Flash Flood Warning 15, NWS Quad Cities, IA

000 
WGUS73 KDVN 192343
FFSDVN

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
643 PM CDT FRI JUN 19 2009

IAC031-045-115-139-163-ILC131-161-192352-
/O.CAN.KDVN.FF.W.0015.000000T0000Z-090620T0415Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
CLINTON IA-CEDAR IA-SCOTT IA-MUSCATINE IA-LOUISA IA-ROCK ISLAND IL-
MERCER IL-
643 PM CDT FRI JUN 19 2009

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR MERCER...ROCK
ISLAND...LOUISA...MUSCATINE...SCOTT...SOUTHERN CEDAR AND SOUTHERN
CLINTON COUNTIES...

AT 641 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR SHOWED THE
THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING FLASH FLOODING HAVE EXITED THE WARNED
AREA. THE THREAT FOR ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN HAS ENDED. THEREFORE...
THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED. 

LAT...LON 4181 9019 4178 9026 4169 9023 4153 9027
      4152 9036 4145 9044 4107 9044 4107 9137
      4167 9135 4201 9014

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
204 PM CDT FRI JUN 19 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
SEVERE WEATHER HAS ALREADY IMPACTED THE CWA THIS MORNING IN THE
NORTH...AND REMAINS A HIGH THREAT THROUGH MID EVENING WHEN A COLD
FRONT WILL SWEEP EASTWARD THROUGH THE CWA. CLEARING IN THE WAKE OF
THE MORNING STORMS HAS ALLOWED FOR A QUICK RECOVERY ON TEMPERATURES
BACK TO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S OVER MUCH OF THE CWA.  DEWPOINTS
ARE 70 TO 78 OVER THE AREA AGAIN...AND WE HAVE LESS CAPPING THAN
SEEN YESTERDAY.  OUR WIND PROFILE STRONGLY SUPPORTS SUPERCELLS AND
ORGANIZED MULTICELL BOWING LINES.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...
AFTERNOON SUPERCELLS WILL LIKELY FORM ALONG BOUNDARY LEFT BEHIND
FROM THE OVERNIGHT STORMS. ONE BOUNDARY IS FROM WATERLOO THROUGH DES
MOINES...AND ANOTHER IS ALONG INTERSTATE 80 IN IOWA AND ILLINOIS.
ADDITIONAL ISOLATED SUPERCELLS COULD FORM IN OTHER AREAS DURING PEAK
HEATING BETWEEN 3 AND 5 PM. THESE STORMS WILL ALL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING TORRENTIAL RAIN...GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL...SEVERE WIND
GUSTS...AND TORNADOES.  STORMS ALONG BOUNDARIES WITH LOCALLY BACKED
SOUTHEAST WINDS MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING MORE LONG LIVED
TORNADOES.  AS OF 2 PM...STORMS HAVE FIRED IN SOUTHWEST IOWA...AND
NORTHWEST MISSOURI...WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS ALREADY OCCURRING.
THESE STORMS WILL IMPACT THE AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING.

BY EARLY EVENING...A ORGANIZED LINE OF SEVERE STORMS...WITH BOWING
SEGMENTS AND EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS IS LIKELY OVER MIDWEST...AND SHOULD
IMPACT MUCH OF THE CWA. WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH ARE LIKELY...WITH SOME
BOWING SEGMENTS CAPABLE OF OVER 75 MPH THROUGH MID EVENING. EMBEDDED
SUPERCELLS AND NOTCHES IN LINE SEGMENTS MAY ALSO PRODUCE BRIEF
TORNADOES DURING THE STORM EVOLUTION INTO A MATURE LINE.  HEAVY
RAINFALL MAY RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING DUE TO RAINFALL RATES...BUT
THIS SEEMS A LOW RISK IN ANY ONE SPOT AND NO FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL
BE ISSUED AT THIS TIME...THOUGH ONE MAY BE REQUIRED ONCE IT BECOMES
CLEAR ON WHERE THE STORMS MAY TRAIN OR PRODUCE THE MOST SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL.

LATER TONIGHT...AFTER 10 PM...SKIES SHOULD CLEAR GRADUALLY AND WINDS
WILL BECOME WESTERLY AS DRY AIR FILTERS IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. NO
ADDITIONAL SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED.  SATURDAY APPEARS
PLEASANT...WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND HIGHS IN THE LOWER
TO MID 80S.
...ERVIN...

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY...SUMMER TYPE WEATHER
PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE ECMWF/GFS ARE SIMILAR IN PROGGING AN
500MB SHORTWAVE TO MOVE ACROSS KANSAS..NEBRASKA AND WESTERN IOWA ON
SUNDAY. MOST OF THE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE SHOULD PASS TO
OUR WEST...BUT THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE IT COULD PRODUCE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY. BOTH MODELS THEN BUILD AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE OVER THE UPPER MID WEST ON MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS
RIDGE SHOULD KEEP THE AREA MAINLY DRY. HOWEVER...HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL BE HOT...RANGING IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES EACH
DAY. SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL ALSO BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S
WHICH WILL PRODUCE VERY MUGGY AND HUMID CONDITIONS.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE
POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS THE LONG RANGE MODELS PROG MULTIPLE
WEAK SHORTWAVES TO MOVE NEAR OR ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. ...KUHL...

&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD EXCEPT
FOR IN AREAS OF +TSRAGR. ANY +TSRAGR WILL BE CABLE OF PRODUCING LIFR
CONDITIONS WITH CIGS BELOW 1000FT...VSBYS BELOW 1/2SM FG AND STRONG
WINDS VRB35G50KT.  A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA.  ...KUHL...

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

ERVIN/KUHL

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
931 AM CDT FRI JUN 19 2009

IAZ040>042-051>054-063>068-076>078-087>089-098-099-ILZ001-002-007-
009-015>018-024>026-034-035-MOZ009-010-200945-
BUCHANAN-DELAWARE-DUBUQUE-BENTON-LINN-JONES-JACKSON-IOWA-JOHNSON-
CEDAR-CLINTON-MUSCATINE-SCOTT-KEOKUK-WASHINGTON-LOUISA-JEFFERSON-
HENRY IA-DES MOINES-VAN BUREN-LEE-JO DAVIESS-STEPHENSON-CARROLL-
WHITESIDE-ROCK ISLAND-HENRY IL-BUREAU-PUTNAM-MERCER-HENDERSON-
WARREN-HANCOCK-MCDONOUGH-SCOTLAND-CLARK-
931 AM CDT FRI JUN 19 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
ILLINOIS...NORTHWEST ILLINOIS...WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...EAST
CENTRAL IOWA...NORTHEAST IOWA...SOUTHEAST IOWA AND NORTHEAST
MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA TODAY AND ARE LIKELY TO
BE SEVERE AND PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. THE ATMOSPHERE IS
VERY UNSTABLE AND WINDS ALOFT SUPPORT WELL ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS. INTENSE RAINFALL
WILL OCCUR WITH THESE STORMS THAT MAY CAUSE MINOR FLOODING. WHERE
MULTIPLE THUNDERSTORMS TRACK OVER THE SAME AREA...FLASH FLOODING
IS LIKELY.

THE FIRST GROUP OF THUNDERSTORMS IS CURRENTLY EXITING THE
AREA...AFTER PRODUCING SIGNIFICANT WIND DAMAGE AND SOME LARGE HAIL
OVER EASTERN IOWA AND NORTHWEST ILLINOIS.

THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL END LATER TONIGHT WHEN THE COLD
FRONT EXITS THE AREA.

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ALMOST ALL OF THE AREA UNDER A
MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...THUS AN EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT
CONFERENCE CALL IS SCHEDULED FOR 11 AM TODAY TO DISCUSS THE SEVERE
THREAT.

IN ADDITION...SOME AREA RIVERS ARE EXPERIENCING GENERALLY MINOR
FLOODING. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST FLOOD STATEMENTS AND FLOOD
WARNINGS FOR DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS LIKELY TODAY. REPORTS OF STRONG WINDS...
WIND DAMAGE AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE APPRECIATED.

ERVIN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
445 PM CDT FRI JUN 19 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0442 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 NE PLEASANT PLAIN     41.17N 91.83W
06/19/2009                   WASHINGTON         IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            WINDS AT LEAST 70 MPH PUSHING PARKED CAR BACKWARDS WITH
            CAR POINTED INTO WIND. TREES ALSO BEING BLOWN OVER IN THE
            AREA.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
452 PM CDT FRI JUN 19 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0425 PM     TSTM WND DMG     MACOMB                  40.47N 90.68W
06/19/2009                   MCDONOUGH          IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TREE DOWN ACROSS INTERSECTION OF GRANT STREET AND SOUTH
            JOHNSON STREET. TIME ESTIMATED.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
457 PM CDT FRI JUN 19 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0454 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 NNE CHARLIE HEATH MEM 40.61N 91.87W
06/19/2009                   VAN BUREN          IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            3 TO 4 INCH DIAMETER BRANCHES DOWN.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
459 PM CDT FRI JUN 19 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0450 PM     FLASH FLOOD      MARENGO                 41.80N 92.07W
06/19/2009                   IOWA               IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            WATER OVER ONE LANE OF HIGHWAY 6. ALSO 1.80 INCHES OF
            RAIN SINCE 3 PM.

&&

LEGRO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
505 PM CDT FRI JUN 19 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0502 PM     FLASH FLOOD      LADORA                  41.76N 92.19W
06/19/2009                   IOWA               IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            MEASURED 3.4 INCHES OF RAIN. A LOT OF FLOODING. SEVERAL
            ROADS FLOODED AND CLOSED INCLUDING THE INTERSTATE.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
506 PM CDT FRI JUN 19 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0502 PM     HEAVY RAIN       LADORA                  41.76N 92.19W
06/19/2009  M3.40 INCH       IOWA               IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            1 HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL.

&&