Severe Thunderstorm Warning 136, NWS Dodge City, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
356 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2009

.DISCUSSION...

DAYS 1-2...

THE 12 UTC UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATED A BROAD JET EXTENDING FROM
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST INTO NEW ENGLAND WITH A 100+KT JET MAX FROM THE
CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES. A 700-500 MB RIDGE WAS
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS WITH A BOUNDARY LAYER WARM FRONT
EXTENDING FROM EASTERN COLORADO THROUGH THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND
SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA.  RICH MOISTURE POOLING ALONG THE BOUNDARY
EXTENDS THROUGH THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AT 850 MB, WITH DEW POINTS
IN THE 10-15 DEG C RANGE.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR AGAIN THIS EVENING ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST KANSAS. AN AREA OF MODERATE INSTABILITY ALONG THE SURFACE
WARM FRONT WAS DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON AND MAY BECOME THE FOCAL
POINT FOR SEVERE CONVECTION INITIATION LATE INTO THE AFTERNOON
ANYWHERE FROM SOUTHEAST COLORADO THROUGH THE OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS
PANHANDLE, WITH STORM MOTIONS  SUPERCELLS WOULD BE THE FAVORED
CONVECTIVE MODE INITIALLY WITH THE BEST TORNADO THREAT OVER FAR
SOUTHWEST KANSAS.  A TRANSITION INTO CLUSTERS OR LINE SEGMENTS OF A
MORE ELEVATED NATURE WITH PRIMARY HAIL THREAT OVER SOME PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL KANSAS IS POSSIBLE LATER, FOCUSED OVERNIGHT ALONG A SURFACE
BOUNDARY THAT STARTED OUT ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS BUT APPEARS TO BE
SHIFTING SOUTH WARD AGAIN AS MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS INS OVERSPREADING
THE STATES.

ANOTHER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY AGAIN ON MONDAY OR LATER
MONDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, BUT WARMER AIR WILL HAVE LIKELY HAVE
SHIFTED FARTHER NORTH POSSIBLY PLACING THE CONVECTION INVITATION
POINT CLOSER TO THE I-70 CORRIDOR. THE OPERATIONAL MODELS OUTPUT
SIGNIFICANT QPF ANYWHERE FROM SE NEBRASKA TO SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS BY
12 UTC TUESDAY, AND MAY BE RELEASING INSTABILITY COINCIDING ALONG A
LOW LEVEL JET FORCING FEATURES IN THOSE REGIONS OF THE DEVELOPING
WARM SECTOR.

A GENERAL  WARMING TREND IS UNDERWAY AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
AROUND 10 DEGREES WARMER ON AVERAGE ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN AND WESTERN
SECTIONS AS COMPARED TO AROUND THE HAYS AREA IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. CLOUDS WILL PLAY A MAJOR FACTOR IN DIURNAL HEATING BEING
REALIZED BUT THE FARTHER THE WARM 850-700 MB AIR SURGES, THE MORE
LIKELY  SUNNY SKIES WILL RAMP SURFACE TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 90S
MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

RUSSELL

DAYS 3-7...

A REGIME MORE TYPICAL OF SUMMER WILL EVOLVE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD
AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES AND
THE MEAN TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY RETROGRADES TO
THE EASTERN PACIFIC. THE BIGGEST CHALLENGES FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 ARE
THE FOLLOWING...THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG A WEAK CONVERGENCE ZONE FROM EAST CENTRAL COLORADO INTO
CENTRAL KANSAS ON WEDNESDAY...COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A
PACIFIC COLD FRONT THAT MOVES ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND HOW HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RISE WITH
VERY WARM AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE BUT LOTS OF WET
GROUND AND EVAPOTRANSPIRATION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

TROPICAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY REMAINS ENHANCED AROUND 140E WHILE A
WEAK AREA OF ENHANCED THUNDERSTORMS HAS PROPAGATED EASTWARD INTO THE
WESTERN HEMISPHERE PROJECTING ONTO PHASE 8 OF THE WHEELER/HENDON
PHASE SPACE DIAGRAM. CONTINUED EASTWARD PROPAGATION OF THE  COHERENT
SIGNAL INTO PHASE 1 IS CONSISTENT WITH RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS AND SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. THE NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN
REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS EVOLUTION, ALTHOUGH THERE ARE
DIFFERENCES IN DETAILS. THE 00Z ECMWF IS LESS AMPLIFIED THAN THE GFS
WITH THE TROUGH THAT DIGS OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST NEXT WEEKEND, BUT
THE 12Z ECMWF IS TRENDING TOWARD A MORE AMPLIFIED SOLUTION. THE
ECMWF SEEMS TO HAVE A REASONABLE HANDLE ON THE ATMOSPHERE AND
LARGELY WAS FOLLOWED FOR GRID MODIFICATIONS IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE IN PROGRESS TUESDAY EVENING ALONG A WEAK
CONVERGENCE ZONE/OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY NEAR THE OKLAHOMA BORDER, BUT
VERY WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND RISING HEIGHTS TUESDAY NIGHT
LIKELY WILL PRECLUDE ANY ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS. WEDNESDAY SHOULD
BE VERY WARM WITH H8 TEMPERATURES NEAR 30C OVER FAR SOUTHWEST
KANSAS. THE WET GROUND AND ACTIVELY GROWING PLANTS MAY CONSUME
ENOUGH ENERGY TO KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN SLIGHTLY, BUT HIGHS IN THE
MID 90S STILL ARE REASONABLE. A WEAK CONVERGENCE ZONE WILL PERSIST
IN NORTHERN KANSAS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, BUT GETTING A THUNDERSTORM
TO PENETRATE THE EXTREMELY WARM MID LEVELS WILL BE DIFFICULT. BOTH
THE GFS AND THE ECMWF FORECAST H7 TEMPERATURES OF 14C TO 16C. IF ANY
PULSE THUNDERSTORMS DO FORM, THEY WILL POSE AN ISOLATED WIND
THREAT.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NEAR 145W WILL DIG INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN PART
OF THE COUNTRY AND PROGRESS TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY THURSDAY. A
PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL ENTER NORTHERN KANSAS THURSDAY AND MOVE
ACROSS ALL BUT THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF KANSAS BY FRIDAY MORNING.
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND DIVERGENCE IN ADVANCE OF
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LIKELY WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WITH THE FRONT LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BEFORE THE HEAT
RETURNS SUNDAY. UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS
AND A NORTHWARD SHIFTED JET WILL CONTINUE NEXT WEEK, AND TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME HEAT CAN BE EXPECTED IN KANSAS.

&&

AVIATION...

WIDESPREAD CEILINGS AROUND 030 WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO WILL SPREAD INTO WESTERN
KANSAS AFTER 20Z. THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD THIS
EVENING AND LIKELY WILL GROW INTO AN ORGANIZED MESOSCALE COMPLEX
THAT WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL KANSAS BY 06Z. HAIL AND HIGH WINDS ARE
LIKELY WITH SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL END ACROSS
WESTERN KANSAS AFTER MIDNIGHT, BUT CEILINGS AROUND 010 AND
VISIBILITIES LOCALLY 3-5 MILES IN FOG WILL DEVELOP IN THE RAIN
COOLED OUTFLOW FROM DODGE CITY TO HAYS BEFORE SUNRISE. STRATUS WILL
BURN OFF TO SCT030 BY LATE MORNING MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  66  88  63  89 /  70  30  30  20
GCK  64  87  61  89 /  60  30  30  20
EHA  61  91  60  94 /  50  20  20  10
LBL  63  93  61  92 /  50  20  20  10
HYS  65  81  63  87 /  80  30  40  20
P28  68  92  68  88 /  70  30  40  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

FN33/01

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
146 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2009

KSZ061-062-074-075-084>086-151900-
HAMILTON-KEARNY-STANTON-GRANT-MORTON-STEVENS-SEWARD-
146 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2009 /1246 PM MDT SUN JUN 14 2009/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST
KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE BETWEEN 6 PM AND 9 PM. LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH WILL BE THE MAIN
THREATS, WHILE AN ISOLATED TORNADO IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

ON MONDAY A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL AGAIN MOVE TO FAR SOUTHWEST
AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE NORTH OF THE
FRONT. BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT
SHEAR AND INSTABILITY FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY THIS
EVENING.

&&

FOR MORE INFORMATION VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/DDC

KSZ030-043>045-063-064-076>078-080-087>089-151900-
TREGO-SCOTT-LANE-NESS-FINNEY-HODGEMAN-HASKELL-GRAY-FORD-KIOWA-
MEADE-CLARK-COMANCHE-
146 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL...
SOUTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE BETWEEN 8 PM AND 11 PM. LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH WILL BE THE MAIN
THREATS, WHILE AN ISOLATED TORNADO IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

ON MONDAY A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL AGAIN MOVE TO FAR SOUTHWEST
AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE NORTH OF THE
FRONT. BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT
SHEAR AND INSTABILITY FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS EVENING.

&&

FOR MORE INFORMATION VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/DDC

KSZ031-046-065-066-079-081-090-151900-
ELLIS-RUSH-PAWNEE-STAFFORD-EDWARDS-PRATT-BARBER-
146 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE BETWEEN 9 PM AND MIDNIGHT.
DAMAGING WIND IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT, AND
HAIL A SECONDARY THREAT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

ON MONDAY A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL AGAIN MOVE TO FAR SOUTHWEST
AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE NORTH OF THE
FRONT. BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT
SHEAR AND INSTABILITY FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS EVENING.

&&

FOR MORE INFORMATION VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/DDC

RUSSELL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
555 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0543 PM     TSTM WND GST     8 NNW SUBLETTE          37.59N 100.88W
06/14/2009  M70 MPH          HASKELL            KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

01

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
614 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0552 PM     TSTM WND DMG     TICE                    37.51N 100.71W
06/14/2009                   HASKELL            KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TWO POWER POLES WERE BLOWN DOWN. THEY WERE SNAPPED OFF AT
            THE BASE.

&&

GERARD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
622 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0605 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST COPELAND                37.54N 100.63W
06/14/2009  E80 MPH          GRAY               KS   PUBLIC

            FOUR INCH DIAMETER TREE LIMBS WERE BLOWN DOWN. HAIL UP TO
            THE SIZE OF QUARTERS FELL.

&&

01

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
653 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0651 PM     HAIL             3 NNE MINNEOLA          37.49N 100.00W
06/14/2009  E0.88 INCH       FORD               KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

01

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
710 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2009

KSZ078-080-088-089-150100-
CLARK-COMANCHE-FORD-KIOWA-
710 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2009

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN CLARK...NORTHWESTERN
COMANCHE...SOUTHEASTERN FORD AND SOUTHWESTERN KIOWA COUNTIES...

AT 710 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR BLOOM...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL IS POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LAT...LON 3761 9941 3731 9945 3738 9988 3753 9989
TIME...MOT...LOC 0010Z 272DEG 24KT 3747 9983

RITTERLING