Severe Thunderstorm Warning 232, NWS Goodland, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
200 PM MDT TUE AUG 18 2009

.SHORT TERM... (TONIGHT - FRIDAY)
200 PM MDT TUE AUG 18 2009

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS A WELL DEFINED SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL COLORADO. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH
PRESSURE OVER NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA WAS RESULTING IN A BROAD SOUTHERLY
FLOW INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. BEST MOISTURE REMAINS TO THE SOUTH OF A
LAMAR COLORADO TO DODGE CITY LINE...THOUGH IT WILL MAKE SOME
NORTHWARD PROGRESS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AS SHORTWAVE EJECTS THIS
EVENING...EXPECT MCS TO DEVELOP IN CENTRAL/SOUTHERN COLORADO AND
MOVE EAST INTO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN KANSAS. BEST CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 WITH EVEN BETTER
CHANCES SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 96. ELSEWHERE...THERE IS SOME WEAK
WAA/ISENTROPIC LIFT FORECAST SO EXPECT MORE SCATTERED COVERAGE. MOST
OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE SOUTH OF THE CWA BY 06Z...ENDING BY 12Z.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE TROUGH AXIS ON
WEDNESDAY. EXPECT A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY WITH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL. NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH AFTER 00Z...ACCOMPANIED
BY SURFACE COLD FRONT WHICH WILL SWEEP THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
FAIRLY STRONG SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING WILL ACCOMPANY THE SHORTWAVE
BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z...AND ADDED SOME SLIGHT/LOW CHANCE POPS IN
NORTHERN HALF OF CWA TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LINGERING MORNING SHOWERS/THUNDER ON
THURSDAY AS SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO ADVANCE SOUTHEAST. ONCE THOSE
END...UPPER HEIGHTS WILL BE ON THE RISE AND SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED BY
THE AFTERNOON.

FRIDAY WILL BE WARM AND SUNNY AS RIDGE CENTERED NEAR THE FOUR
CORNERS EXERTS ITS INFLUENCE ACROSS THE ROCKIES.

.LONG TERM... (SATURDAY - TUESDAY)
200 PM MDT TUE AUG 18 2009

STRONG UPPER RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THIS PERIOD. EXTENDED MODEL
SOLUTIONS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A 595DAM RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED
OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS NEXT WEEKEND. THE RIDGE DOES
GET FLATTENED A BIT EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH RIDES OVER
THE TOP...POSSIBLY OPENING THE WAY FOR A BACKDOOR FRONT LATE IN THE
PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL SHOW ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH DAY 6...THEN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AND A
TOUCH COOLER ON DAY 7.

024
&&

.AVIATION...
508 AM MDT TUE AUG 18 2009

FOR THE 12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KMCK AND KGLD
THROUGH 12Z WED. THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AT BOTH LOCATIONS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A STRONG TROUGH MOVES OUT OF THE
ROCKIES. A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE NEAR KGLD. DECREASING
CLOUDS SHOULD OCCUR AFTER MIDNIGHT AS DYNAMICS MOVE EAST.

FS
&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
NE...NONE.
CO...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
140 PM MDT TUE AUG 18 2009

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-191830-
YUMA-KIT CARSON-CHEYENNE CO-CHEYENNE KS-RAWLINS-DECATUR-NORTON-
SHERMAN-THOMAS-SHERIDAN-GRAHAM-WALLACE-LOGAN-GOVE-GREELEY-WICHITA-
DUNDY-HITCHCOCK-RED WILLOW-
140 PM MDT TUE AUG 18 2009 /240 PM CDT TUE AUG 18 2009/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EXTREME SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA...NORTHWEST KANSAS AND EAST CENTRAL COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AS
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA WITH A FEW
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO DURING THE AFTERNOON AND SPREAD
ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA IN THE EVENING. LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING
WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THESE STORMS.

A BRIEF TORNADO IS ALSO POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EARLY
EVENING...MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A YUMA TO RUSSEL SPRINGS LINE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE
EVENING.

JRM