Flash Flood Warning 113, NWS Fort Worth, TX

000 
WGUS74 KFWD 260651
FFSFWD

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
151 AM CDT MON OCT 26 2009

TXC119-223-277-260745-
/O.CON.KFWD.FF.W.0113.000000T0000Z-091026T0745Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
LAMAR TX-DELTA TX-HOPKINS TX-
151 AM CDT MON OCT 26 2009

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 245 AM CDT FOR
HOPKINS...DELTA AND LAMAR COUNTIES...

AT 151 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED
  THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN 6 MILES NORTHWEST OF COOPER...MOVING
  EAST AT 30 MPH. RADAR INDICATES THAT 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN HAS
  ALREADY FALLEN. ANOTHER 1 TO 2 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH     
  245 AM CDT.

SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL CONTINUE TO BE AFFECTED BY HEAVY RAIN
INCLUDE COOPER...COOPER LAKE PARK DOCTORS CREEK...SULPHUR SPRINGS...
COOPER LAKE PARK SOUTH SULPHUR...COMO...PARIS...BLOSSOM AND DEPORT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS HARDER TO RECOGNIZE THE
DANGERS OF FLASH FLOODS. IT IS VERY DIFFICULT AT NIGHT TO TELL HOW
MUCH WATER IS ON THE ROADS. IT ONLY TAKES TWO FEET OF RUSHING WATER
TO CARRY AWAY MOST SPORT UTILITY VEHICLES AND PICKUPS. MOTORISTS
SHOULD NOT DRIVE THROUGH WATER OF UNKNOWN DEPTH. TAKE A DIFFERENT
ROUTE TO REACH YOUR DESTINATION OR WAIT UNTIL THE WATER RECEDES.

&&

LAT...LON 3391 9554 3388 9545 3387 9534 3390 9534
      3388 9529 3297 9530 3296 9532 3299 9586
      3385 9585 3386 9578 3390 9574 3390 9570
      3392 9564 3396 9559

$$


82/JLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1056 PM CDT SUN OCT 25 2009

.UPDATE...
WILL ISSUE A QUICK UPDATE TO CLEAR 8 OF THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES
FROM THE WATCH. THE SEVERE THREAT BEHIND THE SQUALL LINE IS DIMINISHING.
WILL ALSO MAKE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENT TO THE HOURLY GRIDS BASED ON
CURRENT TRENDS.

79

&&

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 00Z TAFS...MVFR WITH PERIODS OF POSSIBLE IFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THRU THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO NORTH
TEXAS. SPED UP THE TIMING OF THE WIND SHIFT A FEW HRS AS THE
PREFRONTAL TROUGH WILL EFFECTIVELY VEER WINDS AROUND TO THE
NORTHWEST WELL AHEAD OF THE TRUE COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT
ITSELF...THE DEEPER COLD AIR SITUATED OVER THE TX PANHANDLE EAST
INTO WESTERN OK ATM WILL NOT MAKE MUCH DIFFERENCE IN WIND
DIRECTION...BUT MAY CAUSE WIND SPEEDS TO INCREASE A FEW KTS AS IT
MOVES THRU. AS THE PREFRONTAL TROUGH MOVES THRU...INCREASING
CONFIDENCE IN A LINE OF CONVECTION MOVING INTO METROPLEX TAF SITES
IN THE 05 TO 09Z TIME FRAME. SHOULD SEE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL
WITHIN THIS WINDOW...AND LIKELY THE WORST FLIGHT CATEGORIES AS
WELL. 21 AND 22Z LAMP GUIDANCE WAS BECOMING MORE OPTIMISTIC ABOUT
PREVAILING CIG HEIGHTS...SO KEPT PREVAILING CIGS JUST ABOVE IFR
LVLS FOR NOW. IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS LIKELY WHEN HEAVIER RAIN MOVES
OVER THE METROPLEX. THE TRUE COLD FRONT STILL LOOKS TO MOVE THRU
AROUND 09Z...AND AFTER IT MOVES THRU EXPECT TO SEE A DECREASE IN
OVERALL INTENSITY OF RAIN SHOWERS/TSTMS AS DEEPER COLD AIR INVADES
THE REGION. WITH THE UPPER TROUGH HOLDING OFF TO THE WEST FOR THE
NEXT 24 HRS...THINK THAT AFT 09Z WE WILL SEE ON AND OFF RAIN
SHOWER ACTIVITY THRU THE DAY ON MONDAY...POSSIBLY INTO MONDAY
EVENING.

TONIGHT...MVFR. PERIODS OF IFR/LIFR ASSOCIATED WITH PRECIPITATION
MOVING OVER TAF SITES.

MONDAY...MVFR. ON AND OFF RAIN POSSIBLE ALL DAY.

MONDAY NIGHT...MVFR. RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH FROM
WEST TO EAST.

CAVANAUGH

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 250 PM CDT SUN OCT 25 2009/
LOOKS LIKE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN IN THE NORTHWEST THIS
EVENING...AND TRANSITION SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT. FLASH FLOODING
STILL APPEARS TO BE THE MAIN THREAT...BUT A FEW STRONG STORMS MAY
DEVELOP THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. STORM TOTAL QPF RUNS UP
TO OVER 3 INCHES IN EASTERN COUNTIES...AND THAT AMOUNT OF WATER
SHOULD PRODUCE AT LEAST LOCALIZED FLOODING AND RIVER FLOODING AS
WELL.

GFS HANGS ONTO PRECIPITATION THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON...UNTIL
AFTER THE UPPER LOW TRANSITIONS NORTHEAST OF THE AREA...AND I
HAVE KEPT POPS THROUGH 1 PM. COVERAGE IS LIKELY TO BE
SCATTERED...SO I UNDERCUT THE GFS LIKELY POPS WITH CHANCE P0PS.
WINDS SWITCH BACK TO SOUTH LATE TUESDAY AHEAD OF THURSDAY/S COLD
FRONT. AGAIN PRECIP APPEARS LIKELY...BUT AFTER THAT SYSTEM
TRANSITIONS THROUGH NORTH TEXAS LOOKS DRY THROUGH DAY 7.   84

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  55  59  50  70  56 / 100  90  50  20  10
WACO, TX              61  61  50  71  58 / 100 100  50  10  10
PARIS, TX             56  60  49  62  53 / 100 100  60  40  10
DENTON, TX            53  57  49  69  56 / 100  80  40  20  10
MCKINNEY, TX          55  59  49  68  54 / 100  90  50  20  10
DALLAS, TX            56  59  50  69  56 / 100  90  50  20  10
TERRELL, TX           57  61  49  68  56 / 100 100  60  20  10
CORSICANA, TX         60  60  49  70  57 /  90 100  60  20  10
TEMPLE, TX            62  62  48  72  58 /  90 100  50   5  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR TXZ091>095-102>107-
117>123-131>135-142>148-156>162-174-175.

&&

69/79

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
806 PM CDT SUN OCT 25 2009

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-270115-
MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-
HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS-
ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-VAN ZANDT-RAINS-EASTLAND-ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL-
JOHNSON-ELLIS-HENDERSON-COMANCHE-MILLS-HAMILTON-BOSQUE-HILL-NAVARRO-
FREESTONE-ANDERSON-LAMPASAS-CORYELL-BELL-MCLENNAN-FALLS-LIMESTONE-
LEON-MILAM-ROBERTSON-
806 PM CDT SUN OCT 25 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR AREAS GENERALLY
ALONG AND NORTH OF A COMANCHE TO ATHENS LINE THROUGH 1 AM CDT. THE
PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS LARGE HAIL...HOWEVER DAMAGING
OUTFLOW WINDS AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THE
OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AFTER 1 AM
CDT.

ANY THUNDERSTORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL WHICH
MAY LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL THROUGHOUT THE OVERNIGHT HRS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

AREAS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE ACROSS NORTH TEXAS THROUGH MONDAY. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE
THE MAIN THREAT WITH AREAS OF FLOODING LIKELY. RAINFALL WILL END
FROM WEST TO EAST IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS MONDAY.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ALL OF NORTH TEXAS AGAIN
LATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT
THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS LIKELY FOR AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF A
COMANCHE TO ATHENS LINE THROUGH 1 AM CDT.

CAVANAUGH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1053 PM CDT SUN OCT 25 2009

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1050 PM     FLASH FLOOD      TRENTON                 33.43N  96.35W
10/25/2009                   FANNIN             TX   AMATEUR RADIO

            STREET FLOODING IN TRENTON

42/MM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1058 PM CDT SUN OCT 25 2009

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1055 PM     TSTM WND GST     TRENTON                 33.43N  96.35W
10/25/2009  M58 MPH          FANNIN             TX   AMATEUR RADIO

            MEASURED 58 MPH WIND GUST IN TRENTON

42/MM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1101 PM CDT SUN OCT 25 2009

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1057 PM     FLASH FLOOD      2 SW CLEBURNE           32.33N  97.42W
10/25/2009                   JOHNSON            TX   AMATEUR RADIO

            HIGH WATER RESCUE IN PROGRESS NEAR LAKE PAT CLEBURNE

42/MM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1117 PM CDT SUN OCT 25 2009

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1105 PM     LIGHTNING        TRENTON                 33.43N  96.35W
10/25/2009                   FANNIN             TX   AMATEUR RADIO

            LIGHTNING STRIKE TO HOUSE IN TRENTON LOCAL LAW
            ENFORCEMENT CURRENTLY RESPONDING

42/MM

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1123 PM CDT SUN OCT 25 2009

TXZ144-260500-
BOSQUE TX-
1123 PM CDT SUN OCT 25 2009

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  BOSQUE COUNTY

AT 1123 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 15 MILES WEST OF CLIFTON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25
MPH.

CITIES IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE CLIFTON...MERIDIAN AND
MERIDIAN STATE PARK.

SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED FROM THIS
STORM.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 100 AM CDT MONDAY
MORNING FOR NORTHEASTERN TEXAS.

LAT...LON 3212 9755 3195 9742 3193 9742 3190 9738
      3169 9773 3168 9776 3192 9793
TIME...MOT...LOC 0423Z 240DEG 21KT 3186 9781

SCHULTZ

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1139 PM CDT SUN OCT 25 2009

TXZ134-260515-
ELLIS TX-
1139 PM CDT SUN OCT 25 2009

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  ELLIS COUNTY

AT 1139 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 7 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
LANCASTER TO 15 MILES SOUTHEAST OF ALVARADO...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

CITIES IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE ALMA...BARDWELL...ENNIS...
FERRIS...ITALY...PALMER...RED OAK AND WAXAHACHIE.

VERY HEAVY RAIN AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH ARE LIKELY WITH THESE
STORMS.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 100 AM CDT MONDAY
MORNING FOR NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN TEXAS.

LAT...LON 3207 9693 3224 9705 3255 9682 3255 9662
      3249 9650 3247 9650 3242 9645 3238 9644
      3236 9645 3234 9642
TIME...MOT...LOC 0439Z 281DEG 18KT 3253 9668 3225 9703