Severe Thunderstorm Warning 66, NWS Birmingham, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
432 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2009

.DISCUSSION...

SURFACE LOW LOCATED OVER NORTHERN MS WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CURRENTLY PUSHING ACROSS WEST CENTRAL ALABAMA THIS MORNING. THIS LOW
WILL MOVE NORTHEAST...TRACKING ACROSS NORTHERN ALABAMA AND INTO THE
VIRGINIAS BY THIS EVENING. WARM MOIST AIR SURGING NORTHWARD AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM...WITH CURRENT DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S ACROSS MUCH OF
SOUTHWEST CENTRAL ALABAMA. AS THIS SYSTEM PUSHES EAST...EXPECT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA.
EXPECTING ACTIVITY TO HAVE ENDED ALONG AND NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE
20 CORRIDOR BY 1PM AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTHWARD.

THIS BOUNDARY WILL SINK SOUTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT...SUPPRESSING
ACTIVITY TO THE NORTHERN GULF COAST...AND KEEPING MOST OF THE AREA
DRY THROUGH AT LEAST MIDNIGHT. ANOTHER IMPULSE WILL DEVELOP WITHIN
THE SUBTROP JET OVERNIGHT NEAR THE COAST...AND MOVE NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN CENTRAL ALABAMA FRIDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO SPREAD BACK INTO THE AREA AS THE EXISTING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTHWARD. WITH A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET MOVING
EASTWARD WITH THE DISTURBANCE...THE BEST LOCATION OF ANY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN
COUNTIES...GENERALLY SOUTHEAST OF INTERSTATE 85. THIS WILL DEPEND ON
THE TRACK OF THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE/SFC LOW...AS THE BEST SVR
POTENTIAL WILL BE EAST AND SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM.

ANOTHER SURGE OF MOIST SOUTHERLY AIR IS EXPECTED LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AS THE NEXT STRONGER SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY. THROUGH THE EARLY
EVENING...EXPECT SOUTHERLY FLOW TO INCREASE AND A LOW LEVEL JET
RAPIDLY STRENGTHENS TO OUR WEST. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BEGIN MOVING INTO WEST CENTRAL ALABAMA AROUND MIDNIGHT AND PROGRESS
EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW QUICKLY THE AIRMASS WILL RECOVER AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM...AND WHETHER ANY DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE FINER DETAILS
OF THE MESOSCALE FRIDAY AND HOW QUICKLY THE WARM FRONT AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM MOVES NORTHWARD.

THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH QUICKLY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION...WITH ACTIVITY ENDING ALONG THE INTERSTATE 65
CORRIDOR BY MIDDAY...AND THE INTERSTATE 85 CORRIDOR BY LATE
AFTERNOON. COOLER...DRIER AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WITH
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR SUNDAY. WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW
AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPS RETURN BY MONDAY. THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM LOOKS
TO AFFECT THE AREA TUESDAY.

14

&&

.AVIATION...

06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

MOST OF THE IMPACT WEATHER WILL AFFECT AREA FROM 08Z UNTIL 14Z. A
SQUALL LINE WILL ENTER WEST ALABAMA ARND 08Z AND PUSH EASTWARD
ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA. A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF
SQUALL LINE WILL PRODUCE GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 14 TO 22 KNOTS.
MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL PREVAIL AT NORTHERN TAF SITES SINCE THIS
AREA WILL REMAIN IN SHOWERS AND BE LOCATED NORTH OF WARM FRONT. VFR
CONDS WILL PREVAIL AT MGM AND TOI THRU 09Z...BUT MVFR CIGS WILL
LIKELY DEVELOP AFTER 09Z AS AIR MASS MOISTENS. SQUALL LINE WILL
PRODUCE LCL WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 KNOTS.

EXPECT IMPROVING CONDS FOR AREAS WEST OF I-65 BY 15Z AS SHORT WAVE
TROF AND ASSOCIATED RAIN MOVES EAST OF I-65. VFR CONDS OVER MOST
AREAS BY 18Z AS WEAK LOW LEVEL TROF PUSHES THRU AREA AND BRINGS IN
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR.

58/ROSE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     74  54  67  62  69 /  80  30  60  80  80
ANNISTON    73  54  71  63  71 /  80  40  70  70  80
BIRMINGHAM  73  57  71  64  68 /  80  50  60  80  70
TUSCALOOSA  75  57  76  62  66 /  70  60  50  80  60
CALERA      73  57  71  61  68 /  80  60  60  80  70
AUBURN      70  56  67  62  72 /  80  60  80  70  80
MONTGOMERY  74  60  71  65  70 /  80  80  80  80  80
TROY        72  57  71  65  72 /  80  80  80  80  80

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR ALL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA THROUGH 10 AM THURSDAY.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
135 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2009

ALZ011>015-017>050-261130-
AUTAUGA-BARBOUR-BIBB-BLOUNT-BULLOCK-CALHOUN-CHAMBERS-CHEROKEE-
CHILTON-CLAY-CLEBURNE-COOSA-DALLAS-ELMORE-ETOWAH-FAYETTE-GREENE-HALE-
JEFFERSON-LAMAR-LEE-LOWNDES-MACON-MARENGO-MARION-MONTGOMERY-PERRY-
PICKENS-PIKE-RANDOLPH-RUSSELL-SHELBY-ST CLAIR-SUMTER-TALLADEGA-
TALLAPOOSA-TUSCALOOSA-WALKER-WINSTON-
135 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE COUNTIES SERVED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BIRMINGHAM.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AFTER
3 AM...AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO ALABAMA. ISOLATED
TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WINDS STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE FOR
AREAS GENERALLY NEAR AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20. THE BEST
INSTABILITY WILL BE FOR AREAS WEST OF I-65.

THE THREAT OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ALSO OVERNIGHT. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
TOTALS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE...RESULTING IN FLASH
FLOODING.

HAVE YOUR NOAA WEATHER RADIO ON ALERT OR MONITOR TELEVISION AND RADIO
REPORTS IN CASE SEVERE OR FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS ARE ISSUED DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL ALABAMA...
FROM THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. ALL SEVERE WEATHER THREATS ARE
POSSIBLE INCLUDING TORNADOES...DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT THERE ARE AT LEAST
THREE WINDOWS OF OPPORTUNITY FOR SEVERE WEATHER.

THE FIRST WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY WILL BE WINDING DOWN THURSDAY
MORNING. THESE STORMS ARE A CARRYOVER FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE
STORMS SHOULD BE WEAKENING WITH TIME...BUT THERE WILL BE A SMALL
THREAT WINDOW THROUGH 10 OR 11 AM. THE PRIMARY THREATS WILL BE
DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND HEAVY RAINFALL. THE STORMS WILL
PUSH SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA BY NOON.

THE SECOND SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT WINDOW OF APPEARS TO BE FROM
MIDNIGHT THROUGH 10 AM FRIDAY MORNING.  THE PRIMARY THREATS
ARE DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

THE THIRD...AND MOST SIGNIFICANT THREAT...WILL BE FROM ROUGHLY 4 PM
FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH NOON SATURDAY.  ALL FACETS OF SEVERE
WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE...INCLUDING TORNADOES...DAMAGING WINDS...
LARGE HAIL...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

DUE TO THE MULTIPLE WAVES OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN OVER A PROLONGED
PERIOD...WITH STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES...
FLASH FLOODING IS A SIGNIFICANT THREAT BEFORE THE RAIN MOVES OUT ON
SATURDAY. FINALLY...DEPENDING ON WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAIN ENDS UP
FALLING...RIVER FLOODING MAY DEVELOP AND CONTINUE BEYOND SATURDAY FOR
SEVERAL MORE DAYS.

MAKE SURE THAT YOUR SEVERE WEATHER PLANS ARE IN PLACE AND BE READY
TO TAKE ACTION IF WARNINGS ARE ISSUED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT WILL BE
NEEDED SEVERAL TIMES...FROM TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

75

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
536 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0330 AM     TSTM WND DMG     6 SW FAYETTE            33.63N 87.91W
03/26/2009                   FAYETTE            AL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            STRUCTURAL DAMAGE TO HOME ON BRAZAEL RD AND ANOTHER HOME
            ON JUNKINS RD...EXTENT OF DAMAGE UNKNOWN AT THIS
            TIME...CORRECTED FOR LOCATION.

&&

GOLDEN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
542 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0415 AM     TSTM WND DMG     PARRISH                 33.73N 87.28W
03/26/2009                   WALKER             AL   AMATEUR RADIO

            TREES DOWN ON POWERLINES CAUSING POWER OUTAGES IN THE
            CITY.

0512 AM     TSTM WND DMG     ALABASTER               33.25N 86.82W
03/26/2009                   SHELBY             AL   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREE DOWN ON MOBILE HOME ON 5TH AVE SE.

&&

GOLDEN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
548 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0520 AM     HAIL             6 NNW CHELSEA           33.40N 86.67W
03/26/2009  E0.25 INCH       SHELBY             AL   BROADCAST MEDIA

            REPORTED IN THE EAGLE POINT COMMUNITY.

&&

GOLDEN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
616 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0505 AM     TSTM WND DMG     HELENA                  33.29N 86.85W
03/26/2009                   SHELBY             AL   AMATEUR RADIO

            TREES DOWN BLOCKING ROY DR AND WAGE ST.

&&

GOLDEN

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>