Severe Thunderstorm Warning 129, NWS Goodland, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
122 PM MDT FRI JUL 17 2009

.SHORT TERM... (TONIGHT - MONDAY)
122 PM MDT FRI JUL 17 2009

FORECAST PROBLEM WILL BE POPS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR/SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL DUE TO CLOUD COVER
AND MOIST SOIL CONDITIONS.

CONVECTION CONTINUES TO FIRE THIS AFTERNOON ALONG MID LEVEL
BAROCLINIC ZONE IN KANSAS/NEBRASKA. APPEARS STORMS MAY BE SLIGHTLY
ELEVATED WITH MORNING CLOUD COVER...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO POSE A
WIND/HAIL THREAT AS THEY MOVE SOUTH. ADDITIONAL STORMS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE CHEYENNE RIDGE IN WYOMING/COLORADO AND MOVE
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST INTO THE WESTERN AREAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING. DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES OF OVER 50KTS WILL SUPPORT
SUPERCELLS IN THAT AREA. MAY SEE A BRIEF LULL IN ACTIVITY BETWEEN
03/06Z...BUT BAROCLINICITY SHARPENS UP ONCE AGAIN AFTER 09Z ACROSS
THE SOUTHWEST ZONES...AND EXPECT ELEVATED CONVECTION TO REDEVELOP AT
THAT TIME AND PERSIST INTO SATURDAY MORNING. ACTION SHOULD SHIFT
SOUTH INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...ENDING FOR THE MOST PART IN THE LOCAL AREA BY
00Z...ALTHOUGH WILL HAVE SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS BETWEEN 00Z/06Z TO
ACCOUNT FOR ANY STRAY STORMS COMING OUT OF COLORADO.

SUNDAY LOOKS LIKE A MORE TYPICAL DAY WITH WIDELY SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER EASTERN COLORADO WITH HEATING...THEN
MIGRATING EASTWARD IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. WILL
CARRY SLIGHT/LOW CHANCE POPS WEIGHTED IN THE WEST.

MONDAY WILL BE ANOTHER ACTIVE DAY FOR CONVECTION. COLD FRONT
FORECAST TO BE DRAPED ACROSS THE HEART OF THE FORECAST AREA BY MID
AFTERNOON. SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE ROUNDING THE RIDGE AXIS AND
MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW AT THAT TIME. WILL BUMP UP POPS TO
MIDRANGE CHANCE CATEGORY AS THESE FACTORS SHOULD RESULT IN AT LEAST
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.

.LONG TERM... (TUESDAY - FRIDAY)
120 PM MDT FRI JUL 17 2009

LITTLE CHANGE FORECAST IN THE UPPER PATTERN THIS PERIOD...WITH A
LARGE ANTICYCLONE NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS AND TROUGH NEAR THE GREAT
LAKES. CENTRAL PLAINS WILL BE UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW. POST FRONTAL
UPSLOPE REGIME WILL BE IN PLACE TO START THE PERIOD IN THE WAKE OF A
FRONTAL PASSAGE SCHEDULED FOR MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...SO SHOULD SEE
STORMS FIRE ON THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND MIGRATE EASTWARD. SURFACE FLOW
WILL GRADUALLY VEER TO SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE PERIOD...AS NEXT FRONT LOOKS TO BE HUNG UP IN THE FAR NORTHERN
PLAINS. WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS SHOULD ALLOW FOR DAILY THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES WITH SURFACE HEATING...ENHANCED BY ANY WEAK DISTURBANCE IN
THE NORTHWEST FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
1143 AM MDT FRI JUL 17 2009

FOR THE 18Z TAFS...SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL MOVE SOUTH THROUGH
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA/NORTHWEST KANSAS THROUGH MID AFTERNOON.
SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

AT KMCK...ONE SUPERCELL WILL MISS KMCK TO THE WEST...BUT LIGHT RAIN
AND A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES NEAR THE TERMINAL WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH 21Z.

AT KGLD...LOW CLOUDS WILL SCATTER OUT SHORTLY...THEN THUNDERSTORMS
WILL APPROACH THE TERMINAL AREA FROM THE NORTH AROUND 20Z OR
SO...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A SUPERCELL WITH HAIL AND STRONG WINDS.
WILL MONITOR FOR TAF UPDATES.

024
&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
NE...NONE.
CO...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1040 AM MDT FRI JUL 17 2009

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-181500-
YUMA-KIT CARSON-CHEYENNE CO-CHEYENNE KS-RAWLINS-DECATUR-NORTON-
SHERMAN-THOMAS-SHERIDAN-GRAHAM-WALLACE-LOGAN-GOVE-GREELEY-WICHITA-
DUNDY-HITCHCOCK-RED WILLOW-
1040 AM MDT FRI JUL 17 2009 /1140 AM CDT FRI JUL 17 2009/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EXTREME SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA...NORTHWEST KANSAS AND EAST CENTRAL COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE SEVERE...WITH LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY THREATS.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT...PRIMARILY IN WESTERN AREAS. LARGE HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY ANY
THUNDERSTORM TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THE
BEST CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR SATURDAY MORNING AND AGAIN
ON MONDAY...AND A FEW OF THOSE MAY BE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS. OTHERWISE...STORMS WILL BE WIDELY SCATTERED AND
OCCUR MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...WITH THE PRIMARY
HAZARD BEING LIGHTNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED TODAY AND TONIGHT.

024

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
149 PM MDT FRI JUL 17 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0148 PM     HAIL             4 W OAKLEY              39.13N 100.93W
07/17/2009  E1.75 INCH       LOGAN              KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

024

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
159 PM MDT FRI JUL 17 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0158 PM     HAIL             OAKLEY                  39.13N 100.85W
07/17/2009  E1.50 INCH       LOGAN              KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

024

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
200 PM MDT FRI JUL 17 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0158 PM     HAIL             1 W OAKLEY              39.13N 100.87W
07/17/2009  E1.75 INCH       LOGAN              KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

024