Severe Thunderstorm Warning 46, NWS Grand Forks, ND

000 
WWUS53 KFGF 141408
SVSFGF

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
908 AM CDT FRI AUG 14 2009

NDC063-141418-
/O.CAN.KFGF.SV.W.0046.000000T0000Z-090814T1445Z/
NELSON ND-
908 AM CDT FRI AUG 14 2009

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR EXTREME NORTHEASTERN NELSON
COUNTY IS CANCELLED...

AT 908 AM CDT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MOVED OUT OF THE WARNED
AREA IN EXTREME NORTHEASTERN NELSON COUNTY. SO THE WARNING HAS BEEN
CANCELLED.

LAT...LON 4823 9776 4844 9732 4789 9727 4761 9724
      4761 9758
TIME...MOT...LOC 1408Z 236DEG 30KT 4818 9771 4779 9757

$$

NDC035-091-097-099-141445-
/O.CON.KFGF.SV.W.0046.000000T0000Z-090814T1445Z/
GRAND FORKS ND-STEELE ND-TRAILL ND-WALSH ND-
908 AM CDT FRI AUG 14 2009

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 945 AM CDT
FOR CENTRAL GRAND FORKS...NORTHEASTERN STEELE...NORTHWESTERN TRAILL
AND SOUTH CENTRAL WALSH COUNTIES...

AT 908 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE
LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 3 MILES NORTHWEST OF INKSTER TO 3
MILES SOUTHEAST OF KEMPTON...MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  CONWAY AND INKSTER BY 915 AM CDT...
  HOLMES AND ARVILLA BY 920 AM CDT...
  JOHNSTOWN...HONEYFORD AND GILBY BY 925 AM CDT...
  VESELEYVILLE...MEKINOCK AND GRAND FORKS AFB BY 930 AM CDT...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY DO PRODUCE
TORNADOES WITH LITTLE OR NO ADVANCE WARNING.

&&

LAT...LON 4823 9776 4844 9732 4789 9727 4761 9724
      4761 9758
TIME...MOT...LOC 1408Z 236DEG 30KT 4818 9771 4779 9757

$$
PR/DK

000 
WWUS53 KFGF 141424
SVSFGF

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
924 AM CDT FRI AUG 14 2009

NDC091-141434-
/O.CAN.KFGF.SV.W.0046.000000T0000Z-090814T1445Z/
STEELE ND-
924 AM CDT FRI AUG 14 2009

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN STEELE COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...

AT 924 AM CDT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MOVED OUT OF THE WARNED
AREA IN NORTHEASTERN STEELE COUNTY. SO THE WARNING HAS BEEN
CANCELLED.

LAT...LON 4761 9741 4830 9761 4844 9732 4789 9727
      4761 9724
TIME...MOT...LOC 1424Z 236DEG 30KT 4825 9755 4771 9736

$$

NDC035-097-099-141445-
/O.CON.KFGF.SV.W.0046.000000T0000Z-090814T1445Z/
GRAND FORKS ND-TRAILL ND-WALSH ND-
924 AM CDT FRI AUG 14 2009

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 945 AM CDT
FOR CENTRAL GRAND FORKS...NORTHWESTERN TRAILL AND CENTRAL WALSH
COUNTIES...

AT 922 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE
LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 5 MILES WEST OF FOREST RIVER TO 4
MILES WEST OF HOLMES...MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  VESELEYVILLE...MEKINOCK...HOLMES AND GRAND FORKS AFB BY 930 AM
  CDT...
  VOSS BY 935 AM CDT...
  MINTO AND ARDOCH BY 940 AM CDT...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY DO PRODUCE
TORNADOES WITH LITTLE OR NO ADVANCE WARNING.

&&

LAT...LON 4761 9741 4830 9761 4844 9732 4789 9727
      4761 9724
TIME...MOT...LOC 1424Z 236DEG 30KT 4825 9755 4771 9736

$$

PR/DK

000 
WWUS53 KFGF 141437
SVSFGF

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
937 AM CDT FRI AUG 14 2009

NDC035-097-099-141448-
/O.EXP.KFGF.SV.W.0046.000000T0000Z-090814T1445Z/
GRAND FORKS ND-TRAILL ND-WALSH ND-
937 AM CDT FRI AUG 14 2009

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR CENTRAL GRAND FORKS...
NORTHWESTERN TRAILL AND CENTRAL WALSH COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 945 AM
CDT...

DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THE STORMS WERE NO LONGER SEVERE AND SO THE
WARNING WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 945 AM CDT. 

LAT...LON 4761 9741 4830 9761 4844 9732 4789 9727
      4761 9724
TIME...MOT...LOC 1438Z 236DEG 30KT 4832 9740 4777 9722

$$

DK/PR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
439 AM CDT FRI AUG 14 2009

.DISCUSSION...
THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IS PCPN. WHEN LOOKING AT THE LATEST
SURFACE ANALYSIS...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED NEAR
HCO...WITH A TROF EXTENDING THROUGH E ND TO ANOTHER LOW THAT IS
CENTERED NEAR PIR. UPON COMPARING THE MODELS...THE MODELS REMAIN IN
PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH WEATHER PATTERN PROGRESSION...WITH STILL
SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES. THEREFORE...ENDED UP KEEPING FORECAST
CONTINUITY AND USED A MODEL BLEND FOR POPS AS IN THE PAST FEW DAYS.
ALSO CONTINUED TO LEAN TOWARDS THE ADJMAVBC GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS.

CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS PLENTY SHRA AND TSRA DEVELOPING IN W AND
CENTRAL ND AND EXTENDING INTO S MANITOBA. THE A E-NE MOVEMENT OF
PCPN...EXPECT TSRA TO MOVE INTO NE ND AND NW MN TODAY...WITH
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLD SVR AS LONG AS LOW LEVEL JET KEEPS ASSISTING
ELEVATED INSTABILITY ON N SIDE OF LOW/INVERTED TROF. CONSEQUENTLY...
INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY IN PORTIONS OF DVL BASIN AND EXTREME ND NE
AND NW MN. THESE STORMS HAVE HISTORY OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL...SO
POTENTIAL OF ISOLD SVR EXISTS AS WELL.

FOR TONIGHT INTO SAT...THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT BECOMES
BETTER DEVELOPED IN THE WARM SECTOR TONIGHT AS THE SHIFTS SLOWLY E
AND LOW LEVEL JET FOCUSES IN E ND. THEREFORE...INCREASED POPS FROM W
TO E OVER THE AREA. THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT RISK FOR SVR
STORMS...WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND THE PRIMARY SVR WEATHER
THREATS. CONSIDERING THAT THE LOCATION OF THE LOW/INVERTED TROF WILL
BE CRITICAL IN DETERMINING WHERE SVR POTENTIAL WILL FOCUS...WILL NOT
MENTION IN GRIDS OR ZONES AT THIS TIME...BUT WILL HIGHLIGHT IN HWO
AND WX STORY.

FOR SAT NIGHT...BROUGHT LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE AREA ON SAT IN
CONJUNCTION WITH THE SURFACE LOW MOVING ACROSS ND INTO ONT BY SUN
AFTERNOON...BRINGING THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR TSRA TO THE N PLAINS.
THEREFORE...INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY FOR ALL OF E ND FOR SAT NIGHT
AND THEN MOVED BETTER CHC POPS INTO MN SIDE FOR SUN.

FOR SUN NIGHT AND MON...CYCLONIC FLOW BEHIND THE AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME RESIDUAL SHOWERS
OVERNIGHT INTO MON.

FOR MON NIGHT INTO THU...THERE IS A BRIEF BREAK IN THE PCPN
POTENTIAL BEFORE ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DROPS OUT OF CANADA
TOWARDS THE N PLAINS FOR TUE NIGHT INTO THU.

&&

.AVIATION...
BASICALLY VFR SKY EXPECTED TODAY WITH BEST TSRA POTENTIAL IN KDVL
AND KGFK AREAS THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS. NO VSBY RESTRICTIONS
ANTICIPATED. WINDS TO REMAIN S-SE AROUND 10 KTS.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

NG

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
701 AM CDT FRI AUG 14 2009

MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040-NDZ006>008-014>016-024-
026>030-038-039-049-052>054-151215-
WEST POLK-NORMAN-CLAY-KITTSON-ROSEAU-LAKE OF THE WOODS-
WEST MARSHALL-EAST MARSHALL-NORTH BELTRAMI-PENNINGTON-RED LAKE-
EAST POLK-NORTH CLEARWATER-SOUTH BELTRAMI-MAHNOMEN-
SOUTH CLEARWATER-HUBBARD-WEST BECKER-EAST BECKER-WILKIN-
WEST OTTER TAIL-EAST OTTER TAIL-WADENA-GRANT-TOWNER-CAVALIER-
PEMBINA-BENSON-RAMSEY-EASTERN WALSH COUNTY-EDDY-NELSON-
GRAND FORKS-GRIGGS-STEELE-TRAILL-BARNES-CASS-RANSOM-SARGENT-
RICHLAND-WESTERN WALSH COUNTY-
701 AM CDT FRI AUG 14 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA...WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN
NORTH DAKOTA...NORTHWESTERN AND WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA TODAY INTO
TONIGHT. THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREATS ARE LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THE SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES THROUGH
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT FOR EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA...NORTHWEST
AND WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS REMAIN
THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREATS.

THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES ON SUNDAY. THERE IS ALSO
A POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS THE
NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES SOUTH OUT OF CANADA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE TODAY INTO SATURDAY.

NG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
644 AM CDT FRI AUG 14 2009

MNZ006-141245-
LAKE OF THE WOODS MN-
644 AM CDT FRI AUG 14 2009

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GRAND FORKS HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTH CENTRAL LAKE OF THE WOODS
COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA...

UNTIL 745 AM CDT

AT 642 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING UP TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS
UP TO 50 MPH. THE STORM WAS LOCATED 16 MILES WEST OF ANGLE INLET...OR
41 MILES NORTHEAST OF ROSEAU...MOVING TO THE EAST AT 25 MPH.

THE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
ANGLE INLET AT 715 AM CDT...FLAG ISLAND AT 735 AM CDT...OAK ISLAND AT
740 AM CDT...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

BE PREPARED TO TAKE SHELTER IF THE STORMS INTENSIFY AND BECOME
SEVERE...OR A WARNING IS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

&&

LAT...LON 4935 9503 4935 9492 4932 9483 4912 9477
      4904 9473 4896 9472 4904 9515 4937 9515
TIME...MOT...LOC 1144Z 286DEG 23KT 4938 9539

G2

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
758 AM CDT FRI AUG 14 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0757 AM     HAIL             CAMP GRAFTON            48.06N 98.92W
08/14/2009  E0.75 INCH       RAMSEY             ND   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

GGROCHOC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
808 AM CDT FRI AUG 14 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0805 AM     HAIL             DEVILS LAKE             48.11N 98.87W
08/14/2009  E1.50 INCH       RAMSEY             ND   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

GGROCHOC