Severe Thunderstorm Warning 151, NWS Dodge City, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
333 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2009

.DISCUSSION...

DAYS 1-2...

THE UPPER AIR ANALYSIS THIS MORNING CONTINUED TO DEPICT A BROAD
UPPER LEVEL JET FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST THOUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS,
AND A 100+ KT JET STREAK THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. A WEAKER
JET THROUGH THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. A MINOR SHORTWAVE WAS MOVING
ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS BEHIND THE PREVIOUS NIGHTS MCS. AN UPPER
TROUGH WAS IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WITH WARM DOUBLE
DIGIT 700 MB TEMPERATURES BEING DRAWN NORTHWARD INTO THE HIGH PLAINS
OF KANSAS AND NEBRASKA. AT 850 MB, HIGH THETA-E AIR AIR WAS IN PLACE
WITH +22 DEGREES AT 850 MB WITH DEWPOINTS IN EXCESS OF +10 DEGREES.

THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL CENTER AROUND SEVERE WEATHER
INCLUDING LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WIND AND TORNADOES THIS EVENING, AND
THEN MAINLY TEMPERATURES AND TO LESSER EXTENT THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

THE SURFACE ANALYSIS DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON SHOWED A WARM FRONT
FROM AROUND SYRACUSE THROUGH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA, WHILE ANOTHER WARM
FRONT WAS POSITIONED FROM AROUND NORTH PLATTE, TO TOPEKA AND
SPRINGFIELD MO. THE WEAK JET STREAK MOVING FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES
AND POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION AROUND 700 MB SHOULD HELP INDUCE
SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS. THE
SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS WILL ALLOW WINDS TO BACK WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR
BETWEEN THE TWO FRONTAL POSITIONS AND ALLOW SOME BOUNDARY LAYER
FRONTOGENESIS TO OCCUR AND HELPING TO GENERATE CONVECTION. THE
BACKING WINDS IN THE LOWEST LEVELS ARE GENERATING STRONGLY CURVED
HODOGRAPHS IN THE LOWEST KILOMETER, SO THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD QUICKLY
BECOME SUPERCELLS WITH A LARGE HAIL AND WIND THREAT. A STRONG EHI
AXIS SHOULD BE IN PLACE NEAR THE TIGHTENING FRONTAL ZONE FOR AN
ENHANCED TORNADO ENVIRONMENT.

BY MORNING THERE SHOULD BE AN EASTWARD EXITING MCS OVER EASTERN
KANSAS AS WELL AS A BIT OF A SLIGHT AIRMASS MODIFICATION ACROSS THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE. THE FRONT BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD BE
OVER NORTHERN OKLAHOMA, SO IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION TO HAVE A
FEW AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS IN THE VICINITY OF OUR FAR SOUTHEAST
COUNTIES.

A SOUTH WIND COMPONENT WILL RETURN TUESDAY NIGHT WITH STRONG WARM
AIR ADVECTION WITH THE ADVANCING RIDGE. 700 MB TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM INTO THE +14 TO +15 DEGREE RANGE BY WEDNESDAY EFFECTIVE CAPPING
SOUTHWEST KANSAS FROM ANY THREAT OF CONVECTION, DESPITE MUGGY 60S
DEWPOINT READINGS. PLENTY OF MODEL SPREAD EXITS IN HIGH TEMPERATURES
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, HOWEVER THE MOST REASONABLE SOLUTION IS
AROUND 6-8 DEGREES WARMER BY WEDNESDAY GIVEN THE STRONG WAA
ALOFT/DOWNSLOPE AND DRIER AIR BEHIND DRYLINE IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST.

RUSSELL

DAYS 3-7...

THE 12Z RUNS OF THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN VERY GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LATTER PART OF THIS WEEK. THE MODELS SHOW A
LARGE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. THE NORTHERN PART OF THE TROUGH MOVES EAST WHILE THE
SOUTHERN END CUTS OFF WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. THE NORTHERN PART
TRACKS OUT ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY AND PUSHES A COLD FRONT ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS THURSDAY NIGHT.
THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE WARMING UP AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM WITH +14C TO +16C TEMPERATURES AT 700 MB SPREADING NORTHEAST
INTO THE AREA. THIS MAY KEEP A LID ON THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
SOUTHWEST PART OF THE CWA. WITH A LITTLE LESS CAPPING FARTHER
NORTHEAST THINK THAT AT LEAST SOME SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS COULD
OCCUR. HAVE RAISED POPS UP IN THE NORTHEAST CWA TO NEAR 30 PERCENT
WHILE TRENDING DOWN TO 15 PERCENT IN THE SOUTHWEST.

THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND THE MODELS SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING
BACK INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS.  THE CLOSED LOW OFF OF
BAJA IS EJECTED NORTHEAST TOWARD THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AS ANOTHER
SYSTEM APPROACHES THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.  THE MODELS DIFFER ON THE
TIMING OF THIS FEATURE LIFTING OUT BUT THERE APPEARS TO BE A
DEFINITE SIGNAL. THIS COULD BRING A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO
WESTERN KANSAS SUNDAY OR SUNDAY NIGHT. AS THIS FEATURE TOPS THE
RIDGE THE MODELS SHOWS ANOTHER COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTH ACROSS
WESTERN KANSAS AROUND SUNDAY OR MONDAY. WILL MAINTAIN SOME VERY
SMALL POPS WITH NO MENTION OF STORMS FOR THAT TIME PERIOD DUE TO THE
UNCERTAINTY.

INTO WEEK TWO THE GFS AND ECMWF SUGGEST THAT THE UPPER RIDGE WILL
CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND PROPAGATE WEST. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN
NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION
FOR THE PERIOD.

&&

AVIATION...

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE IN
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. A SURFACE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS
SOUTHWEST KANSAS...GENERALLY TO THE SOUTH OF GARDEN CITY AND DODGE
CITY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. AREAS ALONG AND NORTHEAST OF THIS
BOUNDARY HAVE THE GREATEST THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.  LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM
BETWEEN 21Z AND 03Z.  THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL DIMINISH BETWEEN
03Z AND 06Z. MOIST COOL OUTFLOW COULD RESULT IN LOW STRATUS AND MVFR
CIGS AT THE TAF SITES LATER TONIGHT. ANY LOW CEILINGS THAT DEVELOP
SHOULD DISSIPATE AROUND OR AFTER 15Z TUESDAY.

GERARD

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  65  91  66  95 /  60  10  10  10
GCK  62  91  64  94 /  50  10  10  10
EHA  60  93  64  97 /  30   0   0   0
LBL  63  93  65  97 /  50   0   0   0
HYS  65  89  66  94 /  80  10  10  10
P28  69  92  69  99 /  70  10  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

TORNADO WATCH 423 FOR ALL BUT EXTREME WESTERN FORECAST AREA UNTIL
11 PM THIS EVENING.

&&

FN33/02

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
330 AM CDT MON JUN 15 2009

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-160900-
TREGO-ELLIS-SCOTT-LANE-NESS-RUSH-HAMILTON-KEARNY-FINNEY-HODGEMAN-
PAWNEE-STAFFORD-STANTON-GRANT-HASKELL-GRAY-FORD-EDWARDS-KIOWA-
PRATT-MORTON-STEVENS-SEWARD-MEADE-CLARK-COMANCHE-BARBER-
330 AM CDT MON JUN 15 2009 /230 AM MDT MON JUN 15 2009/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL...SOUTH
CENTRAL...SOUTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING MAINLY NORTH OF A WARM FRONT. THE WARM FRONT IS
FORECAST BE FROM GARDEN CITY TO NEAR DODGE CITY AND PRATT BY
AFTERNOON. SUPERCELLS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY
FROM SCOTT CITY AND DIGHTON AROUND 3 PM THEN MOVING EAST TO
SOUTHEAST TOWARD NESS CITY...JETMORE...LACROSSE...LARNED...KINSLEY
AND SAINT JOHN DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

STORM SPOTTERS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FROM AN AREA BETWEEN
GARDEN CITY AND WAKEENEY...AND BETWEEN HAYS AND SAINT JOHN AFTER
3 PM TO AROUND MIDNIGHT.

&&

FOR MORE INFORMATION VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/DDC

06

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
551 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0537 PM     TORNADO          4 SE DODGE CITY         37.72N 99.96W
06/15/2009                   FORD               KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

RBURG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
602 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0527 PM     TORNADO          2 E DODGE CITY          37.76N 99.98W
06/15/2009                   FORD               KS   NWS EMPLOYEE

&&

RBURG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
606 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0530 PM     HAIL             2 SSW DODGE CITY        37.74N 100.03W
06/15/2009  E0.88 INCH       FORD               KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

GERARD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
616 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0504 PM     TORNADO          4 SW MACKSVILLE         37.92N 99.02W
06/15/2009                   EDWARDS            KS   STORM CHASER

&&

MSCOTT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
618 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0527 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 NW DODGE CITY         37.78N 100.04W
06/15/2009                   FORD               KS   NWS EMPLOYEE

            SIX INCH TREE LIMBS BLOWN DOWN.

0544 PM     HAIL             5 E DODGE CITY          37.76N 99.92W
06/15/2009  E1.25 INCH       FORD               KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

RBURG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
636 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0532 PM     HAIL             WNW DODGE CITY          37.76N 100.02W
06/15/2009  E1.00 INCH       FORD               KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            WATCHED A ROTATING WALL CLOUD ONE MILE TO THE SOUTH.

&&

GERARD