Severe Thunderstorm Warning 280, NWS Fort Worth, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
646 PM CDT WED JUN 10 2009

.UPDATE...
SEVERE STORM COMPLEX NOW PUSHING I-35 CORRIDOR...WITH LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING
WINDS TO 70 MPH...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES POSSIBLE. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES IS POSSIBLE...YET ANY FLASH FLOODING SHOULD WOULD
BE ISOLATED AND CURRENT FORWARD STORM MOTION WOULD INDICATE SUCH. DEFINITELY
SOME URBAN/SMALL STREAM FLOODING IS EXPECTED ACROSS URBAN AREAS WITH
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE/PWAT NEAR 2 INCHES.

WE HAVE REMOVED JACK...YOUNG...STEPHENS COUNTIES...BUT ADDED COUNTIES
TO THE WATCH SOUTH THROUGH MILLS...MCLENNAN...OVER TO ANDERSON COUNTIES.

FORECAST UPDATE IS OUT...MORE UPDATES LIKELY TO BE FORTHCOMING.

05/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 322 PM CDT WED JUN 10 2009/
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS ACROSS NORTH TEXAS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTHWEST. THE LATEST SPC MESOANAYSIS SHOWS THE CAP HAS JUST ABOUT
LIFTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION AND SURFACE BASED CAPE REMAINS BETWEEN
2000 AND 3500 J/KG. THE BEST CHANCE OF SEVERE STORMS WILL BE IN
THE NORTHWEST ZONES WHERE SURFACE CONVERGENCE WILL BE MAXIMIZED
ALONG THE COLD FRONT. EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHERN ZONES. AT THIS TIME
IT APPEARS THAT HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.
HOWEVER...A DRY LAYER BETWEEN 900 AND 700 MB SHOULD ALSO PROMOTE
EVAPORATIVE COOLING AND DOWNBURST WIND POTENTIAL.

THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND LIFT NORTHWARD THURSDAY
WITH A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE REGION. THE NAM CONTINUES TO INDICATE A SHORT
WAVE THURSDAY NIGHT WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EAST. THE
GFS IS MUCH WEAKER WITH THIS FEATURE...BUT BASED ON THE
FORECASTED INSTABILITY...WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST.

WARMER AIR AND RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
STRENGTHENS OVER THE REGION. UNFORTUNATELY...LOW LEVEL HUMIDITY
WILL REMAIN HIGH AND AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL SURPASS THE
CENTURY MARK IN MANY LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

LOOKING AHEAD...IT APPEARS THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BE SLOW TO DEPART
AND WARM/HUMID/RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

79

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  72  96  77  97  76 /  80  20  30  10  10
WACO, TX              74  97  77  99  77 /  30  20  20  10  10
PARIS, TX             71  91  73  95  74 /  70  30  40  10  20
DENTON, TX            70  95  73  98  75 /  80  30  30  10  10
MCKINNEY, TX          71  94  74  98  74 /  80  30  40  10  20
DALLAS, TX            74  96  79  99  80 /  80  20  30  10  10
TERRELL, TX           73  95  76  98  76 /  70  20  40  10  10
CORSICANA, TX         75  94  76  97  76 /  40  20  30  10  10
TEMPLE, TX            75  96  76  98  75 /  20  10  20  10   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

91/05

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
702 PM CDT WED JUN 10 2009

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-111200-
MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-
HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS-
ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-VAN ZANDT-RAINS-EASTLAND-ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL-
JOHNSON-ELLIS-HENDERSON-COMANCHE-MILLS-HAMILTON-BOSQUE-HILL-NAVARRO-
FREESTONE-ANDERSON-LAMPASAS-CORYELL-BELL-MCLENNAN-FALLS-LIMESTONE-
LEON-MILAM-ROBERTSON-
702 PM CDT WED JUN 10 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTAINING LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS TO
80 MPH... LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TO TWO INCHES CAUSING MINOR
FLOODING...AND A FEW TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE MAJORITY OF
NORTH TEXAS...MAINLY THIS EVENING...AS A WEAK FRONT AND UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE AFFECT THE AREA. AREAS EAST OF INTERSTATE 35
COULD STILL SEE A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT...YET
STORMS WILL EXIT NORTH TEXAS WELL BEFORE DAYBREAK THURSDAY...AS
THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE EXITS TO THE EAST.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY
AND THURSDAY NIGHT. A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE...
PRODUCING
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

DRY WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. A WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN ON FRIDAY WHICH WILL RESULT IN
HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE 100 TO 105 DEGREE RANGE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND MAINLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS HIGHLY LIKELY ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF NORTH
TEXAS.

05/

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