Severe Thunderstorm Warning 43, NWS Grand Forks, ND

000 
WWUS53 KFGF 141251
SVSFGF

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
751 AM CDT FRI AUG 14 2009

NDC005-027-071-141330-
/O.CON.KFGF.SV.W.0043.000000T0000Z-090814T1330Z/
EDDY ND-BENSON ND-RAMSEY ND-
751 AM CDT FRI AUG 14 2009

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 830 AM CDT
FOR EASTERN BENSON...NORTHERN EDDY AND WESTERN RAMSEY COUNTIES...

AT 750 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WALNUT SIZE HAIL...AND
DESTRUCTIVE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH. THE STORM WAS LOCATED 5 MILES
NORTHEAST OF MINNEWAUKAN...OR 13 MILES WEST OF DEVILS LAKE...MOVING
TO THE EAST AT 40 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE ABOUT...
  6 MILES SOUTH OF PENN BY 755 AM CDT...
  7 MILES NORTH OF CAMP GRAFTON BY 800 AM CDT...
  DEVILS LAKE BY 805 AM CDT...
  7 MILES SOUTH OF WEBSTER BY 810 AM CDT...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY DO PRODUCE
TORNADOES WITH LITTLE OR NO ADVANCE WARNING.

&&

LAT...LON 4827 9933 4846 9859 4774 9858 4774 9929
      4786 9929
TIME...MOT...LOC 1250Z 250DEG 46KT 4811 9915

$$

ROGERS

000 
WWUS53 KFGF 141308
SVSFGF

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
808 AM CDT FRI AUG 14 2009

NDC005-027-071-141330-
/O.CON.KFGF.SV.W.0043.000000T0000Z-090814T1330Z/
EDDY ND-BENSON ND-RAMSEY ND-
808 AM CDT FRI AUG 14 2009

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 830 AM CDT
FOR EASTERN BENSON...NORTHERN EDDY AND WESTERN RAMSEY COUNTIES...

AT 805 AM CDT...LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM 
PRODUCING WALNUT SIZE HAIL AT DEVILS LAKE...AND DESTRUCTIVE WINDS IN 
EXCESS OF 70 MPH. THE STORM WAS LOCATED 5 MILES NORTH OF DEVILS 
LAKE...MOVING TO THE EAST AT 40 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  RURAL CENTRAL RAMSEY COUNTY AT 820 AM CDT

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY DO PRODUCE
TORNADOES WITH LITTLE OR NO ADVANCE WARNING.

&&

LAT...LON 4827 9933 4846 9859 4774 9858 4774 9929
      4786 9929
TIME...MOT...LOC 1308Z 250DEG 46KT 4819 9882

$$
DK/PR

000 
WWUS53 KFGF 141323
SVSFGF

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
823 AM CDT FRI AUG 14 2009

NDC027-141333-
/O.CAN.KFGF.SV.W.0043.000000T0000Z-090814T1330Z/
EDDY ND-
823 AM CDT FRI AUG 14 2009

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHERN EDDY COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...

AT 823 AM CDT...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM HAS MOVED OUT OF THE WARNED
AREA IN NORTHERN EDDY COUNTY. SO THE WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

LAT...LON 4839 9888 4846 9859 4797 9858 4789 9884
TIME...MOT...LOC 1323Z 250DEG 46KT 4825 9855

$$

NDC005-071-141330-
/O.CON.KFGF.SV.W.0043.000000T0000Z-090814T1330Z/
BENSON ND-RAMSEY ND-
823 AM CDT FRI AUG 14 2009

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 830 AM CDT
FOR EAST CENTRAL BENSON AND CENTRAL RAMSEY COUNTIES...

AT 821 AM CDT...LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WALNUT SIZE HAIL...AND DESTRUCTIVE WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 70 MPH. THE STORM WAS LOCATED 6 MILES NORTH OF SOUTHAM...OR
16 MILES NORTHEAST OF DEVILS LAKE...MOVING TO THE EAST AT 40 MPH.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY DO PRODUCE
TORNADOES WITH LITTLE OR NO ADVANCE WARNING.

&&

LAT...LON 4839 9888 4846 9859 4797 9858 4789 9884
TIME...MOT...LOC 1323Z 250DEG 46KT 4825 9855

$$
PR/DK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
439 AM CDT FRI AUG 14 2009

.DISCUSSION...
THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IS PCPN. WHEN LOOKING AT THE LATEST
SURFACE ANALYSIS...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED NEAR
HCO...WITH A TROF EXTENDING THROUGH E ND TO ANOTHER LOW THAT IS
CENTERED NEAR PIR. UPON COMPARING THE MODELS...THE MODELS REMAIN IN
PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH WEATHER PATTERN PROGRESSION...WITH STILL
SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES. THEREFORE...ENDED UP KEEPING FORECAST
CONTINUITY AND USED A MODEL BLEND FOR POPS AS IN THE PAST FEW DAYS.
ALSO CONTINUED TO LEAN TOWARDS THE ADJMAVBC GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS.

CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS PLENTY SHRA AND TSRA DEVELOPING IN W AND
CENTRAL ND AND EXTENDING INTO S MANITOBA. THE A E-NE MOVEMENT OF
PCPN...EXPECT TSRA TO MOVE INTO NE ND AND NW MN TODAY...WITH
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLD SVR AS LONG AS LOW LEVEL JET KEEPS ASSISTING
ELEVATED INSTABILITY ON N SIDE OF LOW/INVERTED TROF. CONSEQUENTLY...
INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY IN PORTIONS OF DVL BASIN AND EXTREME ND NE
AND NW MN. THESE STORMS HAVE HISTORY OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL...SO
POTENTIAL OF ISOLD SVR EXISTS AS WELL.

FOR TONIGHT INTO SAT...THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT BECOMES
BETTER DEVELOPED IN THE WARM SECTOR TONIGHT AS THE SHIFTS SLOWLY E
AND LOW LEVEL JET FOCUSES IN E ND. THEREFORE...INCREASED POPS FROM W
TO E OVER THE AREA. THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT RISK FOR SVR
STORMS...WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND THE PRIMARY SVR WEATHER
THREATS. CONSIDERING THAT THE LOCATION OF THE LOW/INVERTED TROF WILL
BE CRITICAL IN DETERMINING WHERE SVR POTENTIAL WILL FOCUS...WILL NOT
MENTION IN GRIDS OR ZONES AT THIS TIME...BUT WILL HIGHLIGHT IN HWO
AND WX STORY.

FOR SAT NIGHT...BROUGHT LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE AREA ON SAT IN
CONJUNCTION WITH THE SURFACE LOW MOVING ACROSS ND INTO ONT BY SUN
AFTERNOON...BRINGING THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR TSRA TO THE N PLAINS.
THEREFORE...INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY FOR ALL OF E ND FOR SAT NIGHT
AND THEN MOVED BETTER CHC POPS INTO MN SIDE FOR SUN.

FOR SUN NIGHT AND MON...CYCLONIC FLOW BEHIND THE AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME RESIDUAL SHOWERS
OVERNIGHT INTO MON.

FOR MON NIGHT INTO THU...THERE IS A BRIEF BREAK IN THE PCPN
POTENTIAL BEFORE ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DROPS OUT OF CANADA
TOWARDS THE N PLAINS FOR TUE NIGHT INTO THU.

&&

.AVIATION...
BASICALLY VFR SKY EXPECTED TODAY WITH BEST TSRA POTENTIAL IN KDVL
AND KGFK AREAS THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS. NO VSBY RESTRICTIONS
ANTICIPATED. WINDS TO REMAIN S-SE AROUND 10 KTS.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

NG

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
701 AM CDT FRI AUG 14 2009

MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040-NDZ006>008-014>016-024-
026>030-038-039-049-052>054-151215-
WEST POLK-NORMAN-CLAY-KITTSON-ROSEAU-LAKE OF THE WOODS-
WEST MARSHALL-EAST MARSHALL-NORTH BELTRAMI-PENNINGTON-RED LAKE-
EAST POLK-NORTH CLEARWATER-SOUTH BELTRAMI-MAHNOMEN-
SOUTH CLEARWATER-HUBBARD-WEST BECKER-EAST BECKER-WILKIN-
WEST OTTER TAIL-EAST OTTER TAIL-WADENA-GRANT-TOWNER-CAVALIER-
PEMBINA-BENSON-RAMSEY-EASTERN WALSH COUNTY-EDDY-NELSON-
GRAND FORKS-GRIGGS-STEELE-TRAILL-BARNES-CASS-RANSOM-SARGENT-
RICHLAND-WESTERN WALSH COUNTY-
701 AM CDT FRI AUG 14 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA...WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN
NORTH DAKOTA...NORTHWESTERN AND WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA TODAY INTO
TONIGHT. THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREATS ARE LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THE SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES THROUGH
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT FOR EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA...NORTHWEST
AND WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS REMAIN
THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREATS.

THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES ON SUNDAY. THERE IS ALSO
A POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS THE
NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES SOUTH OUT OF CANADA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE TODAY INTO SATURDAY.

NG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
644 AM CDT FRI AUG 14 2009

MNZ006-141245-
LAKE OF THE WOODS MN-
644 AM CDT FRI AUG 14 2009

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GRAND FORKS HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTH CENTRAL LAKE OF THE WOODS
COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA...

UNTIL 745 AM CDT

AT 642 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING UP TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS
UP TO 50 MPH. THE STORM WAS LOCATED 16 MILES WEST OF ANGLE INLET...OR
41 MILES NORTHEAST OF ROSEAU...MOVING TO THE EAST AT 25 MPH.

THE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
ANGLE INLET AT 715 AM CDT...FLAG ISLAND AT 735 AM CDT...OAK ISLAND AT
740 AM CDT...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

BE PREPARED TO TAKE SHELTER IF THE STORMS INTENSIFY AND BECOME
SEVERE...OR A WARNING IS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

&&

LAT...LON 4935 9503 4935 9492 4932 9483 4912 9477
      4904 9473 4896 9472 4904 9515 4937 9515
TIME...MOT...LOC 1144Z 286DEG 23KT 4938 9539

G2