River Flood Warning 110, NWS Quad Cities, IA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
327 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
AT 3 AM...LARGE AREA OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN CONTINUES OVER
FORECAST AREA. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED NEAR KANSAS
CITY WITH EAST-WEST BOUNDARY ALONG IA/MO BORDER. ALL SYNOPTIC
SCALE FACTORS AND NOWCAST TOOLS SUPPORT WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN TO
CONTINUE TO IMPACT REGION NEXT 8-12 PLUS HOURS. HI-RES ECMWF BEST
ON THIS SYSTEM ALSO SUPPORTING AREAS OF HEAVY RAINS INTO LATE
TODAY. SURFACE LOW TO TAKE NEAR IDEAL HEAVY RAIN TRACK TO NEAR
QUINCY ILLINOIS BY EARLY EVENING. ..NICHOLS..

&&

.SHORT TERM...
RADAR TRENDS PAST 3 HOURS SUPPORT LOCAL TOOLS AND TECHNIQUES AND
ADJUSTED FORCING OF HI-RES ECMWF OF LARGE SWATH OF 1 TO LOCALLY 2 PLUS
INCHES TODAY OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL. HEAVIEST AXIS SUPPORTED TO RUN
FROM +/- 40 MILES EITHER SIDE OF A NEAR FAIRFIELD TO QUAD CITIES TO
NEAR STERLING LINE. THIS WATER...ON TOP OF SIGNIFICANT AREAS OF 2
PLUS INCHES PAST 30 HOURS SUPPORTS LARGE AREAS OF RIVER FLOODING
AND SOME SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOODING LATER TODAY. WILL HIGHLIGHT
THIS IN ALL FORECAST PRODUCTS. A MAJOR FLOODING RISK IS SUPPORTED
ATTM FOR DAY SHIFT TO REASSESS. RADAR QPF TRENDS FROM SURFACE
REPORTS ARE CLOSE. THIS IS OMINOUS AS HAVE TOTAL STORM RAINFALL
VALUES OF OVER 10 INCHES ALREADY IN KEOKUK AND WASHINGTON
COUNTIES. ALSO LARGE SWATHS OF OVER 3 INCHES. LOCAL SHERIFF
OFFICES REPORT HEAVY RAIN ONGOING FOR PAST 4 PLUS HOURS WITH
RAINFALL RATES OF ONE QUARTER TO HALF INCH AN HOUR WITH ISOLATED
NEAR 1 INCH AN HOUR REPORTS. ..NICHOLS..

.LONG TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING CONTINUES TONIGHT UNTIL
UPPER TROUGH AND LOW LEVEL DEFORMATION AXIS SHIFTS EAST/SE. HAVE
EXTENDED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR FAR EASTERN IA COUNTIES AND
NORTHWEST IL UNTIL 06Z AT WHICH TIME THE SHORT TERM MODELS GENERALLY
DEPICT THE INVERTED TROUGH NORTH OF THE SURFACE LOW FINALLY
TRANSITIONING EAST INTO N CENTRAL IL. RESULTING INFLUX OF DRIER AIR
ON THE LOW LEVEL NE FLOW...AND AXIS OF HIGH PW AIRMASS SHIFTING
SOUTH SHOULD SHOULD END THE RAIN FROM NW TO SE. HAVE ADDITIONAL QPF
VALUES IN QUARTER TO HALF INCH RANGE OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE
EAST...WITH CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING AND LOCAL HIGH RAINFALL
RATES EARLY IN THE EVENING REQUIRING THE WATCH EXTENSION. WILL KEEP
LOW CHANCES FOR MAINLY AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS FRI AS STEEPER MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

STRONG UPPER LOW BUILDS INTO THE GREAT LAKES OVER THE WEEKEND WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED UNSEASONABLY COOL AIR LINGERING
WELL INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. 00Z ECMWF AND GFS ARE
TRENDING TOWARD A MORE CONSISTENT AND SIMILAR SOLUTION WITH THE
COOLEST H8 TEMPERATURES ON SUN...INCREASING CONFIDENCE OF WIDESPREAD
HIGHS STRUGGLING TO EXCEED THE 60S. SUN NIGHT LOOKS THE COOLEST WITH
LOWS IN THE 40S. WITH GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUING A NW FLOW ALOFT AND
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN THE VICINITY THROUGH AT LEAST TUE...HAVE
LOWERED TEMPERATURES SOME MON AND TUE.  ..SHEETS..

&&

.AVIATION...
EXTENDED PERIODS OF IFR AND LIFR CONDITIONS IN RAIN AND HEAVY RAIN
THROUGH 00Z. SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER POSSIBLE AT BRL TAF TODAY.
CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE TO MVFR OVERNIGHT AS RAIN ENDS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
CENTRAL 1/3 OF FORECAST AREA UNDER FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS UNTIL MID MORNING.
THEY PROBABLY WILL NEED TO BE EXTENDED AND EVEN EXPANDED LATER THIS
MORNING. MODERATE OR GREATER IMPACT FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE BY AFTERNOON
ALONG THE HIGHWAY 30 TO 34 CORRIDOR. SIGNIFICANT RIVER FLOODING TO INCLUDE
ISOLATED MAJOR RIVER FLOODING EXPECTED BY LATER TODAY. ALL CURRENT RADAR
TRENDS INDICATE THIS WILL BE A MODERATE TO POSSIBLY MAJOR WATER IMPACT
EVENT TODAY INTO THIS EVENING.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR CLINTON-JACKSON-SCOTT.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR BENTON-BUCHANAN-CEDAR-
     DELAWARE-DES MOINES-DUBUQUE-HENRY IA-IOWA-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-
     JONES-KEOKUK-LINN-LOUISA-MUSCATINE-WASHINGTON.

IL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR BUREAU-CARROLL-HENRY
     IL-JO DAVIESS-MERCER-PUTNAM-ROCK ISLAND-STEPHENSON-
     WHITESIDE.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR HENDERSON-WARREN.

MO...NONE.
&&

NICHOLS/SHEETS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
455 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2009

IAZ040>042-051>054-063>068-076>078-087>089-098-099-ILZ001-002-007-
009-015>018-024>026-034-035-MOZ009-010-280900-
BENTON IA-BUCHANAN IA-BUREAU IL-CARROLL IL-CEDAR IA-CLARK MO-CLINTON
IA-DELAWARE IA-DES MOINES IA-DUBUQUE IA-HANCOCK IL-HENDERSON IL-HENRY
IA-HENRY IL-IOWA IA-JACKSON IA-JEFFERSON IA-JO DAVIESS IL-JOHNSON IA-
JONES IA-KEOKUK IA-LEE IA-LINN IA-LOUISA IA-MCDONOUGH IL-MERCER IL-
MUSCATINE IA-PUTNAM IL-ROCK ISLAND IL-SCOTLAND MO-SCOTT IA-
STEPHENSON IL-VAN BUREN IA-WARREN IL-WASHINGTON IA-WHITESIDE IL-
455 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
ILLINOIS...NORTHWEST ILLINOIS...WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...EAST
CENTRAL IOWA...NORTHEAST IOWA...SOUTHEAST IOWA AND NORTHEAST
MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE EXTENDED PERIODS OF
RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS OVER ALL BUT THE FAR SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE OUTLOOK AREA.  WIDESPREAD AREAS OF AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO
2 INCHES OF RAIN IS EXPECTED BY LATE EVENING. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL
IS EXPECTED TO FALL 40 MILES EITHER SIDE OF A SIGOURNEY TO QUAD
CITIES TO STERLING LINE.  LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO 3 INCHES ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE TODAY INTO THIS EVENING ALONG THIS LINE.  ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL OVER ONE INCH MAY RESULT IN LOCALIZED AREAL AND POSSIBLY
FLASH FLOODING DUE TO ALREADY VERY SATURATED GROUND.  SIGNIFICANT
RIVER FLOODING IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON MANY RIVERS AND TRIBUTARIES
LATER TODAY AND CONTINUE THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SEVERE STORMS
ARE NOT EXPECTED.

FLOODING CAUSED BY RUNOFF FROM RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL WILL DEVELOP OR
CONTINUE ALONG AREA RIVERS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT. ANY REPORTS OF
FLOODING OR SIGNIFICANT PONDING OF WATER WOULD BE APPRECIATED.

NICHOLS/SHEETS

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
826 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0824 AM     FLASH FLOOD      CEDAR RAPIDS            41.97N 91.67W
08/27/2009                   LINN               IA   BROADCAST MEDIA

            J STREET SW REPORTED CLOSED DUE TO NEW FLOODING. REPORTED
            BY KGAN TV.

&&

ERVIN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
828 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 AM     HEAVY RAIN       VINTON                  42.16N 92.03W
08/27/2009  M1.45 INCH       BENTON             IA   CO-OP OBSERVER

            24 HOUR TOTAL.

&&

WE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
830 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 AM     HEAVY RAIN       BELLE PLAINE            41.90N 92.27W
08/27/2009  M2.53 INCH       BENTON             IA   CO-OP OBSERVER

            24 HOUR TOTAL.

&&

WE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
832 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0827 AM     FLASH FLOOD      CEDAR RAPIDS            41.97N 91.67W
08/27/2009                   LINN               IA   BROADCAST MEDIA

            NUMEROUS BASEMENTS FLOODING AT 13TH STREET NW NEAR
            ROOSEVELT SCHOOL. REPORTED BY KGAN TV.

&&

ERVIN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
848 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0800 AM     HEAVY RAIN       TIPTON                  41.77N 91.13W
08/27/2009  M2.28 INCH       CEDAR              IA   CO-OP OBSERVER

            24 HOUR TOTAL.

&&

WE