Severe Thunderstorm Warning 76, NWS Goodland, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
533 PM MDT WED JUN 17 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
204 PM MDT WED JUN 17 2009

ANALYSIS OF WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/UPPER AIR DATA INDICATES BROAD
MID/UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. 90KT JET STREAK CURRENTLY
EJECTING FROM THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND APPROACHING THE CWA AS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH BEGINS TO IMPACT THE REGION. SURFACE ANALYSIS
SHOWS A WARM FRONT DRAPED GENERALLY ALONG THE KS/NE BORDER.
MUCH OF THE CWA REMAINS SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT IN THE WARM
SECTOR. ATMOSPHERE OVER THE WARM SECTOR SIGNIFICANTLY CAPPED WITH
H7 TEMPS APPROACHING 15C.

FOLTZ
&&

.DISCUSSION...
204 PM MDT WED JUN 17 2009

MAIN FOCUS IN THE NEAR TERM WILL BE ON POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY OVER THE NORTHERN ZONES THIS EVENING FOLLOWED BY FROPA
THURSDAY AND ADDITIONAL PRECIP CHANCES OVER THE WEEKEND.

19Z MESOANALYSIS INDICATES WARM FRONT STRETCHING FROM IMPERIAL TO
JUST MCCOOK. PARAMETERS ARE HIGHLY FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELL
THUNDERSTORMS WITH EFFECTIVE 0-6KM SHEAR IN EXCESS OF 50KTS. 0-1KM
SHEAR IS WEAK AT THE MOMENT BUT PROGGED TO INCREASE AS THE LLJ
BEGINS TO RAMP UP THIS EVENING. WITH SBCAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF
5000 J/KG...VERY LARGE HAIL WILL BE A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY.
CERTAINLY CANT RULE OUT ISOLATED TORNADOES...PARTICULARLY ALONG
AND NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT. MAIN QUESTION FOR THIS EVENING WILL
BE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS
BREAK OUT QPF OVER SOUTHWEST KANSAS BY 03Z SO INSERTED SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS OVER THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE CWA. CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY SHOULD COME TO AN END ACROSS THE REGION AROUND 06Z.

FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO FROPA THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING. NAM IS
ABOUT 3 HORUS FASTER AS COMPARED TO THE GFS. EC IS SIMILAR IN
TIMING AS THE GFS SO WILL GENERALLY FOLLOW THIS SOLUTION. BRIEF
WINDOW FOR POST-FRONTAL ELEVATED CONVECTION AND HAVE CHANCE POPS
OVER THE NORTH. BUFKIT POINT SOUNDINGS INDICATE GENERALLY WEAK
DEEP LAYER SHEAR SO ANTICIPATING LITTLE MORE THAN MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAIN FROM THESE STORMS.

MEAN LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS CONTINUES INTO
SATURDAY WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAKING ITS WAY INTO THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. WITH BROAD MID/UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL
GULF OF MEXICO WILL AID IN MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE REGION.
HAVE INSERTED LOW SLIGHT CHANCE POPS GIVEN REASONABLE CONTINUITY
IN DETERMINISTIC NUMERICAL GUIDANCE.

MID/UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF COAST WILL BEGIN TO EXPAND NORTHWARD
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK ALLOWING TEMPS TO REACH THE LOW 90S ONCE AGAIN.

FOLTZ
&&

.AVIATION...
532 PM MDT WED JUN 17 2009

FOR THE 00Z TAF CYCLE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL, BUT
CONVECTION CURRENTLY FORMING TO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST MAY IMPACT
EITHER TERMINAL THIS EVENING RESULTING IN INTERMITTENT MVFR/IFR
CIGS AND/OR VIS..PARTICULARLY AT KMCK. BOTH TERMINALS SHOULD BE
DONE WITH THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY BY ABOUT 06Z, BUT ANOTHER CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS AT BOTH SITES JUST OUTSIDE THIS TAF VALID
PERIOD TOMORROW EVENING.

GJG
&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
NE...NONE.
CO...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1027 AM MDT WED JUN 17 2009

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-181645-
YUMA-KIT CARSON-CHEYENNE CO-CHEYENNE KS-RAWLINS-DECATUR-NORTON-
SHERMAN-THOMAS-SHERIDAN-GRAHAM-WALLACE-LOGAN-GOVE-GREELEY-WICHITA-
DUNDY-HITCHCOCK-RED WILLOW-
1027 AM MDT WED JUN 17 2009 /1127 AM CDT WED JUN 17 2009/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EXTREME SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA...NORTHWEST KANSAS AND EAST CENTRAL COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP NORTH OF INTERSTATE
70 THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE
MAINLY NORTH OF U.S. HIGHWAY 36 ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST COLORADO, SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA AND NORTHWEST KANSAS NEAR THE NEBRASKA BORDER. THE MAIN THREAT
WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE LARGE HAIL. HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO POSSIBLE
WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. ANY AREAS RECEIVING HEAVY RAINFALL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING DUE TO THE RAINFALL ALREADY RECEIVED DURING
THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL ARRIVE LATE THURSDAY AS
A COLD FRONT MOVES OVER THE REGION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>