Severe Thunderstorm Warning 372, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
927 PM EDT TUE SEP 8 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
STILL EXPECTING LITTLE CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE REST
OF THE WEEK AS WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE LINGERS ACROSS THE REGION.
TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL AFFECT MOSTLY THE MOUNTAINS WHERE THE BEST
DAILY SHOWER CHANCES WILL REMAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
INSTABILITY WAS HIGHER THAN EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...
CONVECTION WAS ENHANCED BY SHORT WAVE/UPPER JET MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA AROUND THE UPPER LOW TO OUR NW. CURRENT CONVECTION OVER THE
UPSTATE WILL DIMINISH BY MIDNIGHT. HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL ISOLATED
CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MTNS. THIS TOO SHOULD DISSIPATE
SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF DENSE MTN VALLEY FOG
TONIGHT...WITH PATCHY LIGHT FOG ELSEWHERE. LOOKS LIKE LOW CLOUDS
SHOULD MOVE WEST INTO THE NC PIEDMONT AGAIN TOWARD MORNING...WITH
MAINLY CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS ELSEWHERE. MADE ONLY MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO OVERNIGHT LOWS.

DEEPER MOISTURE MOVES IN WED AND WITH CONT UPPER FORCING...EXPECT
INCRSNG CHC SHWRS/TSTMS ACROSS THE CWA THRU THE DAY WITH BEST CHC
OVER MTNS IN THE AFTN. MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE NEAR AVG.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 220 PM TUESDAY...THE 12Z RUN OF THE NAM AND GFS REMAIN IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE POSITION OF THE NEARLY STATIONARY H5 LOW OVER THE
MID APPALACHIANS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE
THAT WEAK DISTURBANCES CARRIED BY THE MID LEVEL CIRCULATION MAY PASS
OVER THE CWA THROUGH THE SHORT RANGE PERIOD. HOWEVER...FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE VERY SHALLOW LAPSE RATES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH
CAPE VALUES GENERALLY LESS THAN 100 J/KG. AT THE SFC...PRESSURE
FEATURES WILL REMAIN WEAK...FAVORING SLIGHT RIDGING FROM THE NORTH.
SHALLOW ISENTROPIC LIFT...WEAK INSTABILITY...AND POSSIBLE MID LEVEL
SUPPORT MAY YIELD SCT MTN SHRA/ISO TSRA TO ISO SHRA/TSRA ALONG I-77
EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH MID EVENING. DAILY TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL GIVEN THE LOCATION OF THE CLOSED MID
LOW AND ASSOCIATED THICKNESSES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 210 PM TUESDAY...THERE IS A WIDE RANGE IN SOLUTIONS IN THE
MODELS AS TO WHERE THE STRONG SHORTWAVE GOES NEXT WEEKEND AND INTO
THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.  THE 06Z GFS WAS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH
THE 00Z ECMWF.  THE 00Z GEM HAD A MUCH NORTHERN TRACK OF THE
SHORTWAVE AND THEN THE 12Z GFS CAME OUT IN A MAJOR SHIFT FROM A
CLOSED LOW OVER NEBRASKA TO A CLOSED LOW OVER FAR SOUTHERN CANADA.
THE 12Z GEM NOW HAS TRENDED TOWARD THE 00Z ECMWF.  THE ANSWER HAS TO
BE SOMEWHERE IN THE MIDDLE.  THERE IS REASONABLE CONFIDENCE THAT A
MAIN SPOKE OF ENERGY WILL CREATE A GREATER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS FLOW FROM THE GULF AND UPPER
SUPPORT WILL OCCUR.  WHILE BEING IN THE CONTINUED WARM SECTOR WE
SHOULD BE IN AT LEAST NORMAL CLIMATOLOGICAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD IF NOT A FEW DEGREES ABOVE.  IT NOW APPEARS THE EITHER CLOSED
OFF LOW OR AXIS OF THE MAIN TROUGH WILL NOT PASS UNTIL AT LEAST MID
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH THRU THE EVENING
WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER UNTIL
AFTER MIDNIGHT AS SHORT WAVE MOVES IN AND TAPS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
VFR SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT WHEN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
MOVES IN BRINING MVFR CIGS AT KCLT AND KHKY. COULD BE SOME MVFR FOG
AT THE SC SITES. EXPECT ANOTHER NIGHT OF VLIFR CIGS AND VSBY AT
KAVL. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE BY MID MORNING WITH VFR EXPECTED.
EVEN BETTER CHANCES OF CONVECTION WED AFT...BUT LEFT OUT OF TAFS FOR
NOW DUE TO TIMING CONCERNS. DID PUT CB IN AT KAVL. CONVECTION HAS
CAUSED QUITE A VARIABILITY IN WINDS. EXPECT THEM TO RETURN TO A
LIGHT NNE THIS EVENING. WINDS BECOME NE DURING THE MORNING THEN SLY
OVER THE WEST BUT REMAINING NELY FOR KHKY/KCLT.

OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF AFTN-EVE SHWRS/TSTMS THRU SAT. MRNG FOG AND LOW
CLOUD RESTRICTIONS PSBL MTNS...MAINLY KAVL.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...RB/RWH
SHORT TERM...NED
LONG TERM...DEO
AVIATION...RWH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
614 PM EDT TUE SEP 8 2009

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-092215-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-ALEXANDER-
IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-
ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-
GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-
ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
614 PM EDT TUE SEP 8 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION
THIS EVENING. A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. SEVERE STORMS ARE MOST LIKELY OVER THE
UPSTATE OF SOUTH CAROLINA. REMEMBER...CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING
AND BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
801 PM EDT TUE SEP 8 2009

SCZ012-019-090100-
GREENWOOD-LAURENS-
801 PM EDT TUE SEP 8 2009

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT LAURENS AND EASTERN GREENWOOD
COUNTIES THROUGH 900 PM EDT...

AT 759 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH
AND TORRENTIAL RAINFALL. THERE STORMS WERE ALONG A LINE EXTENDING
FROM GRAY COURT TO COKESBURY...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

PEOPLE IN THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS...

HICKORY TAVERN...WARE SHOALS...GRAY COURT...COKESBURY...LAURENS...
LAKE GREENWOOD...CROSS HILL...NINETY SIX AND CLINTON...

SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE
WARNINGS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION SHOULD SEVERE
WEATHER THREATEN.

HEAVY RAINS MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES. AVOID THESE AREAS AND DO NOT CROSS FLOODED ROADS.

LANE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1215 AM EDT WED SEP 9 2009

NCZ069-090515-
LINCOLN-
1215 AM EDT WED SEP 9 2009

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT LINCOLN COUNTY THROUGH 115 AM
EDT...

AT 1214 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 5 MILES NORTHEAST OF BOGER CITY...OR 7 MILES
NORTHEAST OF LINCOLNTON...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  IRON STATION...
  DENVER...
  LOWESVILLE...

PEA SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM. RAINFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE...WHICH COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS.

HG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1240 AM EDT WED SEP 9 2009

NCZ033-090530-
AVERY-
1240 AM EDT WED SEP 9 2009

...THUNDERSTORMS TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS AVERY COUNTY
THROUGH 2 AM EDT...

AT 1236 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
SEVERAL THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS AVERY COUNTY AND MOVING
SLOWLY SOUTHEAST AT 5 TO 10 MPH. THESE THUNDERSTORMS WERE PRODUCING
RAINFALL AT RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR...AND THESE HEAVY RATES
WILL LIKELY CONTINUE PAST 1 AM.

THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL IMPACT AREAS FROM MINNEAPOLIS TO
NEWLAND...AND ALSO THE EASTERN END OF THE COUNTY NEAR THE CALDWELL
COUNTY BORDER. RAPID RISES ON STREAMS AND CREEKS ARE
EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY LOST COVE CREEK NEAR THE CALDWELL COUNTY
BORDER...AND BIRCHFIELD CREEK NEAR MINNEAPOLIS...WHICH COULD REACH
BANKFULL. ISOLATED FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS IS POSSIBLE.

DO NOT ATTEMPT TO DRIVE THROUGH ANY FLOODED ROADWAYS.

HG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1255 AM EDT WED SEP 9 2009

NCZ501>504-090545-
BURKE MOUNTAINS-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-GREATER CALDWELL-
1255 AM EDT WED SEP 9 2009

...HEAVY RAINFALL TO AFFECT BURKE AND CALDWELL COUNTIES THROUGH 200
AM EDT...

AT 1250 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTH CAROLINA
FOOTHILLS...PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS MUCH OF BURKE AND
CALDWELL COUNTIES. THESE THUNDERSTORMS WERE PRODUCING RAINFALL AT
RATES APPROACHING TWO INCHES PER HOUR...AND THIS HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE UNTIL 2 AM.

ISOLATED FLOODING MAY DEVELOP IN LOW LYING AREAS...ESPECIALLY FROM
EDGEMONT TO MORGANTON. RAPID RISES ARE EXPECTED ON AREA STREAMS AND
CREEKS...ESPECIALLY WILSON CREEK IN WESTERN CALDWELL COUNTY...AND
BRISTOL CREEK IN NORTHERN BURKE COUNTY.

DO NOT ATTEMPT TO DRIVE THROUGH ANY FLOODED ROADWAYS.

HG