Flash Flood Warning 10, NWS Kansas City, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
527 AM CDT FRI MAY 8 2009

.DISCUSSION...

CONVECTIVE THREAT WILL LINGER THIS MORNING...MAINLY FOR THE SRN
GRIDS. A WEAK SFC BOUNDARY HAS SAGGED INTO SRN KS INTO SWRN MO IN
ADVANCE OF PRESSURE FALLS IN NWRN OK ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE
EXITING COLORADO. MODELS SUGGEST THAT A SIGNIFICANT SFC TO H8 THETAE
RIDGE EXISTS FM SRN KS TO SWRN MO...PSBLY CLIPPING THE XTRM SRN
PORTION OF THE CWFA. STG CONVECTION WAS DEVELOPING ALONG THIS
GRADIENT...BEING AIDED BY A STG LLJ IMPORTING COPIOUS MOISTURE NWD.
NAM SUGGESTS THAT THE SRN CWA WILL SEE MODEST THETAE
ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT THIS MORNING WITH WEAK TO MODEST
INSTABILITY. GIVEN MODERATE TO DEEP LAYER EFFECTIVE SHEAR AND MUCAPES
FM 1000-2000 J/KG...CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED/FEW ELEVATED SVR STORMS
FOR THE EXTREME SRN CWA WITH LARGE HAIL THE PRIMARY THREAT. AT THE
CURRENT TIME...GREATEST RISK APPEARS TO BE FROM LINN COUNTY EAST TO
BATES AND HENRY COUNTIES.

ISENTROPIC LIFT WEAKENS NEAR THE I-70 CORRIDOR BUT WEAK ELEVATED
INSTABILITY...EXPECTED A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO MAKE IT AS FAR NORTH AS
THE I-70 CORRIDOR. ACR NRN MO...CANNOT RULE OUT PATCHES OF LIGHT
PRECIPITATION AS AN AREA OF RAIN MOVES EAST OUT OF NRN KS AND SRN
NEB.

SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY MOVE EAST OUT OF THE CWA BY EARLY AFTN WITH A
FEW LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FOR THE SRN AND ERN
GRIDS THIS AFTN.

COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL SPREAD SOUTH TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AS A COOL
SFC HIGH SAGS INTO THE SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS.

HAVE BOOSTED POPS A LITTLE ON SUNDAY AS BANDS OF VERY LIGHT RAIN PSBL
WITH THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH.

DB

&&

.AVIATION...

STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION WAS DEVELOPING TO THE SOUTH OF THE
TERMINALS EARLY THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...THE COMPLEX IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE ESE. A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER MAY MAKE IT INTO THE MKC TERMINAL
SHORTLY AFT 12Z. OTHERWISE...VFR RAIN WILL AFFECT KMCI/KMKC THIS MORNING WITH
A FEW VFR SPRINKLES PSBL AT KSTJ. ALL PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO END BY
17Z WITH SKIES GRADUALLY CLEARING. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE
TERMINALS THIS EVENING WITH A SHIFT TO NW WINDS.

DB

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
600 AM CDT FRI MAY 8 2009

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-091100-
ATCHISON KS-MIAMI-LINN KS-DONIPHAN-LEAVENWORTH-WYANDOTTE-
JOHNSON KS-ATCHISON MO-NODAWAY-WORTH-GENTRY-HARRISON-MERCER-
PUTNAM-SCHUYLER-HOLT-ANDREW-DE KALB-DAVIESS-GRUNDY-SULLIVAN-ADAIR-
BUCHANAN-CLINTON-CALDWELL-LIVINGSTON-LINN MO-MACON-PLATTE-CLAY-
RAY-CARROLL-CHARITON-RANDOLPH-JACKSON-LAFAYETTE-SALINE-HOWARD-
CASS-JOHNSON MO-PETTIS-COOPER-BATES-HENRY-
600 AM CDT FRI MAY 8 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST...NORTH CENTRAL
AND WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...AS WELL AS EXTREME EASTERN KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A COMPLEX OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHERN KANSAS AND
SOUTHERN MISSOURI THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK EAST SOUTHEAST.
ALTHOUGH THE SEVERE WILL PREDOMINATELY STAY SOUTH OF THE OUTLOOK
AREA...AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM MAY PRODUCE ONE INCH HAIL THIS
MORNING FOR AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM MOUND CITY TO BUTLER
TO CLINTON. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO LIKELY WITHIN THIS REGION. ANY
THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL END BY NOON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

A PERIOD OR TWO OF THUNDERSTORMS IS POSSIBLE TUESDAY THROUGH EARLY
FRIDAY AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT MOVES INTO
THE REGION. SEVERE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

DB

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
337 AM CDT FRI MAY 8 2009

KSZ060-MOZ053-080900-
BATES-LINN-
337 AM CDT FRI MAY 8 2009

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR EASTERN LINN AND WESTERN BATES
COUNTIES UNTIL 400 AM CDT...

AT 336 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR PLEASANTON...MOVING EAST-NORTHEAST AT 20
MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS AROUND 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

LAT...LON 3815 9492 3839 9464 3839 9462 3841 9462
      3845 9458 3819 9433 3808 9472

DEROCHE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
417 AM CDT FRI MAY 8 2009

MOZ053-080945-
BATES-
417 AM CDT FRI MAY 8 2009

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR CENTRAL BATES COUNTY UNTIL 445 AM
CDT...

AT 416 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 7 MILES NORTHEAST OF
PLEASANTON TO 6 MILES SOUTHEAST OF BUTLER...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20
MPH.

PENNY SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS AROUND 40 TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH
THESE STORMS.

LAT...LON 3843 9455 3838 9408 3816 9417 3820 9461

DEROCHE