Severe Thunderstorm Warning 59, NWS State College, PA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
442 PM EDT WED JUN 10 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE REGION
PROVIDING THE FOCUS FOR UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN FOR THE WEEKEND BEFORE HUMIDITY AND
MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN FOR NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 10 PM THIS EVENING/...
ISLD CONVECTION BREAKING OUT AGAIN ACROSS SRN COUNITES IN VERY WARM
AND MOIST AMS. WINDS/SHEAR REAMAINS ON THE WEAK SIDE WITH
MARINGALLY SEVERE PULSE STORM LASTING 20-30 MINS BEING THE PRIMARY MODE
THIS AFTN AND EARLY EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /10 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
ANTICIPATE CONVECTION WILL BE ONGOING THRU THIS EVE...AS BNDRY IS
PROGGED TO BE OVERHEAD AND.A SHORTWAVE SLIDES EAST ALONG IT...THUS
HAVE MAINTAINED LIKELY POPS FOR OVERNIGHT. INSTABILITY REMAINS
THRU OVERNIGHT...850MB LLVL JET IS WEAK WHICH MAY AID IN HIGHER
QPF. PWAT ANOMS OF 2 TO 3 STD DEV ABV NORMAL 06-12Z...WHICH
TRANSLATES INTO 1.75-2.05 PWATS COULD RESULT IN SOME LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL...FOCUSED ACROSS SUSQ-VALLEY. TEMPS WILL NOT COOL
MUCH...THUS HAVE MAINTAINED MID/UPPER 60S ACROSS SE TO UPPER
50S/LOW 60S CENTRAL/NORTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ANOTHER BUSY AFTERNOON ONGOING...BUT BASICALLY WILL CONTINUE
THINKING OF PREVIOUS FORECASTS.  WARM FRONT LIFTING ACROSS THE
AREA THU WILL KEEP THE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS GOING INTO AT LEAST
EARLY FRIDAY. OPERATIONAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLES AGREE IN KEEPING A
VERY HUMID AIRMASS IN PLACE WITH PWATS RUNNING BETWEEN ABOUT
1.25-1.75...OR ANYWHERE FROM 1-3 STD DEV ABOVE NORMAL. SHORT TERM
ATTENTION WILL NEED TO CENTER ON WHERE THE BOUNDARY SETS
UP...POSSIBLY PROVIDING THE FOCUS FOR LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
GEFS SHOWS A PRETTY HIGH PROBABILITY OF AT LEAST AN INCH OF RAIN
THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY CENTERED OVER MUCH OF EASTERN PA WHILE THE NEW
SREF SHOWS A SMALLER PROBABILITY IN ABOUT THE SAME TIME FRAME
CENTERED OVER CENTRAL PA. WITH CONVECTION LIKELY DRIVING THE
CIRCUMSTANCES...ITS IMPOSSIBLE AT THIS RANGE TO ACCURATELY ZERO
IN ON WHERE THE BIGGEST THREAT WILL BE BUT WITH SUCH A SOUPY
AIRMASS UPSTREAM POISED TO SET UP SHOP OVER THE AREA...THE
POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING RAINS CANNOT BE DISCOUNTED.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR SAT AND SUN WITH DRIER AIR AND
TEMPS THAT SHOULD RUN VERY NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS. UPPER FLOW
BEGINS TO AMPLIFY AGAIN BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A TROF GETS
ESTABLISHED OVER THE NERN US. THIS WILL MAKE US VULNERABLE TO SOME
SHOWERS TO BEGIN THE NEW WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AREA OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ARE MOVING TOWARD THE AREA FROM OHIO IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A WAVE RIDING ALONG THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
CURRENT CONDITIONS ARE VFR AT ALL SITES WITH SOME HAZE.

AS THE WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE STATE TONIGHT...RAIN AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. EXPEC
CONDITIONS TO FALL TO MVFR THEN IFR AFTER 11/06Z. THIS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD SO DID NOT
TRY TO GET TO CUTE TOWARD THE TAIL END OF THE FORECAST. MAINLY
MVFR CONDITIONS FOR THIS EVENT.

OUTLOOK...
THUR-FRI...MVFR OCNL IFR. PERIODS OF SHRA/TSRA.
SAT-SUN...VFR.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...LACORTE
NEAR TERM...GARTNER
SHORT TERM...GARTNER
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...TYBURSKI

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
543 AM EDT WED JUN 10 2009

PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-024>028-033>037-041-042-045-046-049>053-
056>059-063>066-110945-
WARREN-MCKEAN-POTTER-ELK-CAMERON-NORTHERN CLINTON-CLEARFIELD-
NORTHERN CENTRE-SOUTHERN CENTRE-CAMBRIA-BLAIR-HUNTINGDON-MIFFLIN-
JUNIATA-SOMERSET-BEDFORD-FULTON-FRANKLIN-TIOGA-NORTHERN LYCOMING-
SULLIVAN-SOUTHERN CLINTON-SOUTHERN LYCOMING-UNION-SNYDER-MONTOUR-
NORTHUMBERLAND-COLUMBIA-PERRY-DAUPHIN-SCHUYLKILL-LEBANON-CUMBERLAND-
ADAMS-YORK-LANCASTER-
543 AM EDT WED JUN 10 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

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