Flash Flood Warning 111, NWS Fort Worth, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
635 PM CDT SUN OCT 25 2009

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 00Z TAFS...MVFR WITH PERIODS OF POSSIBLE IFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THRU THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO NORTH
TEXAS. SPED UP THE TIMING OF THE WIND SHIFT A FEW HRS AS THE
PREFRONTAL TROUGH WILL EFFECTIVELY VEER WINDS AROUND TO THE
NORTHWEST WELL AHEAD OF THE TRUE COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT
ITSELF...THE DEEPER COLD AIR SITUATED OVER THE TX PANHANDLE EAST
INTO WESTERN OK ATM WILL NOT MAKE MUCH DIFFERENCE IN WIND
DIRECTION...BUT MAY CAUSE WIND SPEEDS TO INCREASE A FEW KTS AS IT
MOVES THRU. AS THE PREFRONTAL TROUGH MOVES THRU...INCREASING
CONFIDENCE IN A LINE OF CONVECTION MOVING INTO METROPLEX TAF SITES
IN THE 05 TO 09Z TIME FRAME. SHOULD SEE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL
WITHIN THIS WINDOW...AND LIKELY THE WORST FLIGHT CATEGORIES AS
WELL. 21 AND 22Z LAMP GUIDANCE WAS BECOMING MORE OPTIMISTIC ABOUT
PREVAILING CIG HEIGHTS...SO KEPT PREVAILING CIGS JUST ABOVE IFR
LVLS FOR NOW. IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS LIKELY WHEN HEAVIER RAIN MOVES
OVER THE METROPLEX. THE TRUE COLD FRONT STILL LOOKS TO MOVE THRU
AROUND 09Z...AND AFTER IT MOVES THRU EXPECT TO SEE A DECREASE IN
OVERALL INTENSITY OF RAIN SHOWERS/TSTMS AS DEEPER COLD AIR INVADES
THE REGION. WITH THE UPPER TROUGH HOLDING OFF TO THE WEST FOR THE
NEXT 24 HRS...THINK THAT AFT 09Z WE WILL SEE ON AND OFF RAIN
SHOWER ACTIVITY THRU THE DAY ON MONDAY...POSSIBLY INTO MONDAY
EVENING.

TONIGHT...MVFR. PERIODS OF IFR/LIFR ASSOCIATED WITH PRECIPITATION
MOVING OVER TAF SITES.

MONDAY...MVFR. ON AND OFF RAIN POSSIBLE ALL DAY.

MONDAY NIGHT...MVFR. RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH FROM
WEST TO EAST.

CAVANAUGH

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 250 PM CDT SUN OCT 25 2009/
LOOKS LIKE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN IN THE NORTHWEST THIS
EVENING...AND TRANSITION SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT. FLASH FLOODING
STILL APPEARS TO BE THE MAIN THREAT...BUT A FEW STRONG STORMS MAY
DEVELOP THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. STORM TOTAL QPF RUNS UP
TO OVER 3 INCHES IN EASTERN COUNTIES...AND THAT AMOUNT OF WATER
SHOULD PRODUCE AT LEAST LOCALIZED FLOODING AND RIVER FLOODING AS
WELL.

GFS HANGS ONTO PRECIPITATION THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON...UNTIL
AFTER THE UPPER LOW TRANSITIONS NORTHEAST OF THE AREA...AND I
HAVE KEPT POPS THROUGH 1 PM. COVERAGE IS LIKELY TO BE
SCATTERED...SO I UNDERCUT THE GFS LIKELY POPS WITH CHANCE P0PS.
WINDS SWITCH BACK TO SOUTH LATE TUESDAY AHEAD OF THURSDAY/S COLD
FRONT. AGAIN PRECIP APPEARS LIKELY...BUT AFTER THAT SYSTEM
TRANSITIONS THROUGH NORTH TEXAS LOOKS DRY THROUGH DAY 7.   84

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  55  59  50  70  56 / 100  90  50  20  10
WACO, TX              61  61  50  71  58 / 100 100  50  10  10
PARIS, TX             56  60  49  62  53 / 100 100  60  40  10
DENTON, TX            53  57  49  69  56 / 100  80  40  20  10
MCKINNEY, TX          55  59  49  68  54 / 100  90  50  20  10
DALLAS, TX            56  59  50  69  56 / 100  90  50  20  10
TERRELL, TX           57  61  49  68  56 / 100 100  60  20  10
CORSICANA, TX         60  60  49  70  57 /  90 100  60  20  10
TEMPLE, TX            62  62  48  72  58 /  90 100  50   5  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR TXZ091>095-102>107-
117>123-131>135-142>148-156>162-174-175.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
806 PM CDT SUN OCT 25 2009

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-270115-
MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-
HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS-
ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-VAN ZANDT-RAINS-EASTLAND-ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL-
JOHNSON-ELLIS-HENDERSON-COMANCHE-MILLS-HAMILTON-BOSQUE-HILL-NAVARRO-
FREESTONE-ANDERSON-LAMPASAS-CORYELL-BELL-MCLENNAN-FALLS-LIMESTONE-
LEON-MILAM-ROBERTSON-
806 PM CDT SUN OCT 25 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR AREAS GENERALLY
ALONG AND NORTH OF A COMANCHE TO ATHENS LINE THROUGH 1 AM CDT. THE
PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS LARGE HAIL...HOWEVER DAMAGING
OUTFLOW WINDS AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THE
OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AFTER 1 AM
CDT.

ANY THUNDERSTORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL WHICH
MAY LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL THROUGHOUT THE OVERNIGHT HRS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

AREAS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE ACROSS NORTH TEXAS THROUGH MONDAY. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE
THE MAIN THREAT WITH AREAS OF FLOODING LIKELY. RAINFALL WILL END
FROM WEST TO EAST IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS MONDAY.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ALL OF NORTH TEXAS AGAIN
LATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT
THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS LIKELY FOR AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF A
COMANCHE TO ATHENS LINE THROUGH 1 AM CDT.

CAVANAUGH

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