High Wind Watch 2, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

Elbert County, GA, Franklin County, GA, Hart County, GA, Stephens County, GA, Alexander County, NC, Burke County, NC, Cabarrus County, NC, Caldwell County, NC, Catawba County, NC, Cleveland County, NC, Davie County, NC, Gaston County, NC, Iredell County, NC, Lincoln County, NC, McDowell County, NC, Mecklenburg County, NC, Polk County, NC, Rowan County, NC, Rutherford County, NC, Union County, NC, Abbeville County, SC, Anderson County, SC, Cherokee County, SC, Chester County, SC, Greenwood County, SC, Laurens County, SC, Union County, SC, York County, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1256 PM EST TUE DEC 8 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
DEEP MOISTURE WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE WEST
TODAY AS A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ORGANIZES OVER THE PLAINS.
THIS LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT...
PUSHING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS ON WEDNESDAY.
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ON
THURSDAY AND REMAIN OVER THE MID ATLANTIC INTO THE WEEKEND AS A
WEAKER LOW PASSES JUST SOUTH OF OUR AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS RIDGED ALONG THE EAST FACING SLOPES OF THE
APPALACHIANS TODAY. FLOW AROUND THE LOW WILL STEADILY STRENGTHEN
OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. DEEP ISENTROPIC LIFT IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON. AT 16Z...THE
REGION OF ISENTROPIC LIFT WAS LOCATED ACROSS CENTRAL AND NE GA AND
CORRESPONDED WITH A REGION OF WIDESPREAD STRATIFORM RA. I WILL KEEP
CATE POPS ACROSS THE CWA BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN STEADY OR SLOWLY FALLING THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY. THE
COOLEST TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN ALONG THE EASTERN UPSLOPE AREAS
OF THE NRN MTNS...FAVORING VALUES IN THE 33-35 DEGREE RANGE. TEMPS
MAY START TO RISE OVERNIGHT AS RETURN FLOW STRENGTHENS AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT. I WILL INCLUDE NON DIURNAL TEMPS WITH THIS UPDATE.

AFOREMENTIONED 60+ KT LLVL JET WILL TRANSLATE ENE ACRS THE CWFA
TONIGHT. Q-VECTOR ANALYSIS INDICATES THE STRONGEST DEEP FORCING WILL
BYPASS THE CWFA TO OUR NW...BUT COINCIDENT WITH THE LIFT RESULTING
FROM THE STOUT LLVL WAA FLOW...PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP. MODEL CONSENSUS QPF...A BROAD MAXIMA ALONG AND EAST/SOUTH
OF THE BLUE RIDGE INDICATES THAT THE CHANCES FOR EXCESSIVE RAIN WILL
BE LIMITED. THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER ELEVATION 60 KT WIND GUSTS
IS INCREASING...BUT GIVEN OVERALL CROSS VALLEY FLOW...THERE EXISTS
JUST A LOW PROBABILITY OF STRONG GUSTS TRANSLATING TO THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS. THERE DOES EXIST THE POTENTIAL FOR DEEP CONVECTIVE
ELEMENTS TO AID IN DOWNWARD TRANSPORT OF STRONGER WIND GUSTS...
BUT AT THIS POINT...THIS THREAT IS UNCERTAIN. AT THIS JUNCTURE
WILL ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE NC/GA MTNS.

WILL PLAN ON CARRYING EMBEDDED TSTM CHANCE WHERE NAM IS PROGGING
WEAK DESTABILIZATION...AS PER 0-3KM MUCAPE FIELD...ENCROACHING
FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE EVENING...AND PERHAPS POOLING ALONG
NWWD MOVING WEDGE BOUNDARY ACRS THE LOWER PIEDMONT. A LOW END
SVR HAIL EXISTS FOR THE NC MTNS TONIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH ELEVATED
TSTMS...ALTHOUGH THE MTNS ARE INCREASINGLY REMOVED FROM THE
BETTER LAPSE RATES AND COOL MID-LVL TEMPS NEARER DEEP MID/UPPER
LVL CYCLONE. IT IS ALSO UNCERTAIN JUST HOW FAR NW WEAK SFC BASED
CAPE DEVELOPS TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF IMPRESSIVE VERTICAL SHEAR TO
PROMOTE AN ENHANCED CONVECTIVE WIND DAMAGE THREAT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 240 AM TUESDAY...BY 12 UTC WED THE HEART OF A 70KT LLVL JET IS
PROGGED BY THE NAM AND GFS TO HAVE SHIFTED EAST OF THE FA...WITH
LLVL COLD ADVECTION BEGINNING. THIS WILL PUT AN END TO PCPN BY THE
MID MORNING HOURS. THE NAM ACTUALLY HOLDS ON TO WEAK IN SITU COLD
AIR DAMMING MOST OF THE DAY IN A NARROW AXIS ALONG AND E OF
INTERSTATE 85. AS THE LLVL FLOW STAYS OUT OF THE SW...THERE IS
LIMITED DOWNSLOPE TO SCOUR THE CAD...SO THIS MAKES SOME SENSE. I
STILL THINK IT/S A LITTLE OVERDONE AND I HAVE ALL OF THE FOOTHILLS
AND PIEDMONT MIXING OUT BY EARLY AFTN. MODEL SOUNDINGS DON/T LOOK
GOOD AT ALL FOR CONVECTION AS A STRONG MID LEVEL INVERSION WILL
ALREADY BE SETTING UP AFTER 12 UTC. I KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
CONVECTION OVER THE EXTREME SOUTH...BUT WITH THE VEERING FLOW THERE
IS VERY LITTLE CHANCE OF ANY SEVERE STORMS THIS FAR WEST.

WHILE THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE NORTHEAST OF THE REGION...THE
MIXED LAYER WILL BECOME FAIRLY DEEP BY THE AFTN HOURS. GFS BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS SHOW 58 KTS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER AT GSP...AND
UPPER 40 KT WINDS MUCH LOWER IN THE SOUNDING. IF THIS WERE TO
VERIFY...WIND GUSTS OF 40 KTS OR MORE WOULD AFFECT A GOOD BIT OF THE
UPSTATE...NE GA AND THE SRN NC PIEDMONT. THE MTNS IN THESE
SITUATIONS ARE ACTUALLY LESS LIKELY TO SEE STRONG WINDS AS THE
MIXING ISN/T AS DEEP AND THE GRADIENT TENDS TO BE WEAKER WITH WSW
ORIENTED FLOW THAN IT IS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE HIGH TERRAIN. THE NAM
SOUNDINGS ARE NOT AS IMPRESSIVE...BUT SOME OF THIS HAS TO DO WITH
IT/S SHALLOWER MIXED LAYER. WITH WET GROUND...GFS-LIKE WINDS WOULD
TOPPLE NUMEROUS TREES ACROSS THE REGION...POSSIBLY RESULTING IN AN
EVENT WITH A HIGH ENOUGH IMPACT FOR A HIGH WIND WARNING. I WON/T GO
SO FAR AS TO ISSUE A HIGH WIND WATCH OWING TO THE MORE PESSIMISTIC
NAM...BUT IT/S SOMETHING TO WATCH CLOSELY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE REGION STARTING WED
NIGHT. THIS IS A COLD HIGH WITH IT/S ORIGIN OVER SRN SASKATCHEWAN
WHERE TEMPS RIGHT NOW ARE -20 TO -30 DEG. I SUSPECT THAT MAX TEMPS
THU AND FRI ARE TOO WARM IN THE MOS. I DID SHAVE A COUPLE
DEGREES...BUT DIDN/T STRAY MUCH. FRIDAY MORNING...IN
PARTICULAR...COULD BE A COLD ONE OVER THE REGION AS THE CENTER OF
THE HIGH WILL BE OVERHEAD. WITH THE COLD AIR WILL COME LOW
DEWPOINTS. I/VE STAYED CLOSE TO THE MAV MOS...BUT ONCE AGAIN...AS WE
WILL SEE SOME WEAK DOWNSLOPE ON THU AS THE HIGH CROSSES THE
MTNS...DEWPOINTS COULD VERIFY QUITE A BIT LOWER.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 200 AM TUESDAY...STARTING AT 00Z SATURDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT TONIGHT THAN LAST NIGHT BUT STILL
HAVE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN TIMING.  AT LEAST THE GFS AND ECMWF
BOTH AGREE ON THE CENTER OF THE HIGH OVER THE MID ATLANTIC INITIALLY
FRIDAY NIGHT AND GRADUALLY MOVING OUT OVER THE ATLANTIC.  THE GFS
STILL MOVES THE LOW FASTER FROM THE NORTHERN GULF COAST TO THE
GEORGIA/SOUTH CAROLINA COAST.  BOTH TAKE THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE
ACROSS AREAS SOUTH OF THE MOUNTAINS.  THE INFLUENCE OF THE HIGH
RIDGING SOUTHWEST FROM THE VIRGINIA COAST WILL CREATE TEMPERATURE
PROFILES SUITABLE FOR MIXED WINTRY PRECIP.  IF THIS SYSTEM WERE TO
MOVE SLIGHTLY FARTHER SOUTH WE WOULD GET EVEN LESS PRECIP.  SEEING
THAT THERE IS VERY LITTLE NOTICEABLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS MODEL
RUNS...CANNOT SEE A REASON TO CHANGE MUCH AT ALL IN THE GRID.  WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER FROM LATE SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY.  THE VERY END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD HAS CONTRASTING
SOLUTIONS WITH THE GFS TAKING A SYSTEM SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST
AREA...JUST SKIRTING OUR SOUTHERN ZONES.  THE ECMWF HAS A DEVELOPING
LOW OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE
HEADED ALMOST STRAIGHT AT US FOR TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...CAD WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE WESTERN
CAROLINAS THROUGH MOST OF TONIGHT. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL REMAIN
BETWEEN 7-12 KTS ACROSS THE REGION UNTIL 10Z-12Z. CEILINGS WILL
LOWER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...REACHING LIFR BETWEEN 4Z-6Z.
CEILINGS WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE AROUND 12Z. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THAT A LLVL JET WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS
LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDS MORNING...LIKELY CREATING A PERIOD OF LLWS
BETWEEN 12Z-15Z. AFTER SUNRISE...SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP IN THE
WAKE OF A PASSING COLD FRONT. MOMENTUM TRANSFER WITHIN MIXING LAYER
WILL YIELD GUSTS INTO THE 20-30 KTS BY 15Z. CEILINGS AND VIS WILL
RAPIDLY IMPROVE WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT.

OUTLOOK... VFR EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. A GULF COAST STORM
SYSTEM COULD SPREAD LIGHT MIXED PRECIP INTO THE REGION FRI NIGHT AND
SATURDAY.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY
     FOR GAZ010-017.
NC...WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY
     FOR NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062>065-501-503-505-507-509.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...BSH
NEAR TERM...NED/CSH
SHORT TERM...MCAVOY
LONG TERM...DEO
AVIATION...NED

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
516 AM EST TUE DEC 8 2009

GAZ018-026-028-029-NCZ035>037-056-057-068>072-082-502-504-506-508-
510-SCZ001>014-019-091030-
STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-ALEXANDER-IREDELL-DAVIE-CATAWBA-ROWAN-
CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-
GREATER CALDWELL-GREATER BURKE-EASTERN MCDOWELL-GREATER RUTHERFORD-
EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-
GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-
CHEROKEE-YORK-ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
516 AM EST TUE DEC 8 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

RAIN WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING VIGOROUS STORM SYSTEM. RAIN AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO
RANGE FROM ONE TO TWO INCHES BY THE TIME THE PRECIPITATION ENDS
WEDNESDAY. THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED OVER EXTREME
NORTHEAST GEORGIA...UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA WEST OF ANDERSON AND
CLEMSON...AND THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS OF NORTH CAROLINA. WIDESPREAD
FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED...THOUGH ISOLATED FLOODING IS POSSIBLE
AS STREAM AND LAKE LEVELS ARE ALREADY RUNNING HIGH.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT OVER THE WESTERN
CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA. MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT
WILL FORM NORTH OF A WARM FRONT AND WILL HAVE LITTLE CHANCE OF
PRODUCING SEVERE WEATHER. HOWEVER...LATE TONIGHT THAT FRONT MAY
MOVE INTO THE EXTREME SOUTHERN PART OF THE UPSTATE. IF THAT WERE TO
OCCUR...AREAS FROM ELBERTON TO LAURENS AND CHESTER COULD SEE
DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT
OF THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA ON WEDNESDAY. WIND
GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON. AS THE GROUND
WILL BE WET FROM THE PREVIOUS NIGHTS RAIN...QUITE A FEW TREES
COULD BE BLOWN DOWN BY THE GUSTY WINDS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO FORWARD ANY REPORTS OF LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...TORNADOES OR FLASH FLOODING TO OUR OFFICE.

GAZ010-017-NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062>065-501-503-505-507-509-091030-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-AVERY-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-
GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
HENDERSON-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-BURKE MOUNTAINS-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-
RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-POLK MOUNTAINS-
516 AM EST TUE DEC 8 2009

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM EST
WEDNESDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA AND WESTERN
NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WIND ADVISORY.

RAIN WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING VIGOROUS STORM SYSTEM. RAIN AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO
RANGE FROM ONE TO TWO INCHES BY THE TIME THE PRECIPITATION ENDS
WEDNESDAY. THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED OVER EXTREME
NORTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS OF NORTH CAROLINA.
WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED...HOWEVER FLOODING IS POSSIBLE
AS STREAM AND LAKE LEVELS ARE ALREADY RUNNING HIGH.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF
NORTH CAROLINA AND EXTREME NORTHEAST GEORGIA. WHILE A WIND
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR GRADIENT WINDS...ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT
FORM COULD ENHANCE THE DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL...AND POSSIBLY BRING
STRONG WINDS DOWN INTO THE VALLEYS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

WINDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO GUST UP TO 45 MPH AT TIMES. AS THE GROUND WILL BE
NEARLY SATURATED FROM THE PREVIOUS NIGHTS RAIN...QUITE A FEW TREES
COULD FALL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO FORWARD ANY REPORTS OF LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...TORNADOES OR FLASH FLOODING TO OUR OFFICE.

MCAVOY