Severe Thunderstorm Warning 46, NWS Quad Cities, IA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
314 AM CDT FRI JUN 19 2009

.SYNOPSIS...TWO STORM CLUSTERS ARE CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION. FIRST OVER SOUTHERN WI AND NORTHERN IL DEVELOPED IN LOW-
LEVEL WAA AND HAD LITTLE EFFECT ON OUR AREA. SECOND AND MORE OF
CONCERN TO US IN THE CLUSTER OF STORMS IN SOUTHEAST NE AND EXTREME
WESTERN IA...ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH STRETCHES FROM
SOUTHWEST KS NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN MN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT.
MAIN CONCERN FOR US IS THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER TODAY AND THIS
EVENING. CLUSTER OF STORMS TO OUR WEST WILL BE THE KEY TO OUR
THREAT TODAY. IF THEY HOLD TOGETHER AND DEVELOP INTO A WELL
ORGANIZED SYSTEM AND TAP INTO THE HIGHLY UNSTABLE AIR OVER
IOWA...THAT WILL BE THE PROBLEM OF THE DAY. IF THE CAP HOLDS AND
THE STORMS WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE EAST...THEN THE CHALLENGE WILL BE
TO ASSESS THEIR IMPACT ON THE ENVIRONMENT OVER THE STATE AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR REDEVELOPMENT LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS
THE SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE CWA.

INSTABILITY IS QUITE HIGH WITH SBCAPES BETWEEN 2000 AND 3000
J/KG...EVEN AT THIS TIME IN THE MORNING. HOWEVER...CIN IS HIGH
ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE CWA. 0-6KM SHEAR SUPPORTS
WELL ORGANIZED CONVECTION...PERHAPS EVEN SUPERCELLS IF UPDRAFTS
ARE SURFACE-BASED...BUT 0-1KM SHEAR AND SSW SURFACE WINDS ARE NOT
PARTICULARLY FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES. MAIN THREATS TODAY WILL BE
WIND AND LOCAL HEAVY RAIN/FLASH FLOODING. RECENT RAINS HAVE
SATURATED SOILS IN MANY PARTS OF THE CWA...BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON
ISSUING A FLASH FLOOD WATCH AS THE DETAILS OF THE THREAT REMAIN
UNCLEAR.

MODELS AGREE IN BRINGING THE FRONT THROUGH THE CWA THIS EVENING
WHICH SHOULD END THE SEVERE/HEAVY RAIN THREAT.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS TO OUR EAST BY SATURDAY BUT THE WARM MOIST
AIR MASS AND JET AXIS WILL PERSIST OVER THE MID AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY INTO NEXT WEEK. THUS WHILE THIS WOULD SUPPORT AT
LEAST SOME CHANCE OF RAIN...SURFACE FEATURES IN ALL THE MODELS ARE
VERY WEAK AND ILL-DEFINED...THUS IT IS HARD TO PIN DOWN POP
CHANCES. WAA RETURNS SUNDAY AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS BACK NORTH...
SO HAVE SOME POPS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS. TEMPS AND HUMIDITY THE
NEXT WEEK WILL BE RATHER SUMMER-LIKE.

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD
OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS...WHERE VERY MOIST CONDITIONS WILL RESULT
ON IFR-LIFR CIGS AND VSBYS WHERE THE STORMS OCCUR.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

WOLF

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
438 AM CDT FRI JUN 19 2009

IAZ040>042-051>054-063>068-076>078-087>089-098-099-ILZ001-002-007-
009-015>018-024>026-034-035-MOZ009-010-200945-
BUCHANAN-DELAWARE-DUBUQUE-BENTON-LINN-JONES-JACKSON-IOWA-JOHNSON-
CEDAR-CLINTON-MUSCATINE-SCOTT-KEOKUK-WASHINGTON-LOUISA-JEFFERSON-
HENRY IA-DES MOINES-VAN BUREN-LEE-JO DAVIESS-STEPHENSON-CARROLL-
WHITESIDE-ROCK ISLAND-HENRY IL-BUREAU-PUTNAM-MERCER-HENDERSON-
WARREN-HANCOCK-MCDONOUGH-SCOTLAND-CLARK-
438 AM CDT FRI JUN 19 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
ILLINOIS...NORTHWEST ILLINOIS...WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...EAST
CENTRAL IOWA...NORTHEAST IOWA...SOUTHEAST IOWA AND NORTHEAST
MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA TODAY AND ARE LIKELY TO
BE SEVERE AND PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. THE ATMOSPHERE IS
VERY UNSTABLE AND WINDS ALOFT SUPPORT WELL ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS. INTENSE RAINFALL
WILL OCCUR WITH THESE STORMS THAT MAY CAUSE MINOR FLOODING. WHERE
MULTIPLE THUNDERSTORMS TRACK OVER THE SAME AREA...FLASH FLOODING
IS LIKELY.

THE FIRST GROUP OF THUNDERSTORMS IS CURRENTLY IN WESTERN IOWA AND
MOVING EASTWARD. THIS COULD BRING A ROUND OF MORNING SEVERE
WEATHER. AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS
POSSIBLE.

THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL END LATER TONIGHT WHEN THE COLD
FRONT EXITS THE AREA.

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ALMOST ALL OF THE AREA UNDER A
MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...THUS AN EMERGENCY
MANAGEMENT CONFERENCE CALL WILL BE SCHEDULED LATER TODAY TO
DISCUSS THE SEVERE THREAT.

IN ADDITION...SOME AREA RIVERS ARE EXPERIENCING GENERALLY MINOR
FLOODING. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST FLOOD STATEMENTS AND FLOOD
WARNINGS FOR DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS LIKELY TODAY. REPORTS OF STRONG WINDS...
WIND DAMAGE AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE APPRECIATED.

WOLF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
741 AM CDT FRI JUN 19 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0738 AM     TSTM WND DMG     URBANA                  42.22N 91.88W
06/19/2009                   BENTON             IA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREES AND TREE BRANCHES UPROOTED AND BLOW DOWN.

&&

RAYW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
748 AM CDT FRI JUN 19 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0745 AM     HAIL             5 E CENTER POINT        42.19N 91.68W
06/19/2009  E0.88 INCH       LINN               IA   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

RAYW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
757 AM CDT FRI JUN 19 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0755 AM     TSTM WND DMG     VINTON                  42.16N 92.03W
06/19/2009                   BENTON             IA   BROADCAST MEDIA

            NUMEROUS TREES DOWN THROUGHOUT TOWN. WINDS ESTIMATED AT
            75 MPH.

&&

LEGRO

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