Severe Thunderstorm Warning 15, NWS Goodland, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
107 AM MDT THU APR 30 2009

.DISCUSSION...
107 AM MDT THU APR 30 2009

ONE CLOSED LOW WAS LOCATED OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WHILE A SECOND
REMAINED OVER THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN/PAC NW REGION EARLY THIS
MORNING. DEEP MOIST CONVECTION WAS ONGOING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA WHILE A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SAG
SOUTH OVER THE FORECAST AREA.

MORNING CONVECTION WILL BE ONGOING WITH SUBSIDENCE/CLEARING EXPECTED
DURING THE AFTERNOON RESULTING IN SEASONABLE HIGHS IN THE 60S.

A PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT KEEPING
LOW POPS IN THE FORECAST.

FRI-SAT...POST-FRONTAL CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS THROUGH THE PERIOD
AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRANSLATES EAST AND APPROACHES THE AREA. THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST CAPTURED THE EXPECTED SCENARIO WITH ONLY MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS PLANNED.

DAYS 4 THROUGH 7...NO CHANGES.

&&

.AVIATION...
1110 PM MDT WED APR 29 2009

FOR THE 06Z TAFS...VERY ACTIVE AND UNCERTAIN PERIOD. COLD FRONT IS
SLOWLY PUSHING SOUTH OVER THE AREA. NOT SURE HOW FAR SOUTH DEVELOPMENT
WILL BE BUT TSRA LOOK TO STAY JUST TO THE EAST OF KGLD. KMCK
SHOULD CATCH THE BRUNT OF THIS THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX. MODELS ARE
DIFFERING ON THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER AND HEIGHT OF CEILINGS.
SHOULD SEE MVFR CEILINGS THIS MORNING AND RAISING ABOVE MVFR
DURING THE AFTERNOON.

BULLER
&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
NE...NONE.
CO...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1045 AM MDT WED APR 29 2009

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-301200-
YUMA-KIT CARSON-CHEYENNE CO-CHEYENNE KS-RAWLINS-DECATUR-NORTON-
SHERMAN-THOMAS-SHERIDAN-GRAHAM-WALLACE-LOGAN-GOVE-GREELEY-WICHITA-
DUNDY-HITCHCOCK-RED WILLOW-
1045 AM MDT WED APR 29 2009 /1145 AM CDT WED APR 29 2009/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EXTREME SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA...NORTHWEST KANSAS AND EAST CENTRAL COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
THE TRI STATE AREA. COVERAGE WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED BEFORE
SUNSET...BUT ANY STORM THAT DEVELOPS COULD PRODUCE LARGE HAIL...
DAMAGING WINDS...AND PERHAPS A TORNADO.

THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL INCREASE TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 70. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL DECREASE AS THE
NIGHT WEARS ON...WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND SMALL HAIL THE PRIMARY
THREATS AFTER MIDNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1127 PM MDT WED APR 29 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1115 PM     HAIL             7 SW CLARKVILLE         40.31N 102.71W
04/29/2009  M1.75 INCH       YUMA               CO   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

MWM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1238 AM MDT THU APR 30 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1230 AM     HAIL             6 NW WRAY               40.14N 102.31W
04/30/2009  E1.75 INCH       YUMA               CO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            GOLF BALL SIZED HAIL BROKE A WINDOW

&&

BLM

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
130 AM MDT THU APR 30 2009

NEZ080-081-300830-
HITCHCOCK-RED WILLOW-
230 AM CDT THU APR 30 2009

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GOODLAND HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR HITCHCOCK COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND RED
WILLOW COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...

AT 229 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR CULBERTSON...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

PENNY SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

BE PREPARED TO TAKE SHELTER IN THE EVENT THESE STORMS INTENSIFY AND
BECOME SEVERE.

MCGUIRE

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