Severe Thunderstorm Warning 172, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
742 PM EDT WED JUN 10 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION INTO THURSDAY WILL BREAK DOWN AND
ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO DRIFT SOUTH FROM THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY LATE
THIS WEEK.  THE FRONT SHOULD STALL OUT THIS WEEKEND FROM WEST TO
EAST OVER THE CAROLINAS.  HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL PUSH THE
FRONT JUST SOUTH OF OUR AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE THE FRONT COMES
BACK NORTH AGAIN IN MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ROBUST OUTFLOW/VORT AIDED TSTMS WILL CONTINUE MAKING EASTWARD
PROGRESS INTO THE NC MTNS THIS AFTERNOON WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT
AHEAD OF BROKEN LINE PROBABLE ACRS THE WESTERN CWFA WITHIN THE
MODERATELY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE. AS STEERING MOTION IS GREATER THAN
THAN PAST SVRL DAYS...SHOULD WIND UP WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS TSTMS
ALL ACRS THE FA THRU LATE EVENING. WITH FAVORABLE WET-BULB ZERO
HEIGHTS OBSERVED OFF THE 12 UTC KGSO SNDG...ALONG WITH THE ONGOING
THREAT OF MULTICELL DEVELOPMENT...WILL CONTINUE THE THREAT OF SOME
STORMS PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND/OR DAMAGING WIND. WILL BANK ON THE
LATEST RUC AND NAM HAVING A FAIR ENUF HANDLE ON THE EASTWARD
TRANSLATION OF VORT ENERGY...PASSING DOWNSTREAM OF THE CWFA
OVERNIGHT TO LOWER POPS TO JUST SLIGHT CHANCE IN IT/S WAKE. PATTERN
WILL AMPLIFY SOME ON THURSDAY IN RESPONSE TO MAIN S/WV DRIVING NE
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. SHEAR PROFILES EXPECTEDLY CREEP UPWARD IN
MAGNITUDE IN RESPONSE...ALTHOUGH IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN TO WHAT
DEGREE EMBEDDED S/WVS...PERHAPS NEARING THE FA IN THE MORNING...HAVE
ON THE DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION PROCESS...BUT FOR NOW...PLAN ON
RAMPING UP TO SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS TSTMS ONCE AGAIN IN THE
AFTERNOON. FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES AND THE CHANCE FOR STORM
ORGANIZATION WILL EXIST AGAIN...LEADING TO THE THREAT OF SEEING
TSTMS PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND/OR DAMAGING WIND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 245 PM WEDNESDAY...MODELS ARE STILL IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THRU
THE SHORT TERM. NEARLY ZONAL FLOW AT THE START OF THE PERIOD BECOMES
A LOW AMPLITUDE TROF BY THE END OF THE PERIOD AS A SERIES OF SHORT
WAVES MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. STILL LOOKS LIKE MAINLY DIURNAL
CONVECTION ENDING THU EVENING. HOWEVER...THERE IS SOME INDICATION
MCS ACTIVITY WILL BE CLOSE ENUF TO THE MTNS AND NRN TIER FOR
CONVECTION TO LINGER. HOWEVER...THE GFS APPEARS WAY OVERDONE WITH
CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK. THAT SAID...WILL KEEP A CHC POP AFTER MIDNIGHT
OVER THOSE AREAS. LOWS REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.

ON FRIDAY...WEAK FRONT DROPS INTO THE AREA PROVIDING GOOD LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE. ALTHOUGH HIGHS WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER...THE SREF HAS
HIGH PROBABILITIES OF MODERATE CONVECTION DEVELOPING. ALTHOUGH
SHEAR WILL BE LOW...IT WILL BE HIGHER THAN THE PREVIOUS FEW DAYS.
SCT CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN...WITH THE LEAST COVERAGE
SOUTH OF I-85. FRONT SAGS SOUTH THRU THE AREA FRI NITE. EXPECT
CONVECTION TO BECOME ISOLATED AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS A COUPLE OF
DEGREES COOLER.

FOR SATURDAY...EVEN WITH THE FRONT STALLED JUST TO OUR SOUTH OR OVER
THE SRN CWFA...MODERATE INSTABILITY IS ONCE AGAIN PROBABLE. WITH THE
FORCING AND SLIGHTLY INCREASED SHEAR...SCT CONVECTION DEVELOPS
AGAIN. HIGHS SIMILAR TO FRIDAYS NUMBERS. CONVECTION SHOULD BE MAINLY
DIURNAL SAT NITE WITH CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL LOWS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 225 PM WEDNESDAY...CONFIDENCE IN THE RUN TO RUN ECMWF IS STILL
LOW AS IT CONTINUES TO SHOW A WINTER TYPE LOW BOMBING NEAR THE
DELMARVA TOWARD THE END OF THE MEDIUM RANGE.  SOME CONFIDENCE
LEANING MORE TOWARD THE GFS...ALTHOUGH A COMPLEX BLEND IS MORE IN
ORDER.  STARTING WITH SUNDAY...A NEARLY ZONAL PATTERN IN THE 500MB
HEIGHTS AS THE SURFACE FRONT LINGERS FROM WEST TO EAST OVER THE
CAROLINAS INTO MONDAY MORNING.  SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED
ACCORDING TO HPC TO BUILD FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO START THE WEEK AND
PUSH THE SURFACE FRONT TO THE SOUTH STALLING OVER SOUTH GEORGIA
TUESDAY.  MODELS DO TEND TO AGREE THAT SOME SORT OF DISTURBANCE WILL
MOVE OUT AHEAD OF THE GREAT LAKES HIGH...THEN SOME LEVEL OF EAST
COAST LOW MAY DEVELOP.  THE CONSENSUS IS THAT AS THIS DISTURBANCE
PASSES TO THE NORTH ON MONDAY...A CONTINUED SLIGHT TO SMALL CHANCE
OF CONVECTION WILL EXTEND INTO AT LEAST MONDAY NIGHT.  THE LEVEL OF
COASTAL LOW DEVELOPMENT WOULD DETERMINE OUR WEATHER GOING INTO THE
END OF THE MEDIUM RANGE.  SHOULD DRY OUT SOME IN MID WEEK ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THE DEPARTING LOW.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
TSRA ACTIVITY WILL PUSH EAST OF THE CWA BY LATE THIS EVENING. BY
THEN...MOST OF THE NC MTNS...FOOTHILLS...AND PIEDMONT AREAS SHOULD
HAVE RECEIVED MEASURABLE RAINFALL. OVERNIGHT...WINDS WILL BECOME
LIGHT TO CALM UNDER HIGH DEBRIS CLOUDS. LIGHT FOG MAY DEVELOP LATE
TONIGHT AND REMAIN UNTIL SUNRISE...ESPECIALLY KAVL AND KHKY.
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN TO 5-9 KTS BY MID DAY AHEAD OF A OHIO
VALLEY LOW. INCREASING INSTABILITY AND ANOTHER PASSING S/W WILL
RESULT IN GOOD COVERAGE OF DEEP CONVECTION THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

AT KCLT...A LINE OF SHRA/TSRA WILL LIKELY PASS ACROSS THE TERMINAL
BETWEEN 0-2Z. THE LINE SHOULD BRING A PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY
WINDS FROM A WEST DIRECTION. I WILL HANDLE THE PASSAGE OF THE LINE
WITH A TEMPO FOR THE INITIAL TAF. I PLAN TO REFINE TIMING AS THE LINE
APPROACHES. THE WETTING RAIN WILL INCREASE THE CHC FOR FOG DURING
THE PRE DAWN HOURS. I WILL TEMPO 6SM IN FOG AROUND SUNRISE. AFTER
SUNRISE...WINDS SHOULD BECOME SOUTH AROUND 5 KTS AND VEER TO
SOUTHWEST BY MID DAY. INCREASING INSTABILITY AND ANOTHER PASSING S/W
WILL RESULT IN GOOD COVERAGE OF DEEP CONVECTION THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.

OUTLOOK...AREAS OF MVFR VISBY/PERHAPS CIG RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE
EACH MORNING. CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL
INCREASE THROUGH THURSDAY...THEN PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A
FRONT STALLS OVER THE AREA.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...CSH
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...DEO
AVIATION...NED

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
345 PM EDT WED JUN 10 2009

NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-068>072-082-501>510-111945-
AVERY-ALEXANDER-IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-
BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-
SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-
MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-
BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-
RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-
345 PM EDT WED JUN 10 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PIEDMONT NORTH CAROLINA AND
WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTH CAROLINA
MOUNTAINS...FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
THIS EVENING. SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME SEVERE...WITH
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL THE PRIMARY THREAT. THE SLOWER
MOVING THUNDERSTORMS COULD ALSO PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING. FREQUENT
LIGHTNING CAN OCCUR WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS COULD ALSO BECOME
SEVERE...PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY AFTERNOON. A FEW OF
THESE STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO FORWARD ANY REPORTS OF LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...TORNADOES OR FLASH FLOODING TO OUR OFFICE.

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-SCZ001>014-019-111945-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-
GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-
ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
345 PM EDT WED JUN 10 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA AND UPSTATE
SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE UPSTATE AND NORTHEAST
GEORGIA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. A FEW OF THESE
THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE...WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS THE MAIN THREAT. FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND BRIEF HEAVY
RAINFALL CAN OCCUR WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. A FEW OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS COULD ALSO BECOME
SEVERE...PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY AFTERNOON. A FEW OF
THESE STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO FORWARD ANY REPORTS OF LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...TORNADOES OR FLASH FLOODING TO OUR OFFICE.

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
653 PM EDT WED JUN 10 2009

SCZ007-110000-
SPARTANBURG-
653 PM EDT WED JUN 10 2009

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CENTRAL SPARTANBURG COUNTY
THROUGH 800 PM EDT...

AT 651 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR INMAN...OR 10 MILES NORTHWEST OF
SPARTANBURG...MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO WELLFORD...
  SPARTANBURG...ROEBUCK...MAYO...LYMAN...INMAN...DUNCAN AND BOILING
  SPRINGS SC.

PEA SIZE HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

HEAVY RAINS MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES. AVOID THESE AREAS AND DO NOT CROSS FLOODED ROADS. WATER
LEVELS OF SMALL STREAMS AND RIVERS MAY ALSO RISE...THEREFORE SEEK
HIGHER GROUND IF THREATENED BY FLOOD WATERS.

RB

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
659 PM EDT WED JUN 10 2009

SCZ014-102330-
CHESTER-
659 PM EDT WED JUN 10 2009

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN CHESTER COUNTY
THROUGH 730 PM EDT...

AT 657 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR GREAT FALLS RESERVOIR...OR 11 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF LANCASTER...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO GREAT FALLS
  RESERVOIR...FISHING CREEK RESERVOIR AND GREAT FALLS.

PEA SIZE HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

HEAVY RAINS MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES. AVOID THESE AREAS AND DO NOT CROSS FLOODED ROADS. WATER
LEVELS OF SMALL STREAMS AND RIVERS MAY ALSO RISE...THEREFORE SEEK
HIGHER GROUND IF THREATENED BY FLOOD WATERS.

RB

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
704 PM EDT WED JUN 10 2009

NCZ068-508-110000-
CLEVELAND-GREATER RUTHERFORD-
704 PM EDT WED JUN 10 2009

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT EASTERN RUTHERFORD AND WESTERN
CLEVELAND COUNTIES THROUGH 800 PM EDT...

AT 703 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 5 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
DYSARTSVILLE TO 3 MILES SOUTH OF CLIFFSIDE...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO BOSTIC...
  SUNSHINE...SHELBY...POLKVILLE...MOORESBORO...LAWNDALE...
  LATTIMORE...KINGSTOWN...HARRIS...FOREST CITY...ELLENBORO...EARL...
  CLIFFSIDE...CASAR...BOILING SPRINGS NC AND ALEXANDER MILLS.

PEA SIZE HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH
THESE STORMS.

HEAVY RAINS MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES. AVOID THESE AREAS AND DO NOT CROSS FLOODED ROADS. WATER
LEVELS OF SMALL STREAMS AND RIVERS MAY ALSO RISE...THEREFORE SEEK
HIGHER GROUND IF THREATENED BY FLOOD WATERS.

RB

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
716 PM EDT WED JUN 10 2009

NCZ082-110015-
UNION-
716 PM EDT WED JUN 10 2009

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT UNION COUNTY THROUGH 815 PM
EDT...

AT 715 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 3 MILES NORTHEAST OF MINERAL SPRINGS...OR 5 MILES
WEST OF MONROE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO MINERAL
  SPRINGS...UNIONVILLE...WINGATE...WEDDINGTON...STURDIVANTS...NEW
  SALEM...MONROE...MARSHVILLE AND FAIRVIEW.

PEA SIZE HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

HEAVY RAINS MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES. AVOID THESE AREAS AND DO NOT CROSS FLOODED ROADS. WATER
LEVELS OF SMALL STREAMS AND RIVERS MAY ALSO RISE...THEREFORE SEEK
HIGHER GROUND IF THREATENED BY FLOOD WATERS.

RB

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
743 PM EDT WED JUN 10 2009

NCZ056-068>070-SCZ008-009-110045-
CATAWBA-CHEROKEE-CLEVELAND-GASTON-LINCOLN-YORK-
743 PM EDT WED JUN 10 2009

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT CHEROKEE...CLEVELAND...
NORTHWESTERN YORK...SOUTHWESTERN CATAWBA...WESTERN GASTON AND WESTERN
LINCOLN COUNTIES THROUGH 845 PM EDT...

AT 741 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 4 MILES NORTHWEST OF
VALE TO 4 MILES NORTHEAST OF PACOLET...MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO WACO...
  VALE...SHELBY...PATTERSON SPRINGS...MAIDEN...LINCOLNTON...
  LAWNDALE...LATTIMORE...KINGSTOWN...KINGS MOUNTAIN...HIGH SHOALS...
  GROVER...FALLSTON...EARL...CROUSE...COOKSVILLE...CHERRYVILLE...
  BOILING SPRINGS NC...BOGER CITY...BESSEMER CITY...BELWOOD...
  THICKETTY...SMYRNA...SARATT...KINGS MOUNTAIN STATE PARK...HICKORY
  GROVE...GAFFNEY AND BLACKSBURG.

PEA SIZE HAIL...WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH...AND PERIODS OF HEAVY
RAIN ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

RB