH WIND WARNING. I WON/T GO
SO FAR AS TO ISSUE A HIGH WIND WATCH OWING TO THE MORE PESSIMISTIC
NAM...BUT IT/S SOMETHING TO WATCH CLOSELY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE REGION STARTING WED
NIGHT. THIS IS A COLD HIGH WITH IT/S ORIGIN OVER SRN SASKATCHEWAN
WHERE TEMPS RIGHT NOW ARE -20 TO -30 DEG. I SUSPECT THAT MAX TEMPS
THU AND FRI ARE TOO WARM IN THE MOS. I DID SHAVE A COUPLE
DEGREES...BUT DIDN/T STRAY MUCH. FRIDAY MORNING...IN
PARTICULAR...COULD BE A COLD ONE OVER THE REGION AS THE CENTER OF
THE HIGH WILL BE OVERHEAD. WITH THE COLD AIR WILL COME LOW
DEWPOINTS. I/VE STAYED CLOSE TO THE MAV MOS...BUT ONCE AGAIN...AS WE
WILL SEE SOME WEAK DOWNSLOPE ON THU AS THE HIGH CROSSES THE
MTNS...DEWPOINTS COULD VERIFY QUITE A BIT LOWER.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 200 AM TUESDAY...STARTING AT 00Z SATURDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT TONIGHT THAN LAST NIGHT BUT STILL
HAVE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN TIMING.  AT LEAST THE GFS AND ECMWF
BOTH AGREE ON THE CENTER OF THE HIGH OVER THE MID ATLANTIC INITIALLY
FRIDAY NIGHT AND GRADUALLY MOVING OUT OVER THE ATLANTIC.  THE GFS
STILL MOVES THE LOW FASTER FROM THE NORTHERN GULF COAST TO THE
GEORGIA/SOUTH CAROLINA COAST.  BOTH TAKE THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE
ACROSS AREAS SOUTH OF THE MOUNTAINS.  THE INFLUENCE OF THE HIGH
RIDGING SOUTHWEST FROM THE VIRGINIA COAST WILL CREATE TEMPERATURE
PROFILES SUITABLE FOR MIXED WINTRY PRECIP.  IF THIS SYSTEM WERE TO
MOVE SLIGHTLY FARTHER SOUTH WE WOULD GET EVEN LESS PRECIP.  SEEING
THAT THERE IS VERY LITTLE NOTICEABLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS MODEL
RUNS...CANNOT SEE A REASON TO CHANGE MUCH AT ALL IN THE GRID.  WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER FROM LATE SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY.  THE VERY END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD HAS CONTRASTING
SOLUTIONS WITH THE GFS TAKING A SYSTEM SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST
AREA...JUST SKIRTING OUR SOUTHERN ZONES.  THE ECMWF HAS A DEVELOPING
LOW OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE
HEADED ALMOST STRAIGHT AT US FOR TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT...IT REMAINS INCONCLUSIVE WHETHER INCREASING MID-LVL CLOUDS
WILL PREVENT A PERIOD OF MVFR VSBY EARLY THIS MORNING...AND WILL
LEAVE TEMPO 5SM AS IS. BOTH THE 00 UTC GFS AND NAM COMMENCE -RA
AT 18 UTC AND WILL CONTINUE TO FCST ONSET AT THAT TIME WITH NE
WINDS INCREASING TO ABT 8 KTS. FROM MID-AFTERNOON THROUGH THE END OF
THE PERIOD...EXPECTED INCREASINGLY STEADY AND HEAVY RAIN AS FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS PROGRESS TO IFR.

ELSEWHERE ACRS THE...VFR LVL CIGS WILL MIX WITH LOCALIZED MVFR
VSBYS EARLY THIS MORNING BEFORE RAIN OVERSPREADS THE REGION FROM
LATE MORNING ONWARD. FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS TO BECOME INCREASINGLY
COMMON AS THE DAY WEARS ON...WITH WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS BY
TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD RA AND CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS WILL LINGER
ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP EAST OF THE
AREA BY MID-WEDNESDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY GUSTY WEST-SOUTHWEST
WINDS. VFR EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. A GULF COAST STORM
SYSTEM COULD SPREAD LIGHT MIXED PRECIP INTO THE REGION FRI NIGHT AND
SATURDAY.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY
     FOR GAZ010-017.
NC...WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY
     FOR NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062>065-501-503-505-507-509.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...BSH
NEAR TERM...CSH
SHORT TERM...MCAVOY
LONG TERM...DEO
AVIATION...CSH/JDL

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
336 PM EST MON DEC 7 2009

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-082045-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-ALEXANDER-
IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-
ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-
GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-
ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
336 PM EST MON DEC 7 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

RAIN WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING VIGOROUS STORM SYSTEM. SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS AS TO
HOW MUCH RAIN WILL FALL...BUT AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM
ONE TO TWO INCHES BY THE TIME THE RAIN ENDS WEDNESDAY ACROSS MOST
OF THE WESTERN CAROLINAS. EXTREME NORTHEAST GEORGIA...UPSTATE
SOUTH CAROLINA WEST OF ANDERSON AND CLEMSON...AND THE SOUTHERN
MOUNTAINS OF NORTH CAROLINA COULD SEE TWO TO THREE INCHES OF RAIN.
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE OVER UPSLOPE AREAS. THIS
AMOUNT OF RAIN COULD CAUSE SOME FLOODING PROBLEMS BECAUSE STREAMS
REMAIN RELATIVELY HIGH FROM PREVIOUS RAINFALL. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PART OF THE AREA FOR TUESDAY NIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY MORNING. WHILE THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE FAIRLY STABLE
ACROSS THE REGION...THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE THAT AREAS SOUTH OF A
WARM FRONT COULD SEE SEVERE STORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND
POSSIBLY A FEW...BRIEF TORNADOES. BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...THE
WARM FRONT MAY LIFT AS FAR NORTH AS A HARTWELL TO LAURENS TO ROCK
HILL LINE. THIS WILL CONFINE THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT TO AREAS
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 85.

STRONG WIND GUSTS COMBINED WITH HEAVY RAIN ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS MAY RESULT IN TOPPLED TREES AND POWER LINES TUESDAY
NIGHT. WINDY CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF THE FOOTHILLS
AND PIEDMONT ON WEDNESDAY...POSSIBLY TOPPLING MORE TREES. A WIND
ADVISORY MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PART OR ALL OF THE AREA FOR TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL AFFECT THE WESTERN CAROLINAS
OVER THE WEEKEND. ALTHOUGH DETAILS REMAIN SKETCHY...THERE IS THE
POSSIBILITY OF A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION ON SATURDAY DEPENDING
ON THE TRACK OF THE LOW AND THE DEGREE OF COLD AIR ACROSS THE
REGION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

MOORE