Severe Thunderstorm Warning 384, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
241 PM EDT WED SEP 9 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
THE WEATHER WILL REMAIN A UNSETTLED THROUGH THURSDAY WITH LOTS OF
MOISTURE OVER THE AREA.   A STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...BEFORE MOISTURE INCREASES AGAIN BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN AROUND UPPER LOW OVER THE
VIRGINIAS TONIGHT THRU THU. ALTHO PVA IS SOMEWHAT CHANNELED...THIS
HAS COOLED H5 TEMPS OVER AREA WHICH COMBINED WITH SFC HEATING WILL
BRING LAPSE RATES UP TO AROUND 6-6.5 DEG/KM THIS AFTN-EARLY EVE.
CAPE VALUES TO 1-2K J/KG ARE EXPECTED...MAINLY OVER THE MTNS AND THE
SW CWA. THERE IS ALSO SOME SHEAR...ESP OVER THE MTNS...BUT NOT
ENOUGH TO CONSIDER SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT ATTM. COOL NE FLOW IN LOW
LVLS WILL TEND TO LIMIT INSTABILITY SOMEWHAT IN THE NE ZONES BUT
ONLY SLIGHTLY. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW MOIST PROFILES THRU THE COLUMN
SO EXPECT MAIN THREAT TO CONT TO BE LARGE HAIL INTO THIS EVE. WENT
WITH CAT POPS OVER N MTNS...TAPERING TO LIKELY REST OF MTNS...TO
SOLID CHC ELSEWHERE. CONVECTION SHOULD TAPER OFF MID-LATE EVE BUT
HELD ON TO CHC POPS UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT...CHC TO SLIGHT CHC
OVERNIGHT. MRNG LOWS WILL COOL TO NEAR AVG. UPPER LOW REMAINS NNE OF
CWA THU WITH SHEARED VORT LOBES MOVG OVER AREA TO PROVIDE AT LEAST
WEAK FORCING ALOFT. WEAK SFC RIDGE AND COOL NE LOW LVL FLOW SHD HELP
SUPPRESS DEEPER CONVECTION OVER NE ZONES BUT CWA STILL WARRANTS CHC
SHWRS/TSTMS IN THE AFTN...SOLID CHC MTNS AND SW ZONES. HIGHS THU
WILL BE A CAT OR TWO BELOW AVG.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM WEDNESDAY...CLOSED H5 LOW CONTINUES TO LINGER OVER THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS/ATLANTIC REGION ON FRIDAY. AT THE SFC...WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO NOSE NE TO SW ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH
THE DAY. CAPE VALUES AND LLVL LAPSE RATES APPEAR VERY WEAK THROUGH
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. I WILL FORECAST SCT MTN AND FOOTHILLS SHRA/TSRA
WILL ISO COVERAGE OVER THE PIEDMONT. COOL THICKNESSES AND PERSISTENT
SKY COVER WILL LIKELY RESULT IN ANOTHER AFTERNOON OF SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL HIGHS.

ON SATURDAY...NAM AND GFS INDICATES THAT THE H5 LOW CENTER WILL
SHIFT EAST...SWINGING THE TROF AXIS OVER THE CWA DURING THE
AFTERNOON. MODELS INDICATE A WEAK INVERSION AROUND H6 BY
21Z...CAPPING WEAK LLVL INSTABILITY. IN ADDITION...PROFILES WILL
LIKELY DRY FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. I WILL
FORECAST ONLY A SCHC FOR SHRA...FAVORING THE MTNS. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD RESPOND TO THE DEPARTING LOW AN INCREASE INSOLATION...I
WILL FORECAST HIGH TEMPS 2-4 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM WEDNESDAY...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS INDICATE THAT A PLUME OF MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE DEEP
SOUTH ASSOCIATED WITH A STATIONARY FRONT AND A H5 LOW OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE CWA IS
ANTICIPATED TO KEEP THE DEEP MOISTURE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE UPPER
SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT A H6
INVERSION WILL REMAIN OVER CWA THROUGH THE MID WEEK. I WILL FORECAST
SCT AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHRA/TSRA OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE
CWA EACH DAY...POP REMAINING THE LOWEST ALONG THE I-77 CORRIDOR.
DAILY TEMPERATURES SHOULD VERIFY WITHIN A COUPLE OF DEGREES OF
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...AS SHORTWAVE MOVES IN FROM THE NW EXPECT AT
LEAST SCT SHWRS/TSTMS TO SPREAD FROM MTNS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.
CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS LIKELY IN HEAVIER SHWRS. WINDS SHOULD BE NE TO
E AT LESS THAN 10 KTS OUTSIDE SHOWERS...S AT KAVL. CHC POPS CONT
OVERNIGHT...WHILE SLIGHT CHANCE TSTMS CONT UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT.
EXPECT EARLY MRNG MVFR...PSBL IFR...CIG RESTRICTIONS WITH IFR
CIG/VSBY AT KAVL...IMPROVING TO VFR AROUND NOON.

OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTN-EVE SHWRS/TSTMS CONTINUES THRU FRI.
MRNG CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS PSBL...ESPCLY MTN VALLEYS.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...RB
SHORT TERM...NED
LONG TERM...NED
AVIATION...RB

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
303 PM EDT WED SEP 09 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0251 PM     HAIL             5 ENE HENDERSONVILLE    35.35N 82.38W
09/09/2009  E1.00 INCH       HENDERSON          NC   PUBLIC

            PUBLIC REPORT OF ONE INCH HAIL NEAR EDNEYVILLE.

&&

STUREY

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
326 PM EDT WED SEP 9 2009

GAZ010-NCZ062-092015-
MACON-RABUN-
326 PM EDT WED SEP 9 2009

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CENTRAL RABUN AND SOUTHERN MACON
COUNTIES THROUGH 415 PM EDT...

AT 325 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 8 MILES SOUTHEAST OF NANTAHALA LAKE...OR 13 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF FRANKLIN...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO MOUNTAIN
  CITY...DILLARD AND RAINBOW SPRINGS.

PEA SIZE HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

INTENSE LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. IF OUTDOORS...STAY
AWAY FROM ISOLATED HIGH OBJECTS SUCH AS TREES. MOVE INDOORS IF
POSSIBLE. WHEN INDOORS...STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND DOORS AND AVOID
USING TELEPHONES UNLESS IT IS AN EMERGENCY. TRY TO UNPLUG UNNECESSARY
ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES BEFORE THE THUNDERSTORM APPROACHES.

MCAVOY