Severe Thunderstorm Warning 364, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
311 PM EDT SUN AUG 16 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE ATLANTIC
WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH MIDWEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION TOWARD THE
END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
MOIST AIRMASS REMAINS OVER AREA WITH WEAK S UPSLOPE FLOW. CAPE
VALUES HAVE INCRSD TO 1-2K J/KG WITH WEAKLY UNSTABLE SOUNDING
PROFILES. WENT WITH AT LEAST SCT SHWRS/TSTMS ACROSS THE CWA THRU THE
EVE. DAMAGING WIND OR HAIL THREAT RELATIVELY SMALL BUT WITH THE SLOW
STEERING WINDS...PSBL FLASH FLOODING IS MAIN CONCERN...ESPLY IN AREAS
WHERE SLOW MOVG STORMS BACK-BUILD OR TRAIN. CONVECTION WILL TAPER
OFF LATE THIS EVE BUT KEPT LOW CHANCE POPS IN OVERNIGHT. TEMPS WILL
COOL TO NEAR AVG...THEN CONVECTION WILL INCREASE WITH HEATING MON AS
MOIST S FLOW CONTINUES. HAVE SOLID CHANCE SHWRS/TSTMS OVER MOST OF
CWA BY 16Z. UPPER FLOW REMAINS LGT AND SLOW MOVG STORMS MAY BE OF
CONCERN AGAIN. AFTN HIGHS SHOULD BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW AVG.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 250 PM SUNDAY...THE REMNANT CIRCULATION AND MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH T.S. CLAUDETTE SHOULD BE LOCATED NEAR THE NRN BORDER
OF MS/AL MONDAY NIGHT. THE CWA WILL REMAIN EAST OF MOST OF THE
RAINFALL...HOWEVER...DEEP MOISTURE...WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW...LINGERING
CAPE SHOULD SUPPORT A FEW MTN SHRA/TSRA OVERNIGHT. TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...THE CWA WILL REMAIN UNDER WEAK RIDGING WITHIN THE MID
LEVELS WITH A SHALLOW LEE TROF AT THE SFC. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE WEAK INSTABILITY AND A POSSIBLE H7 INVERSION
EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS PATTERN SHOULD SUPPORT MAINLY SCT
SHRA/TSRA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO REMAIN AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM SUNDAY...MODELS FEATURE EXCELLENT AGREEMENT REGARDING
LARGE SCALE FEATURES FOR THE MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST PERIOD. STARTING
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL PATTERN SHOWS A STRONG
ANTICYCLONE CENTERED ALONG THE SE COASTLINE. BY FRIDAY THE AC
WEAKENS CONSIDERABLY AS A RATHER STOUT TROF AND ATTENDING CLOSED LOW
PUSHES ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
THIS TROF THEN SLOWS INTO THE WEEKEND LEAVING THE FA ON ITS EASTERN
PERIPHERY THROUGH SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH FROM
THE WEST ON SATURDAY AND SLOWLY PUSH ACROSS THE FA THROUGH SUNDAY.
EXPECT DIURNAL CONVECTION WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. THERE SHOULD THEN BE SOME DEGREE OF AN INCREASE IN
COVERAGE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...WITH A DECREASING POP TREND
THROUGH SUNDAY AS THE FRONT IS PROGGED TO PUSH EAST OF THE AREA.
TEMPS ALSO COOL AS HEIGHTS FALL WITH THE APPROACHING TROF AND
WEAKENING UPPER RIDGE. ONE POTENTIAL COMPLICATING FACTOR FOR THE
FORECAST INVOLVES ANY TROPICAL SYSTEMS...OR THE REMNANTS OF...IN THE
VICINITY OF THE FA THIS WEEKEND. AT THIS POINT...CONFIDENCE IS
SIMPLY TOO LOW TO PREDICT ANY EFFECTS WITH ANY DEGREE OF CERTAINTY.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEAK INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH HEATING AND S UPSLOPE FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO SPUR CONVECTION THRU THIS EVE. WENT WITH CB CLOUDS...
VCTS FOR ALL TERMINALS AT 18Z ISSUANCE...WITH TEMPO -TSRA AT KCLT
AND KAVL. CONVECTION WILL TAPER OFF OVERNIGHT BUT LOW CLOUDS SHOULD
LINGER AND SCT SHWRS WILL BE PSBL. EXPECT MVFR CIG/VSBY LATE TNGT
THRU 14-15Z WITH IFR AT KAVL. EXPECT DEEPER CONVECTION TO DEVELOP
AGAIN WITH HEATING MON AFTN.

OUTLOOK...PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FOR LOW CLOUDS AND FOG EACH
MORNING THROUGH MID WEEK. CIGS/VSBY WILL ALSO BE RESTRICTED VCNTY
ISOLD-SCT MAINLY AFTN-EVE SHWRS/TSTMS.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...ARK
NEAR TERM...RB
SHORT TERM...NED
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...RB

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
406 AM EDT SUN AUG 16 2009

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-170815-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-ALEXANDER-
IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-
ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-
GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-
ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
406 AM EDT SUN AUG 16 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON. THE GREATEST COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS THE
NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS...THE UPSTATE...AND THE UPPER SAVANNAH
RIVER VALLEY. HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING WILL
BE THE MAIN THREATS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

ARK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
228 PM EDT SUN AUG 16 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0220 PM     FLASH FLOOD      5 SW CHARLOTTE          35.15N 80.90W
08/16/2009                   MECKLENBURG        NC   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            2 VEHICLES REPORTED FLOATING IN WATER AT TYVOLA ROAD AND
            I-77.

&&

BSH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
246 PM EDT SUN AUG 16 2009

NCZ071-161930-
MECKLENBURG-
246 PM EDT SUN AUG 16 2009

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHWESTERN MECKLENBURG COUNTY
THROUGH 330 PM EDT...

AT 245 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR CAROWINDS...OR 9 MILES SOUTHWEST OF CENTER
CITY CHARLOTTE...MOVING EAST AT 5 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO CAROWINDS
  AND PINEVILLE.

SMALL HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

INTENSE LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. IF OUTDOORS...STAY
AWAY FROM ISOLATED HIGH OBJECTS SUCH AS TREES. MOVE INDOORS IF
POSSIBLE. WHEN INDOORS...STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND DOORS AND AVOID
USING TELEPHONES UNLESS IT IS AN EMERGENCY. TRY TO UNPLUG UNNECESSARY
ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES BEFORE THE THUNDERSTORM APPROACHES.

MCAVOY

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
302 PM EDT SUN AUG 16 2009

NCZ068-069-161945-
CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-
302 PM EDT SUN AUG 16 2009

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHERN CLEVELAND AND WESTERN
LINCOLN COUNTIES THROUGH 345 PM EDT...

AT 302 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 6 MILES NORTHEAST OF LAWNDALE...OR 14 MILES NORTH
OF SHELBY...MOVING EAST AT 5 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO BELWOOD.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

HEAVY RAINS MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES. AVOID THESE AREAS AND DO NOT CROSS FLOODED ROADS. WATER
LEVELS OF SMALL STREAMS AND RIVERS MAY ALSO RISE...THEREFORE SEEK
HIGHER GROUND IF THREATENED BY FLOOD WATERS.

MCAVOY

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
318 PM EDT SUN AUG 16 2009

NCZ068-162000-
CLEVELAND-
318 PM EDT SUN AUG 16 2009

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CENTRAL CLEVELAND COUNTY THROUGH
400 PM EDT...

AT 317 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED AN
AREA OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM THE NORTH SIDE OF SHELBY
TO LAWNDALE. THE STORMS WERE DRIFTING SLOWLY TO THE NORTH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO SHELBY...
  LAWNDALE...KINGSTOWN AND FALLSTON.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH...AND RAINFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER
HOUR ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

HEAVY RAINS MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES. AVOID THESE AREAS AND DO NOT CROSS FLOODED ROADS. WATER
LEVELS OF SMALL STREAMS AND RIVERS MAY ALSO RISE...THEREFORE SEEK
HIGHER GROUND IF THREATENED BY FLOOD WATERS.

MCAVOY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
435 PM EDT SUN AUG 16 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0226 PM     TSTM WND DMG     CRAMERTON               35.23N 81.07W
08/16/2009                   GASTON             NC   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            ONE TREE ACROSS A ROAD.

&&

NED

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
555 PM EDT SUN AUG 16 2009

SCZ006-162300-
GREATER GREENVILLE-
555 PM EDT SUN AUG 16 2009

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CENTRAL GREENVILLE COUNTY
THROUGH 700 PM EDT...

AT 553 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR FURMAN UNIVERSITY...OR 6 MILES NORTHWEST OF
GREENVILLE...MOVING NORTH AT 5 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO CHERRYDALE
  POINT...FURMAN UNIVERSITY...TRAVELERS REST...PARIS MOUNTAIN STATE
  PARK AND BEREA.

SMALL HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM. RAINFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES AN HOUR ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.

INTENSE LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. IF OUTDOORS...STAY
AWAY FROM ISOLATED HIGH OBJECTS SUCH AS TREES. MOVE INDOORS IF
POSSIBLE. WHEN INDOORS...STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND DOORS AND AVOID
USING TELEPHONES UNLESS IT IS AN EMERGENCY. TRY TO UNPLUG UNNECESSARY
ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES BEFORE THE THUNDERSTORM APPROACHES.

MCAVOY