Flash Flood Warning 26, NWS Fort Worth, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
722 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2009

.AVIATION...
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS EAST AND NORTH OF THE METROPLEX AIRPORTS
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST NORTHEAST. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN DECATUR /KLUD/ AND COMANCHE /KMNZ/ WILL
SPREAD EAST NORTHEAST...AFFECTING THE METROPLEX TAF SITES THROUGH
04Z. A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDED FROM JUST WEST OF PARIS
/KPRX/...TO SOUTHEAST OF WAXAHACHIE /KJWY/ TO SOUTHEAST OF LLANO
/KAQO/ WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHEAST. THIS FRONT SHOULD
MOVE THROUGH WACO AIRPORT AROUND 06Z. NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS
AROUND 10 KNOTS WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE FRONT. EXPECT IFR TO LOW
END MVFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON SUNDAY. THE
RAIN SHOULD END EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH CEILINGS IMPROVING
TO VFR AFTER 21Z.

58

&&

.UPDATE...
NEW ZONE PACKAGE ISSUED ADDING TOR 228 AND REMOVING TOR 225 & 226.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN AFFECT UNTIL LATE SUNDAY MORNING.

HAVE TRIMMED POPS NORTHWEST...WEST AND SOUTHERN AREAS FOR THE
FIRST PART OF THE EVENING AND WEST THROUGH NORTHWEST MID EVENING
THROUGH THROUGH MIDNIGHT.

STILL EXPECTING SOME ADDITIONAL DEVELOP THIS EVENING TO TRACK
NORTHEAST ACROSS AREAS HIT EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON. BEFORE
MIDNIGHT...THERE STILL REMAINS A CONCERN FOR DEVELOPMENT TO THE
SOUTH OF THE METROPLEX THAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MIDNIGHT AND
INTO THE LATE NIGHT HOURS AS THE FRONT PUSH SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT.

ATMOSPHERE STILL VERY UNSTABLE DOWN SOUTH SO SEVERE POTENTIAL...
INCLUDING TORNADOES AND ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING...WILL CONTINUE BEYOND
MIDNIGHT.

75

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 342 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2009/
CONVECTION ORGANIZING INTO MCS ACROSS EASTERN PART OF DFW METROPLEX
AT THIS TIME WILL CONTINUE MOVING EAST AND NORTHEAST LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WILL KEEP FLASH FLOOD WATCH AREA
UNCHANGED...BUT WILL END THE WATCH BY NOON ON SUNDAY WITH SLIGHTLY
FASTER PROGRESSION OF SHORTWAVE HELPING TO END HEAVY RAIN THREAT
SUNDAY MORNING.

NEARLY ALL OF THE SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON HAS BEEN
OCCURRING JUST BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HOWEVER...AXIS OF
STRONG INSTABILITY AND MODERATELY STRONG MASS CONVERGENCE STILL
ARGUES FOR DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE FRONT AS FAR SOUTH AS HILLSBORO
AND WACO BY THIS EVENING. ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP NEAR THE FRONT
IN THESE AREAS WOULD LIKELY BECOME SEVERE...WITH TORNADO BOX 226
CONTINUING ACROSS MOST OF THAT AREA THROUGH 7 PM CDT.

CONTINUED RE-DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY
BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY
MOVES INTO WEST TEXAS. COVERAGE OF THE LATE NIGHT ACTIVITY LIKELY
TO BE GREATEST ACROSS AREAS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20.

DRY WEATHER EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS DRIER
AIR SPREADS INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT AND UPPER SYSTEM. THE
COOLEST NIGHT IS FORECAST FOR SUNDAY NIGHT WITH 50S EXPECTED IN
MOST AREAS BY MONDAY MORNING.

NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE TUES AFTN INTO WEDNESDAY AND AGAIN
LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.   09

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  60  71  55  76  61 /  90  70   5   0   0
WACO, TX              63  77  57  77  62 /  90  60  10   0   0
PARIS, TX             59  68  53  73  56 / 100  80  10   0   0
DENTON, TX            58  69  53  75  60 /  80  70   5   0   0
MCKINNEY, TX          59  70  55  75  59 / 100  70  10   0   0
DALLAS, TX            60  71  56  76  61 / 100  70  10   0   0
TERRELL, TX           61  71  57  75  59 / 100  80  10   0   0
CORSICANA, TX         63  75  58  77  59 /  90  70  10   0   0
TEMPLE, TX            65  79  60  79  63 /  60  50  10   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR TXZ091>095-100>107-
115>123.

&&

58/75

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
400 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2009

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-031100-
MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-
HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS-
ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-VAN ZANDT-RAINS-EASTLAND-ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL-
JOHNSON-ELLIS-HENDERSON-COMANCHE-MILLS-HAMILTON-BOSQUE-HILL-NAVARRO-
FREESTONE-ANDERSON-LAMPASAS-CORYELL-BELL-MCLENNAN-FALLS-LIMESTONE-
LEON-MILAM-ROBERTSON-
400 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THROUGH TONIGHT.
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTH TEXAS
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND
HEAVY RAIN WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS. IN ADDITION...THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR A STORM TO BECOME TORNADIC...PARTICULARLY NEAR OR
SOUTH OF A SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. THE GREATEST LIKELIHOOD OF
HEAVY RAIN WILL BE NORTHEAST OF THE DALLAS/FORT WORTH METROPLEX.
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF
THE I-20 CORRIDOR.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
THE THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
CONTINUE ON SUNDAY...WITH THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINING IN
EFFECT THROUGH NOON. THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL RAPIDLY COME TO AN END
SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN TO THE FORECAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AND
CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH NORTH TEXAS. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL RETURN AGAIN
IN TIME FOR THE WEEKEND.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE REQUESTED THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS.

25

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