Severe Thunderstorm Warning 238, NWS Birmingham, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
700 AM CDT THU MAY 7 2009

.UPDATE...FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

THIS MORNINGS ACTIVITY WILL PROVIDE A NICE FOCUSING MECH FOR
STRONGER AND ISOLATED SEVERE ACTIVITY AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON.
LOOKING AT PROGS...AREAS SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY WILL BE ABLE TO
GENERATE SUMMER-LIKE INSTABILITY PARAMETERS GRANTED THEY SEE SOME
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON SUNSHINE. OBVIOUSLY...THE MORE SURFACE
HEATING THE STEEPER THE LOW LEVEL LAPSE WILL BECOME BY MID
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL DEFINITELY GET STORMS GOING AFTER LUNCH...AND
THEY COULD BE QUITE NUMEROUS AS WE GO TOWARDS THE EVENING. IM NOT
TOO IMPRESSED BY THE UPPER LAPSE RATES AT THIS JUNCTURE...BUT WITH
MID LEVEL DRY AIR IN PLACE...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SKINNIER CAPE
VALUES ALOFT TO BECOME MUCH FATTER...ALLOWING FOR A MORE ROBUST
HAIL THREAT. OUTSIDE OF AN EXITING JET ALOFT...THE SHEAR
PARAMETERS ARE NOT IMPRESSIVE...ESPECIALLY IN THE LOW LEVELS. THIS
WOULD LEAD ME TO BELIEVE THAT THE STORMS MAY HAVE TROUBLE GETTING
ORGANIZED. HOWEVER...CLEARLY SEEING THE BOUNDARY IN PLACE...WOULD
TEND TO THINK THAT STORM ORGANIZATION WILL BE IN THE CARDS. MODELS
REALLY SEEM TO STRUGGLE WITH LOW LEVEL HELICITY VALUES AROUND A
BOUNDARY...SO I WOULD NOT TAKE ANY SEVERE THREAT OFF THE TABLE AT
THIS JUNCTURE...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE LAST WEEK WORTH OF ACTIVITY.
THE STORMS WILL GENERALLY FORM ALONG THE FOCUS BOUNDARY AND DRIFT
SLOWLY TO THE SOUTHEAST. GIVEN THAT THE SHEAR VECTORS ARE ON THE
WEAK SIDE AND THE UPPER LAPSE RATES ARE FAIRLY MOIST
ADIABATIC...WILL TEND TO STICK TO THE THEORY THAT THE STORMS WILL
BE A BIT MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN THAN IN PREVIOUS OVERNIGHT PERIODS.

LOOKS LIKE WE WILL CATCH A MUCH NEEDED REST ON FRIDAY AND PERHAPS
FOR A GOOD PART OF THE WEEKEND AS DRIER AIR PUSHES IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. IT WILL WARM SIGNIFICANTLY WITH THE WEAK RIDGING NOSING
IN SO HIGHS IN THE 90S WILL BE THE FORECAST...ESPECIALLY SOUTH.

THE BREAK COMES TO AN END QUICK BY MONDAY AS YET ANOTHER SAGGING
BOUNDARY AND JET STREAK SLOWLY PUSHES OVER CENTRAL ALABAMA. FOR
NOW...I AM NOT SEEING ANYTHING ORGANIZED AS FAR AS A WIDESPREAD SEVERE
THREAT...BUT WE WILL CERTAINLY HAVE TO WATCH CAREFULLY AS IT IS
THAT TIME OF YEAR. MODELS SEEM TO BE IN DECENT AGREEMENT THAT THE
FRONT WILL CLEAR THE AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AND DRY AIR WILL
MOVE INTO THE AREA...BUT DONT WANT TO BITE TOO EARLY.

&&

.AVIATION...12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL SLOWLY SHIFT SOUTHWARD
THROUGH CENTRAL ALABAMA TODAY. IFR CONDITIONS WILL START OFF THE
TAF PERIOD WITH A SLOW RISE ON THE CEILINGS AND VIS THROUGH 18Z.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 20 THIS AFTERNOON. SOME MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO
RETURN AFTER 06Z.

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

17/88

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
532 AM CDT THU MAY 7 2009

ALZ011>015-017>050-081032-
AUTAUGA-BARBOUR-BIBB-BLOUNT-BULLOCK-CALHOUN-CHAMBERS-CHEROKEE-
CHILTON-CLAY-CLEBURNE-COOSA-DALLAS-ELMORE-ETOWAH-FAYETTE-GREENE-HALE-
JEFFERSON-LAMAR-LEE-LOWNDES-MACON-MARENGO-MARION-MONTGOMERY-PERRY-
PICKENS-PIKE-RANDOLPH-RUSSELL-SHELBY-ST CLAIR-SUMTER-TALLADEGA-
TALLAPOOSA-TUSCALOOSA-WALKER-WINSTON-
532 AM CDT THU MAY 7 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE COUNTIES SERVED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BIRMINGHAM.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA ON THURSDAY
FROM AROUND NOON UNTIL 10 PM.  THE MAIN THREAT WITH THESE STORMS
WILL BE STRONG DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL.  THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR
DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20
DURING THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON AND ALONG THE HIGHWAY 80 AND
INTERSTATE 85 CORRIDORS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
HOURS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT MAY BE NEEDED
ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

17/KLAWS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
504 AM CDT THU MAY 7 2009

ALZ035-036-041-043-071045-
AUTAUGA-CHILTON-COOSA-ELMORE-
504 AM CDT THU MAY 7 2009

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR AUTAUGA...CHILTON...COOSA AND ELMORE
COUNTIES UNTIL 545 AM CDT...

AT 502 AM CDT...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IS TRACKING A STRONG
THUNDERSTORM NEAR WELONA...OR 13 MILES EAST OF CLANTON...MOVING
SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

ONE HALF INCH DIAMETER HAIL AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING
ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...COMMERCIAL RADIO...OR YOUR LOCAL
TELEVISION STATIONS FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS
CONCERNING THIS WEATHER SITUATION.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
512 AM CDT THU MAY 07 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0447 AM     HAIL             10 SW ROCKFORD          32.79N 86.34W
05/07/2009  E0.25 INCH       COOSA              AL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            SMALL HAIL REPORTED AT KELLYS CROSSROADS BY STATE EMA

&&

KLAWS

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