Severe Thunderstorm Warning 50, NWS Kansas City, MO

000 
WWUS53 KEAX 080307
SVSEAX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1007 PM CDT THU MAY 7 2009

MOC053-195-080330-
/O.CON.KEAX.SV.W.0050.000000T0000Z-090508T0330Z/
COOPER MO-SALINE MO-
1007 PM CDT THU MAY 7 2009

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHERN
SALINE AND EXTREME NORTHWESTERN COOPER COUNTIES UNTIL 1030 PM CDT...

AT 1006 PM CDT... NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE DESTRUCTIVE
HAIL UP TO BASEBALL SIZE...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. 
THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 6 MILES WEST OF MARSHALL...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT
30 MPH.

THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF EXTREME
NORTHWESTERN COOPER AND SOUTHERN SALINE COUNTIES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM. IF YOU ARE IN ITS PATH...PREPARE
IMMEDIATELY FOR LARGE DESTRUCTIVE HAIL CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE. PEOPLE OUTSIDE SHOULD MOVE TO A SHELTER...
PREFERABLY INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING AND AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

&&

LAT...LON 3900 9288 3894 9333 3906 9341 3909 9343
      3923 9320 3904 9293 3901 9291
TIME...MOT...LOC 0307Z 318DEG 28KT 3910 9330

$$

CDB

000 
WWUS53 KEAX 080316
SVSEAX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1016 PM CDT THU MAY 7 2009

MOC053-195-080330-
/O.CON.KEAX.SV.W.0050.000000T0000Z-090508T0330Z/
COOPER MO-SALINE MO-
1016 PM CDT THU MAY 7 2009

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHERN
SALINE AND EXTREME NORTHWESTERN COOPER COUNTIES UNTIL 1030 PM CDT...

AT 1013 PM CDT... NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE DESTRUCTIVE
HAIL UP TO BASEBALL SIZE...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. 
THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 6 MILES SOUTHWEST OF MARSHALL...MOVING
SOUTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF EXTREME
NORTHWESTERN COOPER AND SOUTHERN SALINE COUNTIES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM. IF YOU ARE IN ITS PATH...PREPARE
IMMEDIATELY FOR LARGE DESTRUCTIVE HAIL CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE. PEOPLE OUTSIDE SHOULD MOVE TO A SHELTER...
PREFERABLY INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING AND AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

&&

LAT...LON 3900 9288 3894 9333 3904 9340 3917 9311
      3904 9293 3901 9291
TIME...MOT...LOC 0316Z 319DEG 29KT 3903 9323

$$

CDB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
640 PM CDT THU MAY 7 2009

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.DISCUSSION...
/425 PM CDT THU MAY 7 2009/
MOST IMMEDIATE CONCERN IS THE THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS
EVENING. ACTIVITY OVER EXTREME SOUTHERN IA IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TRACKING ESE BUT AS THE STORMS BECOME MORE NUMEROUS AM EXPECTING TO
SEE A COLD POOL FORM AND HEAD SOUTHWARD ALLOWING IT TO INTERACT WITH
THE MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS..MIXED LAYER CAPES OF 1000-1500
CAPES FEEDING INTO THE STORMS WITH 2000 CAPES OVER EASTERN KS. O-6
KM BULK SHEAR OF 60-70KT CERTAINLY WILL PROVIDE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT
SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS. HOWEVER...ELEVATED LCL LEVELS ARE NOT
FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES EXCEPT FOR THOSE CELLS ALONG A BOUNDARY
WHICH INGEST THE BETTER STREAMWISE LOW LEVEL VORTICITY FOUND THERE.
VEERING LOW LEVEL FLOW OVER SE NEBRASKA/NW MISSOURI/NE KANSAS HAS
TEMPORARILY LIMITED THE PROPAGATION SOUTHWARD OF THE CONVECTION.
WILL NEED TO WAIT FOR THE COLD POOL TO FORM FIRST. 18Z NAM/RUC HOLD
THE CONVECTION ALONG THE MO/IA BORDER THROUGH ABOUT 03Z BEFORE
OPENING UP THE FLOODGATES AND ALLOWING THE CONVECTION TO SPREAD
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA DURING THE LATE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS.

WHERE CONVECTION ENDS UP BY 12Z FRIDAY IS OPEN TO DEBATE AND WILL
DETERMINE WHERE HEAVIEST QPF WILL BE. OTHERWISE...WILL BROADBRUSH
POPS WITH OVERALL LOW QPF AS ANOTHER IN THE SERIES OF EMBEDDED
IMPULSES STREAKS SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATE TONIGHT.
SHOULD SEE ANOTHER SURGE OF MID CLOUDS AND SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS.
THUNDER LOOKS VERY SUSPECT IN THE MORNING. BY AFTERNOON A COLD FRONT
WILL FINALLY ARRIVE WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLY FORMING JUST AHEAD OF IT. LOW CONFIDENCE ON PRECIPITATION
COVERAGE LIMITS POPS TO LOW END CHANCE CATEGORY. THIS COLD FRONT
SHOULD BRING IN MUCH DRIER AND SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION
FOR SATURDAY AND SHOVE THE RAIN CHANCES SOUTH OF THE CWA.

MJ

MEDIUM RANGE (SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO EXHIBIT GOOD CONSISTENCY DEPICTING
QUASI-ZONAL FLOW EARLY IN THE PERIOD...BUCKLING SLIGHTLY LATER IN
THE PERIOD IN RESPONSE TO WEAK NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...AND SUBTROPICAL RIDGING POKING NORTH
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...THIS PATTERN WILL
FAVOR SFC PRESSURE RISES AND SUBSIDENCE EXERTING INFLUENCE FROM THE
NRN THROUGH CNTRL PLAINS...WITH THE PRIMARY BAROCLINICITY DRAPED
NEAR THE I-40 CORRIDOR. HOWEVER...AS HEIGHT FALLS BEGIN TO EXTEND
INLAND OVER THE NRN ROCKIES...THE COMBINATION OF LEE SFC PRESSURE
FALLS AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING EAST TO THE MIDATLANTIC STATES
WILL PROMOTE RETURN FLOW OF DEEPER RICH MOISTURE THROUGH THE CNTRL
CONUS. IN GENERAL...PREFER A BLEND OF THE 00Z ECMWF AND 12Z GEFS
SHOWING A SLOWER AND WEAKER FORWARD PROGRESSION TO THE LEAD WAVE
PUSHING OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST RIDGE AXIS...AND SUBSEQUENTLY A
SLOWER AND WEAKER FRONTAL PUSH THROUGH THE MIDWEEK TIME FRAME.

AS A RESULT...WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A PRIMARILY DRY FORECAST
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WITH FLOW ALOFT FAVORING ORGANIZED MCS/S CLOSER
TO THE VEERED LLJ AXIS IN THE TX/OK/AR VICINITY. STILL CANNOT RULE
OUT AN ISOLATED/SCT SHOWER/SPRINKLE ASSOCIATED WITH DECAYING
CONVECTION SPILLING EAST FROM THE HIGH TERRAIN (PARTICULARLY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON)...THOUGH COVERAGE...AMOUNTS...AND SENSIBLE IMPACTS
PRECLUDE ANY STRONGER MENTION AT THIS TIME. CONCERNING TEMPERATURES
THROUGH TUESDAY...ENSEMBLE SPREADS CONTINUE VERY SMALL...LEADING TO
AN ABOVE AVERAGE CONFIDENCE FORECAST OF SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
READINGS.

RETURN FLOW (INITIALLY MORE OF A MODIFIED CONTINENTAL AIRMASS) WILL
BEGIN IN EARNEST TUESDAY MORNING WITH INCREASING HEIGHTS ALOFT AND
MODEST THETA-E ADVECTION ON THE NOSE OF A WELL DEFINED EML.
VIRTUALLY ALL MODELS INDICATE ESTABLISHED SLANTWISE UPGLIDE NEAR THE
305K SFC TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH NOTABLE ELEVATED INSTABILITY ABOVE
H7. HAVE BOOSTED POPS INTO THE CHANCE CATEGORY DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD...THOUGH CONCEPTUALLY WOULD EXPECT THE BEST CHANCES FOR THIS
SCENARIO TO OCCUR OVERNIGHT TOWARDS WEDNESDAY MORNING.
REGARDLESS...WOULD EXPECT THE FIRST ROUND OF STORMS TO PASS THROUGH
THE CWA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH CAPPING INVERSION HOLDING UNTIL
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES AS EARLY AS LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
(BUT MORE LIKELY UNTIL THURSDAY MORNING OR AFTERNOON). CONVERGENCE
ALONG THIS BOUNDARY ALONG WITH WEAK DYNAMICAL LIFT SHOULD BECOME
SUFFICIENT TO BREAK THE STIFF CAPPING INVERSION AT SOME POINT DURING
THE MIDWEEK PERIOD...AND WITH DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE (GREATER THAN
12 G/KG MIXED MOISTURE)...INSTABILITY PARAMETERS SHOULD PROVE AMPLE
FOR STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. WILL ALSO NEED
TO WATCH FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL POTENTIAL SHOULD MESOSCALE
INFLUENCES CAUSE THE BOUNDARY TO STALL ALONG A VEERED LLJ AXIS IN
BETWEEN INDIVIDUAL WAVES ALOFT.

21

&&

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 00Z TAFS...FAVOR GOING WITH VFR CONDITIONS FOR THIS FORECAST
AS CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON PICKING ANY 2-4 HOUR WINDOW TO INSERT A
TEMPO OR PREVAILING GROUP. BEST WAY TO GO IS TO AMEND THE FORECAST
SHOULD CONVECTION DEVELOP UPSTREAM OF THE TERMINALS.

NEAR TERM PORTION OF FORECAST BECOMING A BIT CLEARER AS PRIMARY
CONVECTION REMAINS ROOTED TO THE NORTH OF THE TERMINALS WITH THE
DEVELOPING MCS. STILL A POTENTIAL FOR THIS CONVECTION TO AFFECT THE
KSTJ TERMINAL OVER THE NEXT 6 HOURS AS THE ENTIRE BOUNDARY SAGS
SOUTHWARD. HOWEVER CANT JUSTIFY ANYTHING MORE THAN VCTS. FOR THE
KMCI/KMKC TERMINALS THE ABOVE NOTED BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY NOT ARRIVE
UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT. CONVECTION POSSIBLE BUT BY THAT TIME IT SHOULD
BE FALLING APART.

LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY EXTENSIVE MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS EXPECTED WITH
EMBEDDED LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE. WITH THE SHOWERS BEING SO RANDOMLY
PLACED BEST TO GO WITH A DRY FORECAST FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS AND WAIT FOR NEXT FORECAST CYCLE.

MJ

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
651 PM CDT THU MAY 7 2009

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-090000-
ATCHISON KS-MIAMI-LINN KS-DONIPHAN-LEAVENWORTH-WYANDOTTE-
JOHNSON KS-ATCHISON MO-NODAWAY-WORTH-GENTRY-HARRISON-MERCER-
PUTNAM-SCHUYLER-HOLT-ANDREW-DE KALB-DAVIESS-GRUNDY-SULLIVAN-ADAIR-
BUCHANAN-CLINTON-CALDWELL-LIVINGSTON-LINN MO-MACON-PLATTE-CLAY-
RAY-CARROLL-CHARITON-RANDOLPH-JACKSON-LAFAYETTE-SALINE-HOWARD-
CASS-JOHNSON MO-PETTIS-COOPER-BATES-HENRY-
651 PM CDT THU MAY 7 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST...NORTH CENTRAL
AND WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...AS WELL AS EXTREME EASTERN KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS GENERALLY NORTH OF AN
OLATHE TO SEDALIA LINE INTO THE LATE EVENING HOURS. HOWEVER...THE
BEST CHANCE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NORTH OF A ST
JOSEPH TO MACON LINE. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE
PRIMARY THREATS AS A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM EVOLVES. INDIVIDUAL
STORMS WILL TRACK TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST WHILE THE ENTIRE BOUNDARY
WHICH IS SUPPORTING THE STORMS SHIFTS GRADUALLY SOUTHWARD. WILL BE
WATCHING TO SEE HOW THE COLD POOL EVOLVES FROM THE MATURING SYSTEM AS
THIS COLD POOL SHOULD PUSH SOUTH WITH NEW THUNDERSTORMS FORMING ALONG
THIS NEW BOUNDARY. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY STILL AFFECT AREAS
INTO WEST CENTRAL AND CENTRAL MISSOURI LATER TONIGHT BUT THE SEVERE
POTENTIAL WILL BE LESSENING AS THE LOW LEVEL JET WEAKENS AND DIURNAL
COOLING EFFECTS SUPPRESS THE UPDRAFTS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY...BUT DUE TO LIMITED
INSTABILITY...THE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE.
OTHERWISE...A PERIOD OF THUNDERSTORMS IS POSSIBLE TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SEVERE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED INTO MID EVENING AND MAINLY ACROSS
NORTHERN MISSOURI AND EXTREME NORTHEAST KANSAS.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
807 PM CDT THU MAY 07 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0801 PM     TORNADO          2 W LOCK SPRINGS        39.85N 93.81W
05/07/2009                   DAVIESS            MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            VISIBLE FUNNEL ONLY HALF WAY TO THE GROUND. TREE DEBRIS

            FLYING THROUGH THE AIR...CORRECTED FOR TIME OF OCCURRENCE

&&

ABAILEY

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
812 PM CDT THU MAY 7 2009

MOZ022-080145-
CALDWELL-
812 PM CDT THU MAY 7 2009

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR CALDWELL COUNTY UNTIL 845 PM CDT...

AT 809 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR CAMERON...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

PENNY SIZE HAIL IS EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  HAMILTON AND KINGSTON AROUND 825 PM CDT.
  COWGILL AROUND 840 PM CDT.

THE TOWN OF KIDDER IS ALSO IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM.

LAT...LON 3970 9377 3969 9377 3953 9388 3971 9422
      3978 9421 3979 9411

21

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
821 PM CDT THU MAY 07 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0819 PM     HAIL             4 NW CHILLICOTHE        39.83N 93.61W
05/07/2009  E0.75 INCH       LIVINGSTON         MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

ABAILEY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
837 PM CDT THU MAY 07 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0820 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     UTICA                   39.75N 93.63W
05/07/2009                   LIVINGSTON         MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            FUNNEL CLOUD REPORTED TO DANCE UP AND DOWN AND NEVER
            TOUCH THE GROUND

&&

ABAILEY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
929 PM CDT THU MAY 07 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0925 PM     HAIL             BRUNSWICK               39.42N 93.13W
05/07/2009  E0.75 INCH       CHARITON           MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

ACH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
930 PM CDT THU MAY 07 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0915 PM     HAIL             4 W CARROLLTON          39.36N 93.57W
05/07/2009  E2.75 INCH       CARROLL            MO   STORM CHASER

&&

ACH