Severe Thunderstorm Warning 54, NWS Des Moines, IA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
614 PM CDT SUN JUN 7 2009

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION AND WATCHES...

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
QUESTIONS THIS EVENING REALLY NOT WHETHER THERE WILL BE PRECIP...BUT
LOCATIONS AND SFC BASED VS ELEVATED.  BIGGER PICTURE HAS JET AND
ASSOCIATED SHORT WAVES INTO KS/NE...AND PARENT WAVE FARTHER BACK
INTO THE ROCKIES.  UNLIKE YESTERDAY...SYNOPTIC SCALE UVM IS MORE
PREVALENT UPSTREAM AND FAIRLY OBVIOUS IN LEAF-LIKE IR STLT IMAGERY
DUE TO THESE FEATURES.   19Z TOP SOUNDING STILL REFLECTS EML AND
FORMIDABLE CIN DUE TO 700/750MB WARM LAYER...HOWEVER THIS IS NOT
APPARENT FARTHER NORTH IN THE COOLER AIR TOWARD OAX.  19Z RUC
MLCAPE/CIN LOOKS TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH CAPE AMOUNTS AND CIN
EROSION...BUT GENERAL AREAS SEEM OK.  THUS EXPECT INITIATION TO
OCCUR SOMEWHERE BETWEEN TOP/OAX...POSSIBLY AROUND KBIE/KFNB NEAR
BEST 1000-950MB THETA-E CONVERGENCE.  INSTABILITY AND SHEAR /DEEP
AND SHALLOW/ APPEAR SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS...POSSIBLY TORNADIC.

EVEN IF THIS DOES NOT OCCUR...ELEVATED CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER
NERN NE LIKELY A SIGN OF THINGS TO COME.  STRONG LIFT AND MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE ALONG 305K SFC SURGES RIGHT INTO IA TONIGHT AHEAD OF
APPROACHING FORCING.  AIRMASS MODIFIES QUITE A BIT WITH DIMINISHING
CIN AND MORE THAN ADEQUATE ELEVATED CAPES...SO HAVE BLANKETED
CATEGORICAL POPS.  SVR HAIL QUITE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AND CANNOT RULE
OUT AN ISOLD TORNADO THREAT EITHER AS 0-1KM SHEAR/HELICITY INCREASES
WITH LLJ AHEAD OF TRIPLE POINT.  VARIOUS HEAVY RAIN PARAMETERS ARE
FAVORABLE AS WELL IN TERMS OF THERMODYNAMICS AND STORM MOTION SO
HAVE INCLUDED HEAVY RAIN MENTION.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL QUICKLY PUSH INTO EASTERN IOWA AFTER 12Z
MONDAY WITH THE REMANTS OF THE EARLY MORNING MCS LINGERING ACROSS
EASTERN COUNTIES. DRY AND COOLER AIR WILL PUSH INTO THE STATE BEHIND
THE FRONT MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S AND 70S. THE SFC RIDGE WILL
MOVE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE HEADING EAST TUESDAY. THERE IS
STILL A WIDE VARIETY OF MODEL SOLUTIONS REGARDING THE NEXT
SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE. THE LATEST OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF SPREAD RAIN
INTO THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY...WHILE THE NAM
DELAYS THE ARRIVAL UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW...WILL MAINTAIN DRY
FORECAST DURING THE DAY FOR COLLABORATION PURPOSES...AND INTRODUCE
POPS TUESDAY NIGHT. WEDNESDAY WILL ALSO LIKELY BE AN ACTIVE DAY WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER STRONGER SHORT WAVE TROUGH. IN THE LATER
PERIODS...THE NEXT BEST CHANCE OF RAIN APPEARS TO BE LATE IN THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...08/00Z
SURFACE FRONT REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS THE AREA. NORTH OF THE FRONT
I.E. AT KMCW IFR CIGS AND INTERMITTENT MVFR BR PERSIST WHILE SOUTH
OF THE FRONT AT THE OTHER TERMINAKLS MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL
ATTM. HOWEVER TSTORMS ARE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA AND WILL PRODUCE
PERIODS OF IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS THIS EVENING. THESE WILL BE HIT
AND MISS SO WILL ONLY INCLUDE MORE THAN VCTS FOR HIGH CONFIDENCE
IMPACTS IN THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE TAFS. ADDITIONAL TSTORM
DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...BUT AGAIN UNCERTAINTY REGARDING
TIMING AND LOCATION OF THIS CONVECTION PRECLUDES MORE THAN VCTS
THROUGH THE NIGHT ATTM. ALSO...THE SURFACE FRONT WILL FINALLY MOVE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE EARLY TO MID MORNING HOURS
MONDAY...WITH IFR CIGS SPREADING BEHIND THE FRONT THEN LIFTING TO
LOW MVFR AROUND FL012-015 BY MID MORNING AND PERSISTING AT LEAST
INTO THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TORNADO WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM CDT FOR ADAIR-ADAMS-AUDUBON-
CASS-CLARKE-DALLAS-DECATUR-GUTHRIE-MADISON-RINGGOLD-TAYLOR-UNION.

TORNADO WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT FOR APPANOOSE-BOONE-
DAVIS-JASPER-LUCAS-MAHASKA-MARION-MARSHALL-MONROE-POLK-POWESHIEK-
STORY-TAMA-WAPELLO-WARREN-WAYNE.

&&

SHORT TERM...SMALL
LONG TERM...KINNEY
AVIATION...LEE

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
323 PM CDT SUN JUN 7 2009

IAZ004>007-015>017-023>028-033>039-044>050-057>062-070>075-
081>086-092>097-081100-
EMMET-KOSSUTH-WINNEBAGO-WORTH-PALO ALTO-HANCOCK-CERRO GORDO-
POCAHONTAS-HUMBOLDT-WRIGHT-FRANKLIN-BUTLER-BREMER-SAC-CALHOUN-
WEBSTER-HAMILTON-HARDIN-GRUNDY-BLACK HAWK-CRAWFORD-CARROLL-GREENE-
BOONE-STORY-MARSHALL-TAMA-AUDUBON-GUTHRIE-DALLAS-POLK-JASPER-
POWESHIEK-CASS-ADAIR-MADISON-WARREN-MARION-MAHASKA-ADAMS-UNION-
CLARKE-LUCAS-MONROE-WAPELLO-TAYLOR-RINGGOLD-DECATUR-WAYNE-
APPANOOSE-DAVIS-
323 PM CDT SUN JUN 7 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL IOWA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD ACRO 2 INCHES OF
RAINFALL RECENTLY COULD HAVE SOME ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING
TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH A WIDESPREAD THREAT IS NOT ANTICIPATED. LESS
RAIN IS EXPECTED TO THE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80 AND THE FLASH FLOOD
THREAT IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THE OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT APPEARS TO BE LOW AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED LATE THIS AFTERNOON...THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
547 PM CDT SUN JUN 07 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0543 PM     HAIL             3 N ADAIR               41.54N 94.64W
06/07/2009  E1.00 INCH       GUTHRIE            IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

PODRAZIK

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
644 PM CDT SUN JUN 07 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0627 PM     TSTM WND DMG     ADEL                    41.61N 94.03W
06/07/2009                   DALLAS             IA   AMATEUR RADIO

            AMATEUR RADIO OPERATOR REPORTED TREE DAMAGE IN ADEL WITH
            UP TO 10 INCH DIAMETER BRANCHES DOWN.

&&

LEE