Severe Thunderstorm Warning 166, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
246 PM EDT WED JUN 10 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION TODAY AND THURSDAY WILL BREAK
DOWN AND ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO DRIFT IN FROM THE NORTHWEST ON
FRIDAY. ONCE HERE...THE FRONT WILL LINGER ACROSS THE CAROLINAS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ROBUST OUTFLOW/VORT AIDED TSTMS WILL CONTINUE MAKING EASTWARD
PROGRESS INTO THE NC MTNS THIS AFTERNOON WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT
AHEAD OF BROKEN LINE PROBABLE ACRS THE WESTERN CWFA WITHIN THE
MODERATELY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE. AS STEERING MOTION IS GREATER THAN
THAN PAST SVRL DAYS...SHOULD WIND UP WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS TSTMS
ALL ACRS THE FA THRU LATE EVENING. WITH FAVORABLE WET-BULB ZERO
HEIGHTS OBSERVED OFF THE 12 UTC KGSO SNDG...ALONG WITH THE ONGOING
THREAT OF MULTICELL DEVELOPMENT...WILL CONTINUE THE THREAT OF SOME
STORMS PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND/OR DAMAGING WIND. WILL BANK ON THE
LATEST RUC AND NAM HAVING A FAIR ENUF HANDLE ON THE EASTWARD
TRANSLATION OF VORT ENERGY...PASSING DOWNSTREAM OF THE CWFA
OVERNIGHT TO LOWER POPS TO JUST SLIGHT CHANCE IN IT/S WAKE. PATTERN
WILL AMPLIFY SOME ON THURSDAY IN RESPONSE TO MAIN S/WV DRIVING NE
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. SHEAR PROFILES EXPECTEDLY CREEP UPWARD IN
MAGNITUDE IN RESPONSE...ALTHOUGH IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN TO WHAT
DEGREE EMBEDDED S/WVS...PERHAPS NEARING THE FA IN THE MORNING...HAVE
ON THE DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION PROCESS...BUT FOR NOW...PLAN ON
RAMPING UP TO SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS TSTMS ONCE AGAIN IN THE
AFTERNOON. FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES AND THE CHANCE FOR STORM
ORGANIZATION WILL EXIST AGAIN...LEADING TO THE THREAT OF SEEING
TSTMS PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND/OR DAMAGING WIND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 245 PM WEDNESDAY...MODELS ARE STILL IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THRU
THE SHORT TERM. NEARLY ZONAL FLOW AT THE START OF THE PERIOD BECOMES
A LOW AMPLITUDE TROF BY THE END OF THE PERIOD AS A SERIES OF SHORT
WAVES MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. STILL LOOKS LIKE MAINLY DIURNAL
CONVECTION ENDING THU EVENING. HOWEVER...THERE IS SOME INDICATION
MCS ACTIVITY WILL BE CLOSE ENUF TO THE MTNS AND NRN TIER FOR
CONVECTION TO LINGER. HOWEVER...THE GFS APPEARS WAY OVERDONE WITH
CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK. THAT SAID...WILL KEEP A CHC POP AFTER MIDNIGHT
OVER THOSE AREAS. LOWS REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.

ON FRIDAY...WEAK FRONT DROPS INTO THE AREA PROVIDING GOOD LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE. ALTHOUGH HIGHS WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER...THE SREF HAS
HIGH PROBABILITIES OF MODERATE CONVECTION DEVELOPING. ALTHOUGH
SHEAR WILL BE LOW...IT WILL BE HIGHER THAN THE PREVIOUS FEW DAYS.
SCT CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN...WITH THE LEAST COVERAGE
SOUTH OF I-85. FRONT SAGS SOUTH THRU THE AREA FRI NITE. EXPECT
CONVECTION TO BECOME ISOLATED AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS A COUPLE OF
DEGREES COOLER.

FOR SATURDAY...EVEN WITH THE FRONT STALLED JUST TO OUR SOUTH OR OVER
THE SRN CWFA...MODERATE INSTABILITY IS ONCE AGAIN PROBABLE. WITH THE
FORCING AND SLIGHTLY INCREASED SHEAR...SCT CONVECTION DEVELOPS
AGAIN. HIGHS SIMILAR TO FRIDAYS NUMBERS. CONVECTION SHOULD BE MAINLY
DIURNAL SAT NITE WITH CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL LOWS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 225 PM WEDNESDAY...CONFIDENCE IN THE RUN TO RUN ECMWF IS STILL
LOW AS IT CONTINUES TO SHOW A WINTER TYPE LOW BOMBING NEAR THE
DELMARVA TOWARD THE END OF THE MEDIUM RANGE.  SOME CONFIDENCE
LEANING MORE TOWARD THE GFS...ALTHOUGH A COMPLEX BLEND IS MORE IN
ORDER.  STARTING WITH SUNDAY...A NEARLY ZONAL PATTERN IN THE 500MB
HEIGHTS AS THE SURFACE FRONT LINGERS FROM WEST TO EAST OVER THE
CAROLINAS INTO MONDAY MORNING.  SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED
ACCORDING TO HPC TO BUILD FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO START THE WEEK AND
PUSH THE SURFACE FRONT TO THE SOUTH STALLING OVER SOUTH GEORGIA
TUESDAY.  MODELS DO TEND TO AGREE THAT SOME SORT OF DISTURBANCE WILL
MOVE OUT AHEAD OF THE GREAT LAKES HIGH...THEN SOME LEVEL OF EAST
COAST LOW MAY DEVELOP.  THE CONSENSUS IS THAT AS THIS DISTURBANCE
PASSES TO THE NORTH ON MONDAY...A CONTINUED SLIGHT TO SMALL CHANCE
OF CONVECTION WILL EXTEND INTO AT LEAST MONDAY NIGHT.  THE LEVEL OF
COASTAL LOW DEVELOPMENT WOULD DETERMINE OUR WEATHER GOING INTO THE
END OF THE MEDIUM RANGE.  SHOULD DRY OUT SOME IN MID WEEK ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THE DEPARTING LOW.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
REGIONAL 88D IMAGES INDICATING THAT DEEP CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS
JUST IN IT/S INFANCY ACRS THE HIGH TERRAIN OF THE FA...BUT WILL
INCREASE IN CVRG THRU MID-AFTERNOON AND DEVELOP OUT INTO THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING...AIDED BY VORT MAX MOVG EAST ACRS
TENN. UNTIL TIMING AND CVRG CONFIDENCE INCREASES...WILL CONTINUE TO
ADVERTISE JUST CB AT ALL TERMINAL LOCATIONS. WITH VORT TIMED TO
MOVE EAST OF THE FA BY MID OR LATE EVENING...WILL END TSTM THREAT
BEFORE MIDNIGHT AND FCST JUST DEBRIS CLOUDS OVERNIGHT...WITH AREAS
OF 5-6SM BR...ESPECIALLY AT KAVL DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS.

AT KCLT...SCT VFR LVL CU IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AS
WIND DIRECTION REMAINS VARIABLE AND LESS THAN 6 KTS. AS TSTM
ACTIVITY DEVELOPS OFF THE MTNS LATER TODAY...WOULD EXPECT TSTM
CHANCES TO INCREASE AROUND THE TERMINAL THIS EVENING AND LINGER INTO
THE LATE EVENING HOURS UNTIL VORT MAX PASSES. JUST DEBRIS CLOUDS
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH NO VSBY RESTRICTIONS.

OUTLOOK...AREAS OF MVFR VISBY/PERHAPS CIG RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE
EACH MORNING. CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL
INCREASE THROUGH THURSDAY...THEN PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A
FRONT STALLS OVER THE AREA.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...CSH
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...DEO
AVIATION...CSH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
345 PM EDT WED JUN 10 2009

NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-068>072-082-501>510-111945-
AVERY-ALEXANDER-IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-
BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-
SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-
MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-
BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-
RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-
345 PM EDT WED JUN 10 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PIEDMONT NORTH CAROLINA AND
WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTH CAROLINA
MOUNTAINS...FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
THIS EVENING. SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME SEVERE...WITH
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL THE PRIMARY THREAT. THE SLOWER
MOVING THUNDERSTORMS COULD ALSO PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING. FREQUENT
LIGHTNING CAN OCCUR WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS COULD ALSO BECOME
SEVERE...PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY AFTERNOON. A FEW OF
THESE STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO FORWARD ANY REPORTS OF LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...TORNADOES OR FLASH FLOODING TO OUR OFFICE.

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-SCZ001>014-019-111945-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-
GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-
ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
345 PM EDT WED JUN 10 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA AND UPSTATE
SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE UPSTATE AND NORTHEAST
GEORGIA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. A FEW OF THESE
THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE...WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS THE MAIN THREAT. FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND BRIEF HEAVY
RAINFALL CAN OCCUR WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. A FEW OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS COULD ALSO BECOME
SEVERE...PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY AFTERNOON. A FEW OF
THESE STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO FORWARD ANY REPORTS OF LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...TORNADOES OR FLASH FLOODING TO OUR OFFICE.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
501 PM EDT WED JUN 10 2009

NCZ048-102130-
MADISON-
501 PM EDT WED JUN 10 2009

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT MADISON COUNTY THROUGH 530 PM
EDT...

AT 501 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 8 MILES SOUTHWEST OF HOT SPRINGS...OR 13 MILES
WEST OF MARSHALL...MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
  WHITEROCK...WALNUT...SPRING CREEK...MARSHALL...LUCK AND HOT
  SPRINGS.

PEA SIZE HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

HEAVY RAINS MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES. AVOID THESE AREAS AND DO NOT CROSS FLOODED ROADS. WATER
LEVELS OF SMALL STREAMS AND RIVERS MAY ALSO RISE...THEREFORE SEEK
HIGHER GROUND IF THREATENED BY FLOOD WATERS.

RB

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
503 PM EDT WED JUN 10 2009

NCZ033-501-502-102145-
AVERY-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-
503 PM EDT WED JUN 10 2009

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHERN CALDWELL AND
SOUTHEASTERN AVERY COUNTIES THROUGH 545 PM EDT...

AT 502 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR GLOBE...OR 5 MILES SOUTH OF BLOWING ROCK...
MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO UPTON...
  PATTERSON...KINGS CREEK...GLOBE AND EDGEMONT.

PEA SIZE HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

HEAVY RAINS MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES. AVOID THESE AREAS AND DO NOT CROSS FLOODED ROADS. WATER
LEVELS OF SMALL STREAMS AND RIVERS MAY ALSO RISE...THEREFORE SEEK
HIGHER GROUND IF THREATENED BY FLOOD WATERS.

RB

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
518 PM EDT WED JUN 10 2009

NCZ064-065-SCZ002-003-102200-
GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-HENDERSON-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-TRANSYLVANIA-
518 PM EDT WED JUN 10 2009

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT NORTHERN PICKENS...NORTHWESTERN
GREENVILLE...SOUTHERN HENDERSON AND SOUTHERN TRANSYLVANIA COUNTIES
THROUGH 600 PM EDT...

AT 516 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
SEVERAL STRONG THUNDERSTORMS 5 MILES FROM ROSMAN TO TABLE ROCK STATE
PARK...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO JONES GAP
  STATE PARK...TABLE ROCK RESERVOIR...NORTH SALUDA RESERVOIR...
  TUXEDO...ROSMAN...LITTLE RIVER...CEDAR MOUNTAIN...BREVARD...BALSAM
  GROVE...TIGERVILLE...ROCKY BOTTOM...PUMPKINTOWN...MARIETTA...
  CLEVELAND AND CAESARS HEAD.

PEA SIZE HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

HEAVY RAINS MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES. AVOID THESE AREAS AND DO NOT CROSS FLOODED ROADS. WATER
LEVELS OF SMALL STREAMS AND RIVERS MAY ALSO RISE...THEREFORE SEEK
HIGHER GROUND IF THREATENED BY FLOOD WATERS.

RB