Severe Thunderstorm Warning 116, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
111 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST TODAY AND
THEN SLOWLY CROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
FROM THE WEST OVER THE WEEKEND. MOISTURE AND AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST TOWARD MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A 500 MB TROUGH WAS ANALYZED OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS WHILE A RIDGE
WAS LOCATED DOWNSTREAM OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
AS NOTED LEAVING THE UPPER TROUGH...OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS
...THAT CORRESPONDS WITH A MOISTURE GRADIENT IN THE WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE IMAGERY. SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACED A COLD FRONT OVER THE
LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY. ALTHOUGH MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL BE
SOMEWHAT WEAKER TODAY IN A SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW...OUR AREA
REMAINS FIRMLY IN THE WARM...MOIST SECTOR AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT...AND DESTABILIZATION BY AFTERNOON WILL SUPPORT NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS....WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS AS SOME DRY AIR APPEARS ALOFT. POPS WILL BE
INCREASED TO LIKELY LATE THIS AFTERNOON IN PORTIONS OF THE SC
PIEDMONT. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL AS HEIGHT FALLS ARE EXPECTED TOO LATE TO INFLUENCE
TEMPERATURES....AND MORE LIMITED CLOUD COVER THAN YESTERDAY ALLOWS
WARMING. ISOLATED HEAVY RAIN IS STILL POSSIBLE AS MOISTURE REMAINS
ELEVATED.

WITH ONGOING WESTERLY FLOW AND AN ABSENCE OF DEEP RH TONIGHT...
EXPECT DIURNALLY DIMINISHING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WITH FRIDAY
MORNING MIN TEMPS ABOVE A CATEGORY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM THURSDAY...THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE NW FRI. PRECIPITATION COVERAGE
SHOULD BE BEST ACROSS THE NC PIEDMONT DURING THE AFTN HOURS FRI
WHERE INSTABILITY MAXIMIZES AND UPPER LEVEL DPVA IS STRONGEST WITH
THE PASSING WAVE. CONDITIONS WILL THEN GENERALLY DRY OUT FRI NIGHT
THROUGH SAT AS HIGH PRESSURE NOSES ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE W. AN
MCS MAY DEVELOP IN THE UPPER MIDWEST FRI NIGHT AND MOVE
SE...BUT THIS SHOULD DISSIPATE BEFORE REACHING THE SRN APPALACHIANS
SAT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE NRN TIER OF THE FORECAST AREA ON
SUNDAY. ISOLATED AFTN CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NW HALF
OF THE AREA. TEMPS MAY REACH THE UPPER 80S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AHEAD
OF THE FRONTAL ZONE BY SUNDAY AFTN.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM THURSDAY...BERMUDA HIGH PRES WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA MON THROUGH TUE AS A COLD FRONT SAGS SWD FROM THE
GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE OH VALLEY. MAINLY DIURNAL LOW END TSTM
CHANCES ARE FORECAST FOR THE REGION MON AND TUE AFTN. COVERAGE MAY
IMPROVE ON WED AS THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES FROM THE NORTH. NEAR NORMAL
MIN TEMPS WITH ABOVE NORMAL MAXES ARE EXPECTED MON THROUGH WED.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD EAST
FROM THE MOUNTAINS INTO THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT THIS
AFTERNOON...WARRANTING CUMULONIMBUS AND VCTS IN THE TAFS...AND
TEMPPORARY THUNDER AT KAVL. CONVECTION WANES THIS EVENING.
GUIDANCE HAS CEILING RESTRICTIONS LATE TONIGHT...WITH A BLEND
SUPPORTING IFR IN THE FOOTHILLS...AND MVFR AT KAVL AND KHKY...THE
SAME PLACES WHERE GUIDANCE SUPPORTS MVFR VISIBILITY. BY MORNING
WINDS COME UP FROM THE WEST AND CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR.

AT KCLT...SHOWERS DEVELOPING TO THE EAST WILL DRIFT FARTHER EAST.
EVENTUALLY CONVECTION NOW REACHING THE BLUE RIDGE WILL REACH THE
PIEDMONT...AND CUMULONIMBUS WILL BE CARRIED IN THE TAF. AFTER
CONVECTION DIMINISHES THIS EVENING...MAV GUIDANCE LOWERS CEILINGS
DRAMATICALLY. FOR NOW A TEMPORARY LOW MVFR CEILING WILL BE CARRIED
AROUND DAWN. WINDS COME UP FROM THE WEST BY MID MORNING...WITH THE
CEILING BECOMING VFR.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS COULD REDEVELOP ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. AFTER A DRY SATURDAY...ISOLATED
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS ON
SUNDAY...WITH MORNING MVFR FOG AND STRATUS RESTRICTIONS BECOMING
MORE LIKELY WITH TIME.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND SMOKE MANAGEMENT PARAMETERS APPEAR ON
TRACK. AN UPDATE TO THE PLANNING FORECAST WILL BE PRODUCED FOR
CHANGES TO THE HAINES INDEX AND AN INCREASE IN POPS IN THE SC
PIEDMONT.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...HG
NEAR TERM...CSH/JAT
SHORT TERM...HG
LONG TERM...HG
AVIATION...JAT
FIRE WEATHER...

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
336 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2009

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-290745-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-ALEXANDER-
IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-
ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-
GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-
ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
336 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN
CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA TODAY...ESPECIALLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SMALL HAIL AND BRIEFLY GUSTY WINDS...AS WELL
AS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE
SEVERE...WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE VERY
HEAVY RAINFALL AT RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR. STREAM AND
CREEK LEVELS ARE ALREADY RUNNING HIGH IN MANY AREAS FROM RECENT
RAINFALL. ANY ADDITIONAL HEAVY SHOWERS COULD PRODUCE ISOLATED
FLASH FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

HG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1006 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1030 AM     FLASH FLOOD      4 N PIEDMONT            34.77N 82.46W
05/27/2009                   ANDERSON           SC   PUBLIC

            CRAVENS CREEK OVERFLOWED BANKS AND FLOODED RIVER ROAD
            NEAR HIGHWAY 153.

&&

PTANNER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1013 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0215 AM     FLASH FLOOD      CLAYTON                 34.88N 83.40W
05/27/2009                   RABUN              GA   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            WATER FLOWING ACROSS HWY 76 AT FIVE POINTS AREA 1/4 TO
            1/2 MILE SE OF TOWN.

&&

TBENTHALL

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1251 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2009

GAZ010-NCZ063-064-SCZ001-002-281745-
OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-RABUN-SOUTHERN
JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
1251 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2009

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT NORTHERN
OCONEE...NORTHWESTERN PICKENS...RABUN...SOUTHERN JACKSON AND
SOUTHWESTERN TRANSYLVANIA COUNTIES THROUGH 145 PM EDT...

AT 1247 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
SEVERAL STRONG THUNDERSTORMS OVER RABUN AND NORTHERN OCONEE COUNTIES
MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO NACOOHE
  LAKE...LAKE BURTON...LAKE KEOWEE...LAKE JOCASSEE...TIGER...SKY
  VALLEY...PINE MOUNTAIN...MOUNTAIN CITY...MOCCASIN CREEK STATE
  PARK...LAKEMONT...DILLARD...CLAYTON...SALEM...ROCKY BOTTOM...NINE
  TIMES AND MOUNTAIN REST.

SMALL HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

HEAVY RAINS MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES. AVOID THESE AREAS AND DO NOT CROSS FLOODED ROADS. WATER
LEVELS OF SMALL STREAMS AND RIVERS MAY ALSO RISE...THEREFORE SEEK
HIGHER GROUND IF THREATENED BY FLOOD WATERS.

RB

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1258 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2009

NCZ053-065-507-509-510-281800-
BUNCOMBE-EASTERN POLK-HENDERSON-POLK MOUNTAINS-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
1258 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2009

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHERN HENDERSON...NORTHERN
POLK...SOUTHERN BUNCOMBE AND WESTERN RUTHERFORD COUNTIES THROUGH 200
PM EDT...

AT 1256 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 4 MILES WEST OF MOUNTAIN HOME...OR 7 MILES
NORTHWEST OF HENDERSONVILLE...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO CHIMNEY
  ROCK...FAIRVIEW...SKYLAND...MOUNTAIN HOME...MILLS RIVER...LAKE
  ADGER...HENDERSONVILLE...FLETCHER...ETOWAH...DANA...BILTMORE
  FOREST...BENT CREEK...BAT CAVE AND AVERY CREEK.

SMALL HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

HEAVY RAINS MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES. AVOID THESE AREAS AND DO NOT CROSS FLOODED ROADS. WATER
LEVELS OF SMALL STREAMS AND RIVERS MAY ALSO RISE...THEREFORE SEEK
HIGHER GROUND IF THREATENED BY FLOOD WATERS.

RB

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
101 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2009

NCZ048-052-281745-
HAYWOOD-MADISON-
101 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2009

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHERN HAYWOOD AND WESTERN
MADISON COUNTIES THROUGH 145 PM EDT...

AT 1256 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 5 MILES EAST OF WATERVILLE...OR 18 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF NEWPORT...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
  WHITEROCK...WATERVILLE...WALNUT...SPRING CREEK...MARSHALL...LUCK
  AND HOT SPRINGS.

SMALL HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

HEAVY RAINS MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES. AVOID THESE AREAS AND DO NOT CROSS FLOODED ROADS. WATER
LEVELS OF SMALL STREAMS AND RIVERS MAY ALSO RISE...THEREFORE SEEK
HIGHER GROUND IF THREATENED BY FLOOD WATERS.

RB

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
117 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2009

NCZ062-281800-
MACON-
117 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2009

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHERN MACON COUNTY THROUGH
200 PM EDT...

AT 116 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 3 MILES NORTHEAST OF NANTAHALA LAKE...OR 11 MILES
EAST OF ANDREWS...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO NANTAHALA
  LAKE...KYLE AND FRANKLIN.

SMALL HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

HEAVY RAINS MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES. AVOID THESE AREAS AND DO NOT CROSS FLOODED ROADS. WATER
LEVELS OF SMALL STREAMS AND RIVERS MAY ALSO RISE...THEREFORE SEEK
HIGHER GROUND IF THREATENED BY FLOOD WATERS.

RB