Severe Thunderstorm Warning 57, NWS State College, PA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
442 PM EDT WED JUN 10 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE REGION
PROVIDING THE FOCUS FOR UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN FOR THE WEEKEND BEFORE HUMIDITY AND
MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN FOR NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 10 PM THIS EVENING/...
ISLD CONVECTION BREAKING OUT AGAIN ACROSS SRN COUNITES IN VERY WARM
AND MOIST AMS. WINDS/SHEAR REAMAINS ON THE WEAK SIDE WITH
MARINGALLY SEVERE PULSE STORM LASTING 20-30 MINS BEING THE PRIMARY MODE
THIS AFTN AND EARLY EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /10 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
ANTICIPATE CONVECTION WILL BE ONGOING THRU THIS EVE...AS BNDRY IS
PROGGED TO BE OVERHEAD AND.A SHORTWAVE SLIDES EAST ALONG IT...THUS
HAVE MAINTAINED LIKELY POPS FOR OVERNIGHT. INSTABILITY REMAINS
THRU OVERNIGHT...850MB LLVL JET IS WEAK WHICH MAY AID IN HIGHER
QPF. PWAT ANOMS OF 2 TO 3 STD DEV ABV NORMAL 06-12Z...WHICH
TRANSLATES INTO 1.75-2.05 PWATS COULD RESULT IN SOME LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL...FOCUSED ACROSS SUSQ-VALLEY. TEMPS WILL NOT COOL
MUCH...THUS HAVE MAINTAINED MID/UPPER 60S ACROSS SE TO UPPER
50S/LOW 60S CENTRAL/NORTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ANOTHER BUSY AFTERNOON ONGOING...BUT BASICALLY WILL CONTINUE
THINKING OF PREVIOUS FORECASTS.  WARM FRONT LIFTING ACROSS THE
AREA THU WILL KEEP THE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS GOING INTO AT LEAST
EARLY FRIDAY. OPERATIONAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLES AGREE IN KEEPING A
VERY HUMID AIRMASS IN PLACE WITH PWATS RUNNING BETWEEN ABOUT
1.25-1.75...OR ANYWHERE FROM 1-3 STD DEV ABOVE NORMAL. SHORT TERM
ATTENTION WILL NEED TO CENTER ON WHERE THE BOUNDARY SETS
UP...POSSIBLY PROVIDING THE FOCUS FOR LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
GEFS SHOWS A PRETTY HIGH PROBABILITY OF AT LEAST AN INCH OF RAIN
THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY CENTERED OVER MUCH OF EASTERN PA WHILE THE NEW
SREF SHOWS A SMALLER PROBABILITY IN ABOUT THE SAME TIME FRAME
CENTERED OVER CENTRAL PA. WITH CONVECTION LIKELY DRIVING THE
CIRCUMSTANCES...ITS IMPOSSIBLE AT THIS RANGE TO ACCURATELY ZERO
IN ON WHERE THE BIGGEST THREAT WILL BE BUT WITH SUCH A SOUPY
AIRMASS UPSTREAM POISED TO SET UP SHOP OVER THE AREA...THE
POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING RAINS CANNOT BE DISCOUNTED.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR SAT AND SUN WITH DRIER AIR AND
TEMPS THAT SHOULD RUN VERY NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS. UPPER FLOW
BEGINS TO AMPLIFY AGAIN BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A TROF GETS
ESTABLISHED OVER THE NERN US. THIS WILL MAKE US VULNERABLE TO SOME
SHOWERS TO BEGIN THE NEW WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AREA OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ARE MOVING TOWARD THE AREA FROM OHIO IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A WAVE RIDING ALONG THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
CURRENT CONDITIONS ARE VFR AT ALL SITES WITH SOME HAZE.

AS THE WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE STATE TONIGHT...RAIN AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. EXPEC
CONDITIONS TO FALL TO MVFR THEN IFR AFTER 11/06Z. THIS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD SO DID NOT
TRY TO GET TO CUTE TOWARD THE TAIL END OF THE FORECAST. MAINLY
MVFR CONDITIONS FOR THIS EVENT.

OUTLOOK...
THUR-FRI...MVFR OCNL IFR. PERIODS OF SHRA/TSRA.
SAT-SUN...VFR.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...LACORTE
NEAR TERM...GARTNER
SHORT TERM...GARTNER
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...TYBURSKI

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
543 AM EDT WED JUN 10 2009

PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-024>028-033>037-041-042-045-046-049>053-
056>059-063>066-110945-
WARREN-MCKEAN-POTTER-ELK-CAMERON-NORTHERN CLINTON-CLEARFIELD-
NORTHERN CENTRE-SOUTHERN CENTRE-CAMBRIA-BLAIR-HUNTINGDON-MIFFLIN-
JUNIATA-SOMERSET-BEDFORD-FULTON-FRANKLIN-TIOGA-NORTHERN LYCOMING-
SULLIVAN-SOUTHERN CLINTON-SOUTHERN LYCOMING-UNION-SNYDER-MONTOUR-
NORTHUMBERLAND-COLUMBIA-PERRY-DAUPHIN-SCHUYLKILL-LEBANON-CUMBERLAND-
ADAMS-YORK-LANCASTER-
543 AM EDT WED JUN 10 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
444 PM EDT WED JUN 10 2009

PAZ025-026-033-034-102115-
BEDFORD PA-BLAIR PA-HUNTINGDON PA-SOMERSET PA-
444 PM EDT WED JUN 10 2009

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN SOMERSET...NORTHERN
BEDFORD...SOUTHERN BLAIR AND SOUTHWESTERN HUNTINGDON COUNTIES...

AT 441 PM EDT...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE ALONG A LINE FROM 10 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF WINDBER TO BEDFORD...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 30 MPH AND SMALL HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.
ALSO...VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL FALL FROM THESE STORMS...AND WILL CAUSE
WATER TO POND ON ROADS AND QUICKLY FILL ROADSIDE DITCHES AND SMALL
STREAMS.

THESE STORMS WILL STAY OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF EAST CENTRAL
SOMERSET COUNTY AND WEST CENTRAL BEDFORD COUNTY.

THIS WILL IMPACT I-99 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 3 AND 23.

THIS WILL ALSO IMPACT THE FOLLOWING MAJOR ROADS...ROUTE 30...ROUTE
220.

LAT...LON 4002 7885 4024 7875 4024 7867 4033 7863
      4044 7824 4018 7817

EXPERIMENTAL

FORECASTER: GARTNER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
446 PM EDT WED JUN 10 2009

PAZ024-025-102115-
BLAIR PA-CAMBRIA PA-
446 PM EDT WED JUN 10 2009

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT BLAIR AND CENTRAL CAMBRIA
COUNTIES...

AT 444 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
HOLLIDAYSBURG...MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AND HAIL UP TO DIME SIZE ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM. VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL FALL FROM THIS STORM...AND WILL CAUSE
WATER TO POND ON ROADS AND QUICKLY FILL ROADSIDE DITCHES AND SMALL
STREAMS. EXPECT INTENSE LIGHTNING FROM THIS STORM. DO NOT STAY IN THE
OPEN NOR SEEK SHELTER UNDER TREES WHEN LIGHTNING THREATENS...MOVE
INDOORS WHEN A THUNDERSTORM APPROACHES.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR NEWRY AROUND 505 PM...DUNCANSVILLE AROUND 510
PM AND HOLLIDAYSBURG AROUND 515 PM.

THIS WILL IMPACT I-99 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 19 AND 41.

THIS WILL ALSO IMPACT THE FOLLOWING MAJOR ROADS...ROUTE 22...ROUTE
220.

LAT...LON 4029 7854 4030 7856 4031 7857 4033 7862
      4047 7867 4063 7824 4037 7820 4029 7853

EXPERIMENTAL

FORECASTER: TYBURSKI

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
449 PM EDT WED JUN 10 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0333 PM     HAIL             3 SE YORK               39.93N 76.69W
06/10/2009  E0.88 INCH       YORK               PA   TRAINED SPOTTER

0333 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 SE YORK               39.93N 76.69W
06/10/2009                   YORK               PA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TRESS DOWN NEAR MILE MARKER 217 ON I-83

0350 PM     HAIL             WINDSOR                 39.92N 76.58W
06/10/2009  E0.88 INCH       YORK               PA   BROADCAST MEDIA

            NICKEL SIZE HAIL SHREDDED BRANCHES OFF TREES.

&&

MACH

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