Areal Flood Warning 21, NWS Grand Forks, ND

000 
WGUS83 KFGF 272333
FLSFGF

FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
625 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2009

MNC089-107-113-119-125-NDC035-097-281700-
/O.CON.KFGF.FA.W.0021.000000T0000Z-090628T1700Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
NORMAN MN-RED LAKE MN-PENNINGTON MN-GRAND FORKS ND-TRAILL ND-
MARSHALL MN-POLK MN-
625 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2009

...THE FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON CDT SUNDAY FOR
SMALL STREAMS IN POLK...MARSHALL...TRAILL...GRAND FORKS...
PENNINGTON...RED LAKE AND NORMAN COUNTIES...

STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN DEVELOPED OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST 
NORTH DAKOTA AND THE CENTRAL RED RIVER VALLEY. THE HEAVIEST 
RAINFALL WAS ALONG A LINE FROM THE NIAGARA AND LARIMORE AREAS TO 
NEAR THOMPSON AND ON TO THE CUMMINGS AND NIELSVILLE AREAS. LIGHTER 
RAINS HAVE FALLEN IN THE THIEF RIVER FALLS AND NEWFOLDEN AREAS. 
DOPPLER RADAR ESTIMATES SHOW 1 TO 2 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL RAIN HAD 
FALLEN SINCE THE MID MORNING HOURS SATURDAY.

RUNOFF FROM EARLIER RAINFALL AND THIS ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION WILL 
CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. CREEKS AND STREAMS WERE STILL RISING 
IN MANY AREAS...WITH DITCHES AND CULVERTS FULL. A PRELIMINARY 
ASSESSMENT BY THE NWS CONFIRMS EARLIER REPORTS OF SIGNIFICANT 
OVERLAND FLOODING...ESPECIALLY IN TRAILL AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF 
POLK COUNTY. NUMEROUS WASHOUTS AS WELL AS DAMAGED CULVERTS AND 
FLOODED ROADS WERE OBSERVED. THE RAIN WILL TAPER OFF THIS 
EVENING...BUT IT WILL TAKE ANOTHER 12 TO 24 HOURS BEFORE RUNOFF 
DIMINISHES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLOOD WARNING IS ISSUED FOR A SPECIFIC COMMUNITY OR AN AREA ALONG A
RIVER WHERE FLOODING HAS BEEN FORECAST...IS IMMINENT...OR IS IN
PROGRESS AND IS A THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY.

BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS HARDER TO RECOGNIZE THE
DANGERS OF FLOODING. IF FLASH FLOODING IS OBSERVED ACT QUICKLY. MOVE
TO HIGHER GROUND TO ESCAPE FLOOD WATERS. DO NOT STAY IN AREAS SUBJECT
TO FLOODING WHEN WATER BEGINS RISING.

&&

LAT...LON 4804 9790 4819 9790 4819 9714 4823 9656
      4851 9599 4809 9594 4784 9596 4752 9651
      4741 9681 4744 9717 4782 9701 4782 9746
      4793 9769

$$

EWENS

000 
WGUS43 KFGF 281613
FLWFGF

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
1106 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2009

MNC089-107-113-119-125-NDC035-097-301700-
/O.EXT.KFGF.FA.W.0021.000000T0000Z-090630T1700Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
NORMAN MN-RED LAKE MN-PENNINGTON MN-GRAND FORKS ND-TRAILL ND-
MARSHALL MN-POLK MN-
1106 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GRAND FORKS HAS EXTENDED THE

* FLOOD WARNING FOR SMALL STREAMS IN...
  GRAND FORKS COUNTY IN NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA...
  MARSHALL COUNTY IN NORTHWEST MINNESOTA...
  NORMAN COUNTY IN NORTHWEST MINNESOTA...
  PENNINGTON COUNTY IN NORTHWEST MINNESOTA...
  POLK COUNTY IN NORTHWEST MINNESOTA...
  RED LAKE COUNTY IN NORTHWEST MINNESOTA...
  TRAILL COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA...

* UNTIL NOON CDT TUESDAY

* HEAVY RAINFALL WHICH OCCURRED OVER THE PAST TWO DAYS HAS           
  CONTRIBUTED TO LOCALIZED OVERLAND FLOODING OF FARM FIELDS AND AREA
  STREAMS.  WATER WILL START TO RECEDE THE NEXT TWO DAYS AS NO       
  ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL OCCUR. SOME ROADS ARE CLOSED AND BE SURE  
  TO OBEY POSTED SIGNS. 

* THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL FELL FROM NORTHEAST NELSON AND NORTHWEST     
  GRAND FORKS COUNTY INTO WALSH COUNTY WHERE 4 TO 7 INCHES FELL.     
  ANOTHER AREA OF HEAVY RAIN FELL FROM NORTHEAST TRAILL INTO         
  SOUTHWEST POLK AND WESTERN RED LAKE COUNTIES WHERE 3 TO 5 INCHES   
  OF RAIN FELL.    


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

OBEY ALL POSTED SIGNS AND ROAD CLOSURES.  

&&

LAT...LON 4804 9790 4819 9790 4819 9714 4823 9656
      4851 9599 4809 9594 4784 9596 4752 9651
      4741 9681 4744 9717 4782 9701 4782 9746
      4793 9769

$$

DTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
419 AM CDT SAT JUN 27 2009

.DISCUSSION...
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IS PCPN. WHEN LOOKING AT THE LATEST SURFACE
ANALYSIS...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED BETWEEN JMS AND FAR
WITH AN INVERTED TROF EXTENDING ALONG A GFK TO HCO LINE. WHEN
COMPARING THE MODELS...THE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT FOR
THE SHORT TERM FORECAST ON THE PATTERN TRANSITIONS...SO ENDED UP
USING A MODEL BLEND FOR THE FORECAST. THE NAM IS DOING BETTER ON
PCPN PLACEMENT...SO PRIMARILY USED IT FOR POPS AND ENDED UP USING
EITHER FORECAST CONTINUITY OR THE ADJMAVBC GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS.

ALTHOUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE ACTUAL TSRA ACTIVITY IS NOW E OF THE
AREA...STILL LEFT WITH A LARGE RAIN AREA...WITH EMBEDDED HEAVY RAIN
SHOWERS...MOSTLY OVER THE MN SIDE. WITH THE LOW EXPECTED TO TRACK TO
THE NE TODAY...WILL STILL HAVE THE PCPN HANGING AROUND THROUGH MUCH
OF THE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON IN NW MN. THEN...A 500MB TROF
MOVES INTO ND FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH SURFACE HEATING
CREATING INSTABILITY IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE COLDER AIR ALOFT WHICH
COULD SET OFF ANOTHER ROUND OF TSRA FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT ON THE ND SIDE. WITH THE COLDER TEMPS ALOFT...THESE STORMS
WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED FOR THE POTENTIAL OF HAIL AND SPC HAS
INCLUDED MUCH OF THE AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK. DID NOT PUT SVR WORDING
IN THE GRIDS OR ZONES AT THIS TIME. LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO
MONITOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AND ADD SVR WORDING IF NEEDED.

FOR TONIGHT INTO SUN...THE SURFACE AND 500 MB LOW BECOME STACKED IN
S ONT...KEEPING PARTS OF NW MN IN CYCLONIC FLOW. THUS...KEPT A SCHC
FOR SHRA/TSRA IN FORECAST THROUGH SUN. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE N PLAINS AND DOMINATES THE WEATHER FOR SUN NIGHT INTO
WED...SO KEPT FORECAST DRY. THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OUT
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON THU...BUT WITH BEST INSTABILITY REMAINING
S OF THE AREA AT THIS TIME...KEPT FORECAST DRY.

&&

.AVIATION...
IFR/MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY IMPROVE BY 18Z TODAY AS
PCPN MOVES OUT OF THE AREA. WINDS TO TURN NW AND INCREASE TO
AROUND 15 KTS...WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KTS POSSIBLE.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

NG

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
652 AM CDT SAT JUN 27 2009

MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040-NDZ006>008-014>016-024-
026>030-038-039-049-052>054-281200-
WEST POLK-NORMAN-CLAY-KITTSON-ROSEAU-LAKE OF THE WOODS-
WEST MARSHALL-EAST MARSHALL-NORTH BELTRAMI-PENNINGTON-RED LAKE-
EAST POLK-NORTH CLEARWATER-SOUTH BELTRAMI-MAHNOMEN-
SOUTH CLEARWATER-HUBBARD-WEST BECKER-EAST BECKER-WILKIN-
WEST OTTER TAIL-EAST OTTER TAIL-WADENA-GRANT-TOWNER-CAVALIER-
PEMBINA-BENSON-RAMSEY-EASTERN WALSH COUNTY-EDDY-NELSON-
GRAND FORKS-GRIGGS-STEELE-TRAILL-BARNES-CASS-RANSOM-SARGENT-
RICHLAND-WESTERN WALSH COUNTY-
652 AM CDT SAT JUN 27 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA...WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA...NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LARGE HAIL IS THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER PARTS OF NORTHWEST
MINNESOTA FOR SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING.

NG