Severe Thunderstorm Warning 108, NWS Cleveland, OH

000 
WWUS51 KCLE 200021
SVSCLE

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
821 PM EDT WED AUG 19 2009

OHC077-200031-
/O.CAN.KCLE.SV.W.0108.000000T0000Z-090820T0100Z/
HURON OH-
821 PM EDT WED AUG 19 2009

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHERN HURON COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...

LAT...LON 4152 8196 4128 8224 4129 8268 4145 8263
      4140 8252 4140 8247 4144 8237 4145 8224
      4149 8219 4153 8203
TIME...MOT...LOC 0021Z 224DEG 16KT 4137 8254 4136 8223

$$

OHC043-093-200100-
/O.CON.KCLE.SV.W.0108.000000T0000Z-090820T0100Z/
LORAIN OH-ERIE OH-
821 PM EDT WED AUG 19 2009

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM EDT
FOR EASTERN ERIE AND NORTHWESTERN LORAIN COUNTIES IN NORTH CENTRAL
OHIO...

AT 820 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING
WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM HURON TO SOUTH AMHERST...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.
PENNY SIZE HAIL MAY ALSO ACCOMPANY THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INCLUDE...AMHERST...
VERMILION...LORAIN...SHEFFIELD...SHEFFIELD LAKE AND AVON LAKE.

LAT...LON 4152 8196 4128 8224 4129 8268 4145 8263
      4140 8252 4140 8247 4144 8237 4145 8224
      4149 8219 4153 8203
TIME...MOT...LOC 0021Z 224DEG 16KT 4137 8254 4136 8223

$$

WILLARD

000 
WWUS51 KCLE 200039
SVSCLE

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
839 PM EDT WED AUG 19 2009

OHC043-093-200049-
/O.CAN.KCLE.SV.W.0108.000000T0000Z-090820T0100Z/
LORAIN OH-ERIE OH-
839 PM EDT WED AUG 19 2009

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR EASTERN ERIE AND NORTHWESTERN
LORAIN COUNTIES IN NORTH CENTRAL OHIO IS CANCELLED...

THE STORMS WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAVE WEAKENED AND NO LONGER
APPEARED TO BE SEVERE.

LAT...LON 4152 8196 4128 8224 4129 8268 4145 8263
      4140 8252 4140 8247 4144 8237 4145 8224
      4149 8219 4153 8203
TIME...MOT...LOC 0039Z 224DEG 16KT 4143 8246 4142 8215

$$

WILLARD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
746 PM EDT WED AUG 19 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS
OUR AREA EARLY FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPREAD OVER THE REGION ON
THE WEEKEND THEN SHIFT INTO THE SOUTHEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
SEE NEXT SECTION FOR UPDATE.

A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE AREA WILL
SHIFT BACK NORTH OF LAKE ERIE TONIGHT. A MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS
AND A LIMITED DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL JET MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH SUPPORT TO
PRODUCE SOME SCT SHRA/TSRA. LOWS NOT LIKELY TO DROP TOO MUCH DUE TO
ADDED CLOUDS AND DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY FLOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
UPDATED TO CLEAN UP WORDING FOR THURSDAY AT THE LAKE SHORE IN
NORTHEAST OHIO AND WENT WITH LIKELY POPS VERSUS ONLY CHANCE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...

INCREASED MOISTURE AND HEATING LOOK TO SET THE STAGE FOR NUMEROUS
TSRA TO DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON. WIND SHEAR JUST SUFFICIENT FOR
STRONG TO SOME LOCALLY SEVERE STORMS...ESPECIALLY WEST THIRD TO HALF
OF THE AREA FOR LATE THU AFTERNOON INTO THU NIGHT.  ANOTHER
RELATIVELY DIFFUSE COLD FRONTS TO MOVE WEST TO EAST ACROSS CWA LATE
THU NIGHT THROUGH FRI MORNING HELPING TO KEEP NUMEROUS TSRA GOING.

QUESTION OF POPS IN THE WEST FRI AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING AS
DIFFUSE NATURE OF THE FRONT MAY ALLOW ENOUGH MOISTURE TO HANG BACK
TO BE HELPED BY UPPER TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE AREA FOR SCT
CONVECTION TO BE POSSIBLE SO WILL NEED TO MAINTAIN A CHANCE POP FOR
THIS.

PRESENCE OF UPPER TROUGH AND GENERALLY CYCLONIC FLOW SHOULD WORK TO
ALLOW FOR SOME INSTABILITY SHRA/TSRA TO OCCUR ON SAT...ESPECIALLY
EAST THIRD.  TEMPS COOL TO ABOUT NORMAL FOR SAT. MODELS REMAIN ON
TRACK TO CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHRA IN THE SNOWBELT SAT
NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER THROUGH MOST OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD.  THIS WILL KEEP DRY WEATHER OVER THE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH THE LATE WEEKEND/EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.  THE MODELS
ARE SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH THIS RUN IN TERMS OF TEMPS.  THIS IS
REFLECTED IN THE GUIDANCE.  I WILL TREND TEMPERATURES DOWN SLIGHTLY
TO REFLECT THE CHANGE IN THE MODELS.

MODELS INDICATE A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT MOST OF THE PCPN WILL REMAIN NORTH OF
LAKE ERIE BUT I WILL INTRODUCE A CHANCE LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
TO REFLECT THE TREND.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NON VFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES FOR THE TAF PERIOD. WATCHING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE WARM FRONT AND THEN THE THUNDERSTORMS
OVER INDIANA. THE STORMS NEAR THE WARM FRONT ARE STRUGGLING MOVING
NORTH. THE ACTIVITY OVER INDIANA SHOULD WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO
THE TOLEDO AND FINDLAY AREAS AROUND 05Z. SOME MVFR CEILINGS AND
FOG OVERNIGHT. ON THE EDGE ABOUT HOW QUICKLY THE ACTIVITY WILL
START ON THURSDAY. IT SHOULD START BY EARLY AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH
CONVECTION AND PATCHY LATE NIGHT/MORNING FOG/HAZE.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING OVER THE LAKE AT THE MOMENT WITH LIGHT
NORTHEAST WINDS. THIS WILL CHANGE OVERNIGHT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE LAKE AND INTO CANADA. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL
PREVAIL ON THE LAKE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT SWEEPS
ACROSS THE LAKE FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGHEST WINDS/WAVES WILL BE ACROSS THE
OPEN WATERS BUT THE NEARSHORE WATERS MAY GET CLOSE TO SMALL CRAFT
CRITERIA THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY. MAY END UP NEEDING
ADVISORIES BUT TOO EARLY AT THIS POINT. BEHIND THE FRONT WINDS WILL
QUICKLY TURN TO THE NORTH AND I WOULD EXPECT SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS
TO PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE AND WEAK WINDS
WILL PREVAIL BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...ADAMS
NEAR TERM...LOMBARDY
SHORT TERM...ADAMS
LONG TERM...GARNET
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...LEINS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
459 PM EDT WED AUG 19 2009

LEZ061-142>149-162>169-OHZ003-006>014-017>023-027>033-036>038-047-
089-PAZ001>003-202100-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO BUFFALO NY-
MAUMEE BAY TO RENO BEACH OH-RENO BEACH TO THE ISLANDS OH-
THE ISLANDS TO VERMILION OH-VERMILION TO AVON POINT OH-
AVON POINT TO WILLOWICK OH-WILLOWICK TO GENEVA-ON-THE LAKE OH-GENEVA-
ON-THE-LAKE TO CONNEAUT OH-CONNEAUT OH TO RIPLEY NY-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM MAUMEE BAY TO RENO BEACH-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM RENO BEACH TO THE ISLANDS-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM THE ISLANDS TO VERMILION-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM VERMILION TO AVON POINT-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM AVON POINT TO WILLOWICK-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM WILLOWICK TO GENEVA-ON-THE-LAKE-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM GENEVA-ON-THE-LAKE TO CONNEAUT-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM CONNEAUT OH TO RIPLEY NY-LUCAS-WOOD-
OTTAWA-SANDUSKY-ERIE OH-LORAIN-CUYAHOGA-LAKE-GEAUGA-ASHTABULA INLAND-
HANCOCK-SENECA-HURON-MEDINA-SUMMIT-PORTAGE-TRUMBULL-WYANDOT-CRAWFORD-
RICHLAND-ASHLAND-WAYNE-STARK-MAHONING-MARION-MORROW-HOLMES-KNOX-
ASHTABULA LAKESHORE-NORTHERN ERIE-SOUTHERN ERIE-CRAWFORD PA-
459 PM EDT WED AUG 19 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR LAKE ERIE...NORTH CENTRAL
OHIO...NORTHEAST OHIO...NORTHWEST OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN
OHIO THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT FROM THE
MIDWEST. THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT FOR EXTREME NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST
PENNSYLVANIA.

THE MAIN THREAT FROM THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE STRONG
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

LOMBARDY