Severe Thunderstorm Warning 90, NWS Birmingham, AL

000 
WWUS54 KBMX 021942
SVSBMX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
242 PM CDT THU APR 2 2009

ALC063-107-119-022000-
/O.CON.KBMX.SV.W.0090.000000T0000Z-090402T2000Z/
SUMTER AL-GREENE AL-PICKENS AL-
242 PM CDT THU APR 2 2009

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 300 PM CDT
FOR SOUTHERN PICKENS...GREENE AND NORTHERN SUMTER COUNTIES...

AT 242 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL
SIZE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THESE STORMS
WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM MEMPHIS TO SUMTERVILLE...OR
ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 11 MILES WEST OF ALICEVILLE TO 7 MILES
NORTHWEST OF LIVINGSTON...MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  BLUFFPORT...WARSAW...GEORGE DOWNER AIRPORT AND GAINESVILLE BY 250
  PM CDT...
  MCMULLEN...GARDEN...TISHABEE AND WEST GREENE BY 255 PM CDT...
  ALLISON BY 300 PM CDT...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM. IF YOU ARE IN ITS PATH...PREPARE
IMMEDIATELY FOR DAMAGING WINDS...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...AND DEADLY CLOUD
TO GROUND LIGHTNING. PEOPLE OUTSIDE SHOULD MOVE TO A SHELTER...
PREFERABLY INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING BUT AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM CDT THURSDAY EVENING
FOR WESTERN ALABAMA.

&&

LAT...LON 3317 8832 3331 8785 3282 8783 3276 8787
      3276 8783 3265 8783 3253 8840
TIME...MOT...LOC 1942Z 249DEG 39KT 3307 8832 3269 8823

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1250 PM CDT THU APR 2 2009

.UPDATE...FOR 18Z AVIATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

ACTIVE WEATHER PERIOD EXPECTED AS A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES INTO AND
ACROSS THE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.  STORM PREDICTION
CENTER HAS ENTIRE AREA OUTLOOKED FOR MODERATE RISK.  MOIST AND
UNSTABLE AIR MASS ALREADY IN PLACE AND UPPER SUPPORT WILL MOVE IN
LATER IN THE DAY AND EARLY TONIGHT.  WE COULD SEE ISOLATED SEVERE
STORMS ANYWHERE THIS MORNING...WITH MORE ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER
LATER IN THE DAY.  FOR BETTER TIMING OF ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER WE
USED OUR LOCAL WRF MODEL...EXPECT WESTERN SECTIONS UNDER THE GUN FROM
3 PM UNTIL 7 PM...CENTRAL SECTIONS 6 PM UNTIL 10 PM...THEN EASTERN
SECTIONS 9 PM UNTIL 1 AM AND THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH
SQUALL LINE (COLD FRONT). PRIMARY THREATS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS...
LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES.  ACTIVITY WILL SHIFT QUICKLY TO
OUR EAST BY 2 AM AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE WEST.  BE SURE TO
HAVE A WEATHER ACTION PLAN READY AS WATCHES AND WARNINGS WILL
LIKELY BE REQUIRED. HIGHS TODAY IN THE 70S...LOWS TONIGHT IN THE 50S.
LAKE WIND ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT FROM NOON UNTIL MIDNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MUCH QUIETER AND DRIER PERIOD EXPECTED AS
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO AND ACROSS THE AREA.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES INTO AND ACROSS THE
AREA ON SUNDAY AND SHIFTS TO THE EAST ON MONDAY.  MODELS HAVE
TRENDED STRONGER WITH THIS SYSTEM AND BETTER UPPER SUPPORT IS
INDICATED.  A FEW SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
SYSTEM ON SUNDAY.  DRIER AIR EXPECTED LATER MONDAY AND TUESDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA.  RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS ON
WEDNESDAY WITH NEXT SYSTEM EXPECTED JUST BEYOND THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

EXPECT SCT SH/TS DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON...AFFECTING ALL
SITES...WITH GENERALLY MVFR CEILINGS. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL
INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS. AS A FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST TONIGHT...EXPECT THE COVERAGE OF CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY TO INCREASE...GOING FROM SCATTERED ACTIVITY TO A BROKEN
SQUALL LINE ALONG THE FRONT. SOME STORMS COULD BE SEVERE. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE STATE...ENDING BY
03-05Z ACROSS THE WEST...AND 05-06Z ACROSS THE EAST. BEHIND THE
FRONT...BR AND LOW CLOUDS AT 1KFT IS EXPECTED.

14

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR ALL AREAS FROM NOON UNTIL MIDNIGHT.

&&

50

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1158 AM CDT THU APR 2 2009

ALZ011>015-017>050-030100-
AUTAUGA-BARBOUR-BIBB-BLOUNT-BULLOCK-CALHOUN-CHAMBERS-CHEROKEE-
CHILTON-CLAY-CLEBURNE-COOSA-DALLAS-ELMORE-ETOWAH-FAYETTE-GREENE-HALE-
JEFFERSON-LAMAR-LEE-LOWNDES-MACON-MARENGO-MARION-MONTGOMERY-PERRY-
PICKENS-PIKE-RANDOLPH-RUSSELL-SHELBY-ST CLAIR-SUMTER-TALLADEGA-
TALLAPOOSA-TUSCALOOSA-WALKER-WINSTON-
1158 AM CDT THU APR 2 2009

...MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE STORMS ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE COUNTIES SERVED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BIRMINGHAM.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE DAY AHEAD OF
AND ALONG A STRONG COLD FRONT WHICH WILL PASS THROUGH ALABAMA LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS...ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS EAST CENTRAL...PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS
TO 45 MPH.

BY 2 PM CDT...A SQUALL LINE WILL BE APPROACHING THE ALABAMA
MISSISSIPPI STATE LINE.  THESE STORMS SHOULD AFFECT THE WESTERN
COUNTIES OF ALABAMA FROM 2 PM UNTIL 5 PM...THE CENTRAL COUNTIES OF
ALABAMA BETWEEN 4 PM AND 8 PM...AND THE EASTERN COUNTIES OF ALABAMA
BETWEEN 8 PM AND MIDNIGHT. THESE STORMS WILL CARRY WITH THEM THE
POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A
STRONG TORNADO.

RIVER FLOODING CONTINUES FOR SEVERAL COUNTIES IN SOUTHWEST ALABAMA.
PLEASE REFER TO RIVER FLOOD STATEMENTS FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS
REGARDING YOUR AREA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

RIVERS WILL REMAIN IN FLOOD THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY EVENING FOR
SEVERAL COUNTIES IN SOUTHWEST ALABAMA. PLEASE REFER TO RIVER FLOOD
STATEMENTS FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS REGARDING YOUR AREA.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON...LASTING
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT WILL LIKELY
BE NECESSARY ON TODAY.

27

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1225 PM CDT THU APR 2 2009

ALZ018-019-025-026-021815-
CALHOUN-ETOWAH-SHELBY-ST. CLAIR-
1225 PM CDT THU APR 2 2009

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR CALHOUN...ETOWAH...SHELBY AND ST.
CLAIR COUNTIES UNTIL 115 PM CDT...

AT 1225 PM CDT...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IS TRACKING A STRONG
THUNDERSTORM NEAR RIVERSIDE...OR NEAR PELL CITY...MOVING NORTHEAST AT
35 MPH.

PEA SIZE HAIL IS EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

* LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH INCLUDE...
  RIVERSIDE.
  NEELY HENRY DAM.
  OHATCHEE.
  WILLIAMS.
  MARKTON.
  SOUTHSIDE.

THIS THUNDERSTORM COULD INTENSIFY QUICKLY...SO BE READY TO ACT IF A
WARNING IS ISSUED.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...COMMERCIAL RADIO...OR YOUR LOCAL
TELEVISION STATIONS FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS
CONCERNING THIS WEATHER SITUATION.