Flash Flood Warning 96, NWS Fort Worth, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
616 PM CDT WED OCT 21 2009

.AVIATION...
WV LOOP SHOWS SYSTEM SPINNING OVER NE NM/SE CO WITH NEAR
CONTINUOUS RAIN...SOME SHOWERS...AND MAYBE AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS (NON- SEVERE) SPREADING ACROSS THE HEART OF TEXAS AS
STRONG SYNOPTIC LIFT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. CIGS WILL BE
BOUNCING AROUND THIS EVENING...BUT FEEL IT IS BEST TO KEEP THEM
IFR ACROSS THE KDFW TRACON UNTIL 05Z. KACT TRACON MAY SEE SOME IFR
CIGS/VIS...BUT LOW MVFR IS BEST CALL ATTM. LATE TONIGHT... A
BROKEN LINE OF TSRA EXPECTED TO PROCEED/ALONG THE COLD FRONT AS IT
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION 08-14Z. EXPECTED MVFR CIGS/VIS AS THE COLD
FRONT ARRIVES AND JUST AFTER...THEN TRENDING TO VFR CIGS AROUND
5KFT IN THE LATE MORNING. TURNING VFR WITH NORTHWEST WINDS 15G25
THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON HOURS. 75

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 302 PM CDT WED OCT 21 2009/
WET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT AS STRONG
LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES AHEAD OF S/W TROF THAT WILL
MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT. LARGE AREA OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL
CONTINUES ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 35 WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM SURFACE LOW ACROSS
WESTERN OKLAHOMA INTO WEST CENTRAL TEXAS. WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA
IS GETTING A BREAK IN THE RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THIS AREA
SHOULD FILL IN THIS EVENING...WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL AND
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS ALL OF NORTH TEXAS
TONIGHT. WILL CONTINUE WITH 100 POPS FOR MOST OF THE AREA TONIGHT.
COLD FRONT SHOULD BE APPROACHING THE METROPLEX AROUND MIDNIGHT OR
SHORTLY THEREAFTER WITH RAIN COMING TO AN END BEHIND THE SYSTEM
FROM WEST TO EAST.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT. SEVERAL
AREAS HAVE ALREADY PICKED UP BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES OF RAIN...WITH
AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN EXPECTED LATER THIS EVENING
AND TONIGHT. AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF I-35 WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST
THREAT FOR FLOODING. THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES TO BE
LOW. LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS MODEST BUT DEEP SURFACE BASED CONVECTION
IS UNLIKELY GIVEN VERY WEAK INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION.

RAIN CHANCES END BY LATE IN THE MORNING THURSDAY ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA AS THE FRONT CLEARS THE AREA. HIGHS SHOULD
REMAIN IN THE LOW TO MID 60S WITH NORTHWEST WINDS. TEMPS WILL WARM
INTO THE 70S THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH THE NEXT
DISTURBANCE CROSSING THE AREA TOWARD THE LATTER PART OF THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. WILL MAINTAIN THE 20 POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR
LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  58  64  46  70  48 / 100  20   5   5   5
WACO, TX              60  67  49  72  48 / 100  30   5   5   5
PARIS, TX             61  64  42  64  44 / 100  60  10   5   5
DENTON, TX            55  64  43  68  43 / 100  20   5   5   5
MCKINNEY, TX          58  64  44  67  44 / 100  30  10   5   5
DALLAS, TX            59  64  47  71  50 / 100  20   5   5   5
TERRELL, TX           61  65  46  70  46 / 100  40  10   5   5
CORSICANA, TX         63  67  46  70  48 / 100  50  10   5   5
TEMPLE, TX            62  68  48  71  47 / 100  30   5   5   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR TXZ091>095-102>107-
117>123-131>135-144>148-157>162-174-175.

&&

75/

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
252 PM CDT WED OCT 21 2009

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-221200-
MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-
HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS-
ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-VAN ZANDT-RAINS-EASTLAND-ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL-
JOHNSON-ELLIS-HENDERSON-COMANCHE-MILLS-HAMILTON-BOSQUE-HILL-NAVARRO-
FREESTONE-ANDERSON-LAMPASAS-CORYELL-BELL-MCLENNAN-FALLS-LIMESTONE-
LEON-MILAM-ROBERTSON-
252 PM CDT WED OCT 21 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING ALONG
AND EAST OF A LINE FROM BOWIE...TO WEATHERFORD...TO COPPERAS COVE.

AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT AFFECT THE
REGION TONIGHT...HEAVY RAINFALL ISL LIKELY...WITH TOTALS OF 1 TO 3
INCHES ARE EXPECTED...WITH ISOLATED TOTALS MAY EXCEED 4 INCHES.
SOILS ARE ALREADY SATURATED FROM PREVIOUS RAINFALL...SO ANY HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL LIKELY RUN OFF AND RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.

THE SEVERE THREAT APPEARS LOW...THOUGH A STRONG STORM OR TWO EMBEDDED
IN THE WIDESPREAD RAIN IS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST ON THURSDAY AS A COLD
FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH NORTH TEXAS. SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY
STILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR EASTERN NORTH TEXAS THROUGH MID-MORNING.

LOW THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL RETURN SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...AS ANOTHER
COLD FRONT AND DISTURBANCE ALOFT AFFECT THE AREA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

LIMITED SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUESTED OVERNIGHT FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL AND FLOOD REPORTS.

05/

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
604 PM CDT WED OCT 21 2009

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0601 PM     FLASH FLOOD      HALTOM CITY             32.80N  97.27W
10/21/2009                   TARRANT            TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TWO VEHICLES STUCK IN HIGH WATER. RESCUE IN PROGRESS.
            ROAD BEING CLOSED.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
610 PM CDT WED OCT 21 2009

CORRECTED CITY AND LAT.LON

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0601 PM     FLASH FLOOD      FORT WORTH              32.79N  97.34W
10/21/2009                   TARRANT            TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TWO VEHICLES STUCK IN HIGH WATER. RESCUE IN PROGRESS.
            ROAD BEING CLOSED.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
619 PM CDT WED OCT 21 2009

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0605 PM     FLASH FLOOD      FORT WORTH              32.75N  97.34W
10/21/2009                   TARRANT            TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            CAR STALLED...ROAD CLOSING ON NORTH SIDE DRIVE AT COLD
            SPRINGS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
624 PM CDT WED OCT 21 2009

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0623 PM     FLASH FLOOD      WATAUGA                 32.85N  97.27W
10/21/2009                   TARRANT            TX   NWS EMPLOYEE

            MULTILPLE ROADS CLOSED DUE TO HIGH WATER IN WATAGUA