Flash Flood Warning 14, NWS Grand Forks, ND

000 
WGUS73 KFGF 270352
FFSFGF

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
1049 PM CDT FRI JUN 26 2009

NDC005-027-063-071-095-099-271400-
/O.CON.KFGF.FF.W.0014.000000T0000Z-090627T1400Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
EDDY ND-BENSON ND-RAMSEY ND-NELSON ND-TOWNER ND-WALSH ND-
1049 PM CDT FRI JUN 26 2009

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 AM CDT SATURDAY
FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN WALSH...EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN TOWNER...
NORTHWESTERN NELSON...RAMSEY...BENSON AND WESTERN EDDY COUNTIES...

AT 1048 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED 2 
TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN HAD FALLEN IN THE LAWTON...BROCKET...CRARY... 
PENN...MINNEWAUKAN AND MADDOCK AREAS. AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 3 INCHES OF 
RAIN IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL CAUSE RAPID RISES ON AREA 
RIVERS ...CREEKS AND STREAMS. LOCAL COMMUNITY AND RURAL DRAINAGE 
SYSTEMS WILL BE OVERWHELMED AND OVERLAND FLOODING IS LIKELY AS WELL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MOST FLASH FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR
VEHICLE INTO WATER OF UNKNOWN DEPTH. ONE OR TWO FEET OF WATER WILL
FLOAT MOST CARS DOWNSTREAM.

BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN THE DANGERS OF FLASH FLOODING
ARE HARD TO RECOGNIZE.

&&

LAT...LON 4809 9962 4838 9897 4855 9896 4854 9832
      4820 9829 4818 9841 4799 9844 4771 9895
      4760 9926 4769 9927 4786 9929 4785 9961

$$

EWENS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
721 PM CDT FRI JUN 26 2009

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT OBS SHOW SURFACE BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM NEAR PEMBINA
SOUTHWEST TO JUST NORTH OF BISMARCK. NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA UNDER
A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS. CONVECTION MAINLY IN THE
NORTHEAST CORNER OF ND JUST EAST OF GFK. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND
TORNADIC ACTIVITY THREAT WILL BE HIGH IN TOR WATCH AREA AT LEAST
THROUGH THE NEXT FOUR HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION...
WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS NORTHEAST ND AND NW MN.
EXPECT MORE DEVELOPMENT...LATER INTO THE EVENING...MAINLY NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 94. TSTMS WILL APPROACH BEMIDJI AFT MIDNIGHT. EXPECT
SVR STORMS AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO IN VCNTY OF TVF...GFK...AND DVL
OVER THE NEXT THREE TO FOUR HOURS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 250 PM CDT FRI JUN 26 2009/

SHORT TERM...
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IS HEAVY RAIN/SEVERE POTENTIAL TONIGHT.
MODELS ARE IN DECENT CONSENSUS IN SHOWING BETTER DEVELOPMENT EARLY
ON TONIGHT OVER THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS...TRANSITIONING MORE TO A RAIN
EVENT LATE TONIGHT. FOLLOWED THE HPC PCPN AMOUNTS WHICH ARE MORE
OF A MODEL BLEND.

TONIGHT...AT 19Z...THERE WAS STILL BROAD SFC LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
WESTERN HIGH PLAINS...MAINLY BETWEEN KMBG AND KPHP. NICE WARM
SECTOR AROUND AND AHEAD OF THE LOW...WITH TEMPS IN THE LOW 90S AND
DEW POINTS IN THE 60S. THIS IS GIVING SFC BASED CAPE VALUES OF
AROUND 3500 J/KG AND MLCAPE VALUES ABOUT THE SAME. BULK SHEAR
VALUES ARE BEST OVER THE WESTERN DAKOTAS...BUT THERE ARE SOME 40KT
VALUES UP TOWARD KDVL. LOWEST SFC BASED LIS ARE RIGHT AROUND THE
SFC LOW (-9)...BUT DO EXTEND ALL OVER THE WARM SECTOR. 18Z
SOUNDINGS AT KABR/KUNR ARE STILL SHOWING SOME WEAK CAP IN PLACE
..SO ARE STILL AWAITING THE KICKER TO GET THINGS GOING WITHIN THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. FORCING STILL LOOKS BEST NEAR THE SFC LOW AND ITS
VARIOUS BOUNDARIES...OR WITH ANY PIECE OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY THAT
EJECTS OUT IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW. SPC ALREADY MONITORING PORTIONS
OF THE DAKOTAS FOR SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL. AS STORMS GET GOING
LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...THINK THINGS WILL SLOWLY
TRANSITION MORE TO A WIDESPREAD RAIN EVENT OVERNIGHT. MODELS TRACK
THE SFC LOW INTO EAST CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BY 06Z SAT...THEN UP
INTO NORTHWEST MN BY 12Z SAT. NICE MOISTURE TRANSPORT ALSO SETS UP
WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET CRANKING UP TO 50KTS OR GREATER. NOT SURE
ABOUT HOW ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS SOUTH OF THE FA WILL AFFECT
THINGS UP IN THE FA EITHER...IF AN MCS DEVELOPS TO THE SOUTH IT
COULD SAP SOME OF THIS MOISTURE TRANSPORT. PREVIOUS FORECAST
ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR KDVL REGION INTO THE NORTHERN RED
RIVER VALLEY...WHICH STILL LOOKS FINE. THE SOUTHERN VALLEY HAS
ALSO BEEN HIT HARD RECENTLY...BUT THE HEAVIER RAINS LOOK TO STAY
NORTH OF THIS AREA.

SAT-MON...SAT AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING LOOKS MORE FAVORABLE
FOR PCPN TODAY...AS A 500MB SHORT WAVE TRACKS THRU. TEMPS ALOFT
LOOK PRETTY CHILLY TOO WHICH FAVOR AFTERNOON INSTABILITY SHOWERS/
TSTMS. NORTHWEST WINDS LOOK PRETTY DECENT TOO...SO IT WILL BE A
MUCH DIFFERENT DAY THAN TODAY. LOWERED HIGHS A BIT BUT PROBABLY
NOT QUITE ENOUGH...MUCH DEPENDS ON LINGERING CLOUD COVER. REST OF
FORECAST LOOKS FINE.

LONG TERM TUE-FRI...
00Z AND 06Z MODEL RUNS WERE QUITE VARIED IN THEIR SOLUTIONS
REGARDING MID TO LATE WEEK 500 MB PATTERN.  12Z RUNS A BIT BETTER
BUT STILL QUITE VARIED IN HOW DEEP THE 500 MB TROUGH WILL BE OVER
THE GREAT LAKES.  IT IS LOOKING LIKE A WEAK SFC TROUGH WILL PASS
THRU TUES NIGHT OR WED FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE.  BASED ON COORD
WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES WE WENT AGAINST HPC POPS AND LOWERED AND
WENT DRY FOR THU-FRI PERIOD.  TEMPS LOOK A BIT CLOSER TO NORMAL OR A
FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

AVIATION...
MAIN PLAYER WILL BE TIMING THE DEVELOPMENT OF WIDESPREAD RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING AND SPREADING INTO
NW/WCNTRL MN LATE TONIGHT-SAT MORNING.  WENT WIDESPREAD
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE TAFS LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AT MOST TAF
SITES.  CIGS COULD GO DOWN INTO MVFR RANGE LATER IN THE NIGHT IN
SATURATED AIRMASS...BUT EXTENT IS NOT CLEAR.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR NDZ006>008-014>016-
     024-026-054.

MN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR MNZ004-007.

&&

SPEICHER

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
652 AM CDT FRI JUN 26 2009

MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040-NDZ006>008-014>016-024-
026>030-038-039-049-052>054-271200-
WEST POLK-NORMAN-CLAY-KITTSON-ROSEAU-LAKE OF THE WOODS-
WEST MARSHALL-EAST MARSHALL-NORTH BELTRAMI-PENNINGTON-RED LAKE-
EAST POLK-NORTH CLEARWATER-SOUTH BELTRAMI-MAHNOMEN-
SOUTH CLEARWATER-HUBBARD-WEST BECKER-EAST BECKER-WILKIN-
WEST OTTER TAIL-EAST OTTER TAIL-WADENA-GRANT-TOWNER-CAVALIER-
PEMBINA-BENSON-RAMSEY-EASTERN WALSH COUNTY-EDDY-NELSON-
GRAND FORKS-GRIGGS-STEELE-TRAILL-BARNES-CASS-RANSOM-SARGENT-
RICHLAND-WESTERN WALSH COUNTY-
652 AM CDT FRI JUN 26 2009

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH TONIGHT FOR THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN AND FAR
NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY...

...RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA...WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR STRONG
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS AFTERNOON CONTINUING OVERNIGHT
AS THE FRONT SHIFTS EAST. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG A
LINE FROM DEVILS LAKE TO LANGDON BY THIS EVENING AND SHIFT SLOWLY
EAST ACROSS EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND FAR NORTHWEST MINNESOTA
OVERNIGHT. ISOLATED TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE
ALL POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS. IN ADDITION HEAVY RAIN WILL BE A
THREAT MAINLY ACROSS THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN INTO THE FAR NORTHERN
VALLEY WHERE RAINFALL AMOUNTS EXCEEDING TWO INCHES ARE POSSIBLE.
ANOTHER POTENTIAL AREA FOR STRONG STORMS WILL BE ACROSS PORTIONS
OF WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA AFTER MIDNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

AREAS OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS NORTHWEST
AND WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA MAINLY SATURDAY MORNING. NO HAZARDOUS
WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED FOR SEVERE WEATHER AND RAINFALL REPORTS.

VOELKER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
821 PM CDT FRI JUN 26 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0818 PM     HAIL             4 NW THOMPSON           47.82N 97.17W
06/26/2009  E1.75 INCH       GRAND FORKS        ND   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

WBARRETT

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
845 PM CDT FRI JUN 26 2009

MNZ001-002-013>015-NDZ027-030-270245-
NORMAN MN-WEST POLK MN-EAST POLK MN-RED LAKE MN-PENNINGTON MN-
GRAND FORKS ND-TRAILL ND-
845 PM CDT FRI JUN 26 2009

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GRAND FORKS HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WESTERN POLK COUNTY IN NORTHWEST
MINNESOTA AND WESTERN PENNINGTON COUNTY IN NORTHWEST MINNESOTA AND
WESTERN RED LAKE COUNTY IN NORTHWEST MINNESOTA AND NORTHWESTERN
NORMAN COUNTY IN NORTHWEST MINNESOTA AND SOUTHEASTERN GRAND FORKS
COUNTY IN NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA AND EASTERN TRAILL COUNTY IN
SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA...

UNTIL 945 PM CDT

AT 844 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING UP TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL
AND STORNG WINDS UP TO 45 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A
LINE EXTENDING FROM 3 MILES EAST OF BYGLAND TO 2 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
HILLSBORO...MOVING TO THE EAST AT 25 MPH.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
HILLSBORO AND FISHER AT 850 PM CDT...ELDRED...CLIMAX AND NIELSVILLE
AT 900 PM CDT...CROOKSTON...HALSTAD AND SHELLY AT 910 PM CDT...
GREENVIEW AT 920 PM CDT...

INTERSTATE 29 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 101 AND 104...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

BE PREPARED TO TAKE SHELTER IF THE STORMS INTENSIFY AND BECOME
SEVERE...OR A WARNING IS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

&&

LAT...LON 4816 9585 4730 9672 4738 9726 4816 9686
TIME...MOT...LOC 0144Z 285DEG 25KT 4782 9688 4738 9710

DK/JK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
849 PM CDT FRI JUN 26 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0845 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     10 SE CROOKSTON         47.67N 96.45W
06/26/2009                   POLK               MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            PERSISTENT WALL CLOUD WITH BRIEF FUNNEL.

&&

WBARRETT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
857 PM CDT FRI JUN 26 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0856 PM     FLASH FLOOD      GRAND FORKS             47.92N 97.07W
06/26/2009                   GRAND FORKS        ND   TRAINED SPOTTER

            UNIVERSITY AVENUE FROM WASHINGTON TO 20TH STREET FLOODED
            TO APPROXIMATELY 18 INCHES. WATER UP ONTO BERMS.

&&

EWENS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
859 PM CDT FRI JUN 26 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0856 PM     FLASH FLOOD      GRAND FORKS             47.92N 97.07W
06/26/2009                   GRAND FORKS        ND   TRAINED SPOTTER

            UNIVERSITY AVENUE FROM COLUMBIA ROAD TO 20TH STREET
            FLOODED TO APPROXIMATELY 18 INCHES. WATER UP ONTO BERMS.

&&

WBARRETT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
915 PM CDT FRI JUN 26 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0910 PM     TSTM WND DMG     5 N HILLSBORO           47.48N 97.06W
06/26/2009                   TRAILL             ND   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            SEMI TRACTOR AND TRAILER BLOWN OFF I-29 NORTH OF
            HILLSBORO... EXACT LOCATION UNKNOWN AT THIS TIME.

&&

WBARRETT