River Flood Warning 108, NWS Quad Cities, IA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
327 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
AT 3 AM...LARGE AREA OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN CONTINUES OVER
FORECAST AREA. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED NEAR KANSAS
CITY WITH EAST-WEST BOUNDARY ALONG IA/MO BORDER. ALL SYNOPTIC
SCALE FACTORS AND NOWCAST TOOLS SUPPORT WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN TO
CONTINUE TO IMPACT REGION NEXT 8-12 PLUS HOURS. HI-RES ECMWF BEST
ON THIS SYSTEM ALSO SUPPORTING AREAS OF HEAVY RAINS INTO LATE
TODAY. SURFACE LOW TO TAKE NEAR IDEAL HEAVY RAIN TRACK TO NEAR
QUINCY ILLINOIS BY EARLY EVENING. ..NICHOLS..

&&

.SHORT TERM...
RADAR TRENDS PAST 3 HOURS SUPPORT LOCAL TOOLS AND TECHNIQUES AND
ADJUSTED FORCING OF HI-RES ECMWF OF LARGE SWATH OF 1 TO LOCALLY 2 PLUS
INCHES TODAY OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL. HEAVIEST AXIS SUPPORTED TO RUN
FROM +/- 40 MILES EITHER SIDE OF A NEAR FAIRFIELD TO QUAD CITIES TO
NEAR STERLING LINE. THIS WATER...ON TOP OF SIGNIFICANT AREAS OF 2
PLUS INCHES PAST 30 HOURS SUPPORTS LARGE AREAS OF RIVER FLOODING
AND SOME SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOODING LATER TODAY. WILL HIGHLIGHT
THIS IN ALL FORECAST PRODUCTS. A MAJOR FLOODING RISK IS SUPPORTED
ATTM FOR DAY SHIFT TO REASSESS. RADAR QPF TRENDS FROM SURFACE
REPORTS ARE CLOSE. THIS IS OMINOUS AS HAVE TOTAL STORM RAINFALL
VALUES OF OVER 10 INCHES ALREADY IN KEOKUK AND WASHINGTON
COUNTIES. ALSO LARGE SWATHS OF OVER 3 INCHES. LOCAL SHERIFF
OFFICES REPORT HEAVY RAIN ONGOING FOR PAST 4 PLUS HOURS WITH
RAINFALL RATES OF ONE QUARTER TO HALF INCH AN HOUR WITH ISOLATED
NEAR 1 INCH AN HOUR REPORTS. ..NICHOLS..

.LONG TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING CONTINUES TONIGHT UNTIL
UPPER TROUGH AND LOW LEVEL DEFORMATION AXIS SHIFTS EAST/SE. HAVE
EXTENDED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR FAR EASTERN IA COUNTIES AND
NORTHWEST IL UNTIL 06Z AT WHICH TIME THE SHORT TERM MODELS GENERALLY
DEPICT THE INVERTED TROUGH NORTH OF THE SURFACE LOW FINALLY
TRANSITIONING EAST INTO N CENTRAL IL. RESULTING INFLUX OF DRIER AIR
ON THE LOW LEVEL NE FLOW...AND AXIS OF HIGH PW AIRMASS SHIFTING
SOUTH SHOULD SHOULD END THE RAIN FROM NW TO SE. HAVE ADDITIONAL QPF
VALUES IN QUARTER TO HALF INCH RANGE OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE
EAST...WITH CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING AND LOCAL HIGH RAINFALL
RATES EARLY IN THE EVENING REQUIRING THE WATCH EXTENSION. WILL KEEP
LOW CHANCES FOR MAINLY AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS FRI AS STEEPER MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

STRONG UPPER LOW BUILDS INTO THE GREAT LAKES OVER THE WEEKEND WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED UNSEASONABLY COOL AIR LINGERING
WELL INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. 00Z ECMWF AND GFS ARE
TRENDING TOWARD A MORE CONSISTENT AND SIMILAR SOLUTION WITH THE
COOLEST H8 TEMPERATURES ON SUN...INCREASING CONFIDENCE OF WIDESPREAD
HIGHS STRUGGLING TO EXCEED THE 60S. SUN NIGHT LOOKS THE COOLEST WITH
LOWS IN THE 40S. WITH GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUING A NW FLOW ALOFT AND
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN THE VICINITY THROUGH AT LEAST TUE...HAVE
LOWERED TEMPERATURES SOME MON AND TUE.  ..SHEETS..

&&

.AVIATION...
EXTENDED PERIODS OF IFR AND LIFR CONDITIONS IN RAIN AND HEAVY RAIN
THROUGH 00Z. SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER POSSIBLE AT BRL TAF TODAY.
CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE TO MVFR OVERNIGHT AS RAIN ENDS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
CENTRAL 1/3 OF FORECAST AREA UNDER FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS UNTIL MID MORNING.
THEY PROBABLY WILL NEED TO BE EXTENDED AND EVEN EXPANDED LATER THIS
MORNING. MODERATE OR GREATER IMPACT FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE BY AFTERNOON
ALONG THE HIGHWAY 30 TO 34 CORRIDOR. SIGNIFICANT RIVER FLOODING TO INCLUDE
ISOLATED MAJOR RIVER FLOODING EXPECTED BY LATER TODAY. ALL CURRENT RADAR
TRENDS INDICATE THIS WILL BE A MODERATE TO POSSIBLY MAJOR WATER IMPACT
EVENT TODAY INTO THIS EVENING.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR CLINTON-JACKSON-SCOTT.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR BENTON-BUCHANAN-CEDAR-
     DELAWARE-DES MOINES-DUBUQUE-HENRY IA-IOWA-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-
     JONES-KEOKUK-LINN-LOUISA-MUSCATINE-WASHINGTON.

IL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR BUREAU-CARROLL-HENRY
     IL-JO DAVIESS-MERCER-PUTNAM-ROCK ISLAND-STEPHENSON-
     WHITESIDE.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR HENDERSON-WARREN.

MO...NONE.
&&

NICHOLS/SHEETS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
445 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2009

IAZ040>042-051>054-063>068-076>078-087>089-098-099-ILZ001-002-007-
009-015>018-024>026-034-035-MOZ009-010-270900-
BENTON IA-BUCHANAN IA-BUREAU IL-CARROLL IL-CEDAR IA-CLARK MO-CLINTON
IA-DELAWARE IA-DES MOINES IA-DUBUQUE IA-HANCOCK IL-HENDERSON IL-HENRY
IA-HENRY IL-IOWA IA-JACKSON IA-JEFFERSON IA-JO DAVIESS IL-JOHNSON IA-
JONES IA-KEOKUK IA-LEE IA-LINN IA-LOUISA IA-MCDONOUGH IL-MERCER IL-
MUSCATINE IA-PUTNAM IL-ROCK ISLAND IL-SCOTLAND MO-SCOTT IA-
STEPHENSON IL-VAN BUREN IA-WARREN IL-WASHINGTON IA-WHITESIDE IL-
445 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
ILLINOIS...NORTHWEST ILLINOIS...WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...EAST
CENTRAL IOWA...NORTHEAST IOWA...SOUTHEAST IOWA AND NORTHEAST
MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE OUTLOOK AREA
BY LATE TONIGHT.  EPISODES OF THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP
ALONG AND BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY.  THERE IS A RISK OF ADDITIONAL
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES THAT COULD RESULT IN
PONDING OF WATER IN LOW LYING LOCATIONS AND BRING RIVER WATER LEVELS
TO BANKFULL WITH ISOLATED RIVER FLOODING. LOCATIONS ALONG AND
ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 30 ARE MOST SUSCEPTIBLE FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL.  SOME STRONG STORMS MAY ALSO OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE
IOWA-MISSOURI BORDER WITH GUSTY WINDS OVER 40 MPH THE PRIMARY RISK.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY...THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY. CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE FAVORABLE FOR STORMS TO BECOME
SEVERE...HOWEVER SOME MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. LOCALIZED
FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT IN AREAS THAT
BECOME SATURATED FROM SEVERAL HEAVY RAINFALL EVENTS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT LIKELY LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT. ANY REPORTS
OF STRONG WINDS OVER 40 MPH AND ANY HAIL WOULD BE APPRECIATED.

NICHOLS/SHEETS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
959 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0930 PM     HEAVY RAIN       3 NNE CHARLIE HEATH MEM 40.61N 91.87W
08/26/2009  M0.30 INCH       VAN BUREN          IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TOTAL SO FAR.

&&

LE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1150 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1145 PM     HEAVY RAIN       1 SSW BELLE PLAINE      41.89N 92.28W
08/26/2009  M2.00 INCH       BENTON             IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TOTAL FOR TODAY. STILL RAINING.

&&

DLS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
153 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2009

IAZ051>054-063>068-076>078-087>089-ILZ007-009-015>018-024>026-
271300-
BENTON-LINN-JONES-JACKSON-IOWA-JOHNSON-CEDAR-CLINTON-MUSCATINE-
SCOTT-KEOKUK-WASHINGTON-LOUISA-JEFFERSON-HENRY IA-DES MOINES-
CARROLL-WHITESIDE-ROCK ISLAND-HENRY IL-BUREAU-PUTNAM-MERCER-
HENDERSON-WARREN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...VINTON...CEDAR RAPIDS...ANAMOSA...
MAQUOKETA...MARENGO...IOWA CITY...TIPTON...CLINTON...MUSCATINE...
BETTENDORF...DAVENPORT...SIGOURNEY...WASHINGTON...WAPELLO...
FAIRFIELD...MOUNT PLEASANT...BURLINGTON...MOUNT CARROLL...
STERLING...ROCK FALLS...MOLINE...ROCK ISLAND...KEWANEE...
PRINCETON...HENNEPIN...ALEDO...OQUAWKA...MONMOUTH
153 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2009

...HEAVY RAIN MOVING ACROSS THE REGION INTO MID MORNING...

HEAVY RAIN WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH 8 AM. RAINFALL RATES OF ONE QUARTER TO OVER ONE HALF
INCH AN HOUR ARE EXPECTED. BY 8 AM...ADDITIONAL RAIN AMOUNTS OF 1
TO OVER 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN TOTALS WOULD
POSE A RISK OF RIVER FLOODING AND ALSO LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING
IN LOW LYING LOCATIONS AND URBAN AREAS.

EXPECT SIGNIFICANT PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS AND IN LOW-LYING
AREAS...AND RISES IN AREA STREAMS AND CREEKS.

&&

LAT...LON 4185 9183 4185 9139 4185 9137 4142 9137
      4142 9148 4145 9151 4150 9151 4151 9153
      4152 9230 4185 9230

NICHOLS

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