Flash Flood Warning 48, NWS Fort Worth, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
757 AM CDT THU JUN 11 2009

.UPDATE...
ANOTHER UPDATE TO EXTEND WATCH 372 UNTIL 10 AM AND CANCEL WATCH
373. ALSO INCLUDED YOUNG...DENTON...COLLIN...AND ROCKWALL
COUNTIES. APPEARS THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG A
LINE FROM ATHENS TO DALLAS TO GRAHAM FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE
LOW LEVEL JET CONTINUES TO FEED INTO THIS AREA JUST SOUTH OF A
SURFACE BOUNDARY AND FLASH FLOODING STILL LOOKS TO BE THE MAIN THREAT.
A NEW WATCH BOX MAY BE NEEDED AT 10 AM.

82/JLD

&&

.AVIATION...
STRONG STORMS STILL ONGOING JUST NORTH OF THE METROPLEX TAF SITES.
CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY SHOWING NO SIGNS OF CONTINUING TO BACK
BUILD AND SHOULD BE AWAY FROM KFTW AND KAFW BY 13Z AND THROUGH
KDFW AND KDAL BY 14Z. OVERNIGHT RAIN HAS SATURATED THE LOW LEVELS
OF THE ATMOSPHERE CAUSING CIGS TO BOUNCE IN AND OUT OF MVFR CONDS
AND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH MID-MORNING. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS
LOCATED NEAR THE RED RIVER WITH LIFR AND IFR CIGS ARE ALONG AND
BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. DO NOT ANTICIPATE THESE TO MOVE INTO THE TAF
SITES BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON AND HAVE INTRODUCED A VCTS
GROUP IN THE METROPLEX TAF SITES FOR 22Z-03Z THIS EVENING.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON HOW AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL PLAY OUT AND FURTHER
TAF ISSUANCE WILL FINE TUNE FORECAST.

85/NH

&&

.PREV UPDATE...
.UPDATE...
UPDATED GRIDS TO REFLECT ONGOING PRECIPITATION TRENDS. ADJUSTED POPS
THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND INCLUDED NEW SEVERE WATCH 373 IN THE
SOUTHEAST.

82/JLD

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 404 AM CDT THU JUN 11 2009/
ANOTHER LINE OF STRONG AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS HAS ERUPTED OVER
THE METROPLEX IN THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS STRETCHING FROM SOUTHERN
WISE COUNTY INTO HENDERSON COUNTY. FLASH FLOODING IS BECOMING THE
MAIN THREAT AS THESE STORMS ARE EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS AND ARE
TRAINING OVER THE SAME AREA. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH BOX
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CWA
THOUGH 8 AM. SOME SMALL HAIL AND ISOLATED HIGH WINDS ARE ALSO
BEING REPORTED WITH THESE STORMS.

PERSISTENT ZONAL PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TODAY WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER CENTRAL MEXICO. EMBEDDED IMPULSES AND
SHORTWAVES IN THE UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW WILL TRANSGRESS THE
REGION AND ANOTHER MCS IS POSSIBLE LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.
INSTABILITY WILL AGAIN BE HIGH TODAY AND SEVERE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED. ABUNDANT MOISTURE WITH PWATS OF 1.5-2 INCHES WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE SO THE THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING WILL CONTINUE
WITH ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP LATER TODAY. CANNOT PIN POINT EXACTLY
WHEN AND WHERE THUNDERSTORMS OR MCS WILL DEVELOP SO WILL CARRY 30
POPS AREAWIDE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS AS PERSISTENT SYNOPTIC PATTERN CONTINUES.
THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE AS WELL.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS STILL FORECAST TO BUILD OVER THE REGION BY
MONDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 90S AND TRIPLE DIGITS.
DID NOT MAKE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED AT THIS
TIME...BUT THE GFS TRIES TO PUSH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE INTO THE
SOUTHEAST CONUS DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER
THE WESTERN CONUS WHILE THE ECMWF HOLDS THE RIDGE STRONGLY OVER
THE REGION.

82/JLD

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  95  75  98  78 101 /  70  30  20  20  20
WACO, TX              94  76 100  78 102 /  30  30  20  20  20
PARIS, TX             91  72  96  75  96 /  30  30  20  20  20
DENTON, TX            95  72  98  76 100 /  50  30  20  20  20
MCKINNEY, TX          93  72  98  75  97 /  50  30  20  20  20
DALLAS, TX            96  77 100  80 102 /  80  30  20  20  20
TERRELL, TX           92  72  97  76  97 /  80  30  20  20  20
CORSICANA, TX         96  76  98  77 100 /  80  30  20  20  20
TEMPLE, TX            96  76  99  76 101 /  30  30  20  20  20

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

85/82

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
621 AM CDT THU JUN 11 2009

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-121200-
MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-
HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS-
ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-VAN ZANDT-RAINS-EASTLAND-ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL-
JOHNSON-ELLIS-HENDERSON-COMANCHE-MILLS-HAMILTON-BOSQUE-HILL-NAVARRO-
FREESTONE-ANDERSON-LAMPASAS-CORYELL-BELL-MCLENNAN-FALLS-LIMESTONE-
LEON-MILAM-ROBERTSON-
621 AM CDT THU JUN 11 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.
THERE CONTINUES TO BE A CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT
WITH LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND FLASH FLOOD THE MAIN
THREATS. AN ISOLATED TORNADO IS ALSO POSSIBLE. ANOTHER LINE OF
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MAY DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY IN
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP.

HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL REACH THE TRIPLE DIGITS IN SCATTERED
LOCATIONS BEGINNING THIS WEEKEND AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEK.
HEAT INDEX VALUES AT TIMES MAY REACH AS HIGH AS 105 TO 110 DEGREES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUESTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

82/JLD

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